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Comadreja Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-13-04 12:50 AM
Original message
Howard Dean and Systems Theory...interesting indeed
From a Deaniac Blogger;

A friend from grad school and I were discussing the Dean rise and fall, and
started looking at the whole thing from the standpoint of Systems Theory.
Systems Theory says that natural systems, including human groups (like the
U.S. for one example) behave in set ways. One characteristic you might have
heard of is homeostasis, for instance.
Anyways, we started talking about Dean, Bush, and the late surge of Kerry. I
noted two things: Dean's fall seemed a bit mirrored to me by a sudden
downturn in Bush's polling numbers. And secondly, Kerry has supplanted Dean
as the front-runner, but I don't think he did it as the "anti-Dean".
So here is my hypothesis - Dean's rise was as a balance to an extreme
movement on Bush's part. I'm not sure what all characteristics, or sets of
polarities this is about altogether, but the one that came up for me was
truth/honesty. I've always been wary of what Bush said. But, for a long time
what he said could only hypothetically be said to be a lie. We couldn't know
for certain what the results of the tax cut would be. We wouldn't know for
certain there were no WMD's in Iraq until we got in. I had MY expert
opinions on both of those, but the core of America seemed to say "OK, we'll
trust you for a little while". But over the last 12 months it has gotten
clearer and clearer that he is lying. People without jobs know that the
economy sucks. People who watch the news and listen to David Kay say there
are no WMD's in Iraq now KNOW that the President just can't seem to give up
on this lie. He even says things with an odd smirk, at times at which it
seems horrendously inappropriate.
And as the one side of the polarity grows in energy, the other side,
truth/honesty grows in balance, and is embodied in the person of Howard
Dean. I think if he had not stepped forward, somehow someone else would
have. It would have had to happen. Gov. Dean struck me as the most honest
politician I had heard. He told me, and the America public, truthes. Even if
we didn't want to hear them. Many did want to hear them (like me). The truth
is strong, and addictive. That is why we aren't Dean supporters, we are
Deaniacs.
Now, having endured the last month, with Dean dropping, Kerry rising, and
Kerry winning (all on what seems to be little substance at all), I've come
to the conclusion that Kerry is not the anti-Dean. No Democrat ever was
going to be. The anti-Dean was there all along, George W. Bush. And Dean was
the anti-Bush. Dean has come in and spoke the truth to power that has taken
the legs out of Bush (finally!). But I think the American public as a whole
is uncomfortable with this level of truth-telling. A good friend of mine, a
very wise woman, says "truth is a dish most people never develop a taste
for". And that is why I think we are seeing the emergence of a center
between Bush and Dean - namely Kerry.
Kerry says a lot of words. Speaks rhetoric, makes promises. He speaks like
we like our politicians to speak. It is "spin", that fuzzy ground between
lies and truth. Bill Clinton was excellent at it. Make us feel good enough
to just go about our daily business, don't outright lie to us, just market
it so we feel OK about things. You know, how Kellogg's says that Froot Loops
is part of "this healthy breakfast" while pointing to it surrounded by a
grapefruit and milk. They don't say "Froot Loops is health food for your
kids". That would be going too far. Sort of like Bush does.
Anyway, that is my premise. We Deaniacs like truthtelling just a bit more
than the average American. It is not part of our culture to be so honest, or
so sincere. That is why you've heard so many press people calling him "odd"
or "strange". I think it's a sad commentary on our culture, but at least in
my mind it explains why this has all been happening.





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Straight Shooter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-13-04 12:51 AM
Response to Original message
1. Now if we could only get the media to read this blog post 700 times
If you know what I mean.
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Comadreja Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-13-04 01:11 AM
Response to Reply #1
4. I'm not going to let them sour me on democracy
But the GOP political machine seems has become so practiced at destruction they could make anyone look bad. How long would George Washington hold up to KKKarl Rove's terminator attack politics?
Ther're even moving to block MoveOn's ads. I think that the press and hind-sighted pundits will have much kinder words for Howard dean after the fact, and the GOP will mock the DLC for stonewalling Dean.

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Guaranteed Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-13-04 12:58 AM
Response to Original message
2. Great post...I think you've got a point
Ted Rall wrote an article talking about the same phenomenon you're relating, that politics is balanced....Bush's extremism was balanced by an equal opposition pulling on the other side.
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Melodybe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-13-04 01:05 AM
Response to Reply #2
3. This is 100% true, Dean is the anti-Bush.
Thanks for posting, I have been thinking something similar to this for the last few weeks, nice to see that I am not alone.
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maggrwaggr Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-13-04 01:40 AM
Response to Reply #3
9. so who is the anti-Kerry?
nt
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King of New Orleans Donating Member (991 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-13-04 02:52 AM
Response to Reply #9
12. The anti-Kerry in this theory
would be former Senator William Cohen of Maine.
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Atlant Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-13-04 08:45 AM
Response to Reply #9
16. Kerry. (NT)
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Rich Hunt Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-13-04 10:24 AM
Response to Reply #16
18. LOL
:)
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westcoastbias Donating Member (46 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-13-04 01:15 AM
Response to Original message
5. Different shades of dishonesty
To some degree, we are all dishonest, so to most, Dean is no different than anyone else. People say all politicians are all alike. But I agree that Dean is more straight forward about our problems. We can't pull out of Iraq, we can't give out tax cuts, and Medicare is a terribly managed, but terribly needed program. Kerry's view changes with each political storm, and his coziness with big business is way more than I can stomach. Of course, Dean accepted money from special interests just like Kerry. That is what most anyone will tell you, and they are right. When you look at that issue closer Kerry kept his speaking fees and his campaign accepted hundreds of thousands of dollars. Compare this to Dean's pittance, most of which went to public schools. If you are not willing to bring an open mind to this process and take a close look at the issues, you are not going to see the varying shades of gray.

By the way, I'm an Edwards supporter. He is a shade between Kerry and Dean. You should be able to guess who my second choice is.
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Straight Shooter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-13-04 01:23 AM
Response to Reply #5
6. Welcome to DU!
Thoughtful post. Beware of venturing into the hinterland of some other threads :)

:hi:
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westcoastbias Donating Member (46 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-13-04 01:33 AM
Response to Reply #6
7. Baptism by fire
Thanks. I already got my first warning a few days ago when I compared a candidate and his supporters to the "living dead." Kind of a "Night of the living dead" thing. It only took a minute.
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madfloridian Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-13-04 01:34 AM
Response to Original message
8. Yes! This part.
SNIP..."Anyway, that is my premise. We Deaniacs like truthtelling just a bit more
than the average American.
It is not part of our culture to be so honest, or
so sincere. That is why you've heard so many press people calling him "odd"
or "strange". I think it's a sad commentary on our culture, but at least in
my mind it explains why this has all been happening...."END SNIP

Yes, I have noticed that in our group here. My doctor is in our group, and today he said to the effect that every doggone one of us was outspoken to a fault.

That is a kind of honesty in itself. Not always pleasant, but very very real.
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tishaLA Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-13-04 01:40 AM
Response to Original message
10. I'm not a fan of Luhman or systems theory
too amoral.

I like Gov. Dean a bit more than that claptrap.
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DustMolecule Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-13-04 02:21 AM
Response to Original message
11. Interesting Theory, however
in my personal musings about all this...I'm thinking that people like Kerry b/c he's 'what we are used to' - you know, typical politician, 'connected', looks right, says one thing - does/votes another way, etc., etc. We're 'comfortable' with it/with politicians like him.

However, I liken this to a common phenomenon of the person who gets divorced from his/her alcoholic (or whatever) spouse and then turns right around and marries a person just like the first spouse! - another 'drinker' (for my example), if you will. It's BAD for them, but they're used to it/comfortable with it.

The radical behavior of the current administration has pushed people over the brink - we're ready for the 'divorce'. However, I'm horribly afraid that we won't continue on and strive for TRUE CHANGE and a truly better path. I'm afraid that we won't use the wonderful opportunity that these last three horrible Neocon years have given us very well. I'm afraid that this nation just really wants to go back to 'what we're used to' and not do all of the work and make some sacrifices (in terms of changing our lifestyle habits, consumption demands, etc.) that is necessary to set this nation on a good, stable, and sensible path for the future. We want to 'marry another drinker' (methaphorically) so that we can 'go back to sleep' as a nation.

I hope that I am wrong, but this is one of my concerns.


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Rich Hunt Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-13-04 10:28 AM
Response to Reply #11
19. good point
in my personal musings about all this...I'm thinking that people like Kerry b/c he's 'what we are used to' - you know, typical politician, 'connected', looks right, says one thing - does/votes another way, etc., etc. We're 'comfortable' with it/with politicians like him.

Yeah, good point. A lot of the arguments in support of Kerry are not based on actual merits, but on speculation.

Kerry strikes me as a 'leading brand' politician. Most people might reach for the Pepsi or the Coke - that doesn't mean it's the best beverage. This is the sort of phony populist thinking that drives me up the wall.
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mccormack98 Donating Member (209 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-13-04 04:02 AM
Response to Original message
13. Very interesting ... but don't forget the bad guys ...
I think your theory is really interesting because it explains public perceptions of the candidates. I would add to it some sinister forces ...

Big money, big corporations, and big media are behind the establishment players - Kerry and Edwards. They give money, resources and good media coverage.

Dean is anti-establishment. Dean garnered his lead playing this role ("I represent the Democratic wing ..."). Eventually the others figured out how to co-opt Dean's anti-war message. They diluted Dean's message, then worked quickly with the media to marginalize Dean as "angry", "provincial", and "liberal." Dean's fall coincides with the pounding he received.
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Cheswick2.0 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-13-04 05:55 AM
Response to Reply #13
15. yes and the media which does not want to be reregulated is happy
They are happy to help get rid of Dean.
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Fight_n_back Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-13-04 04:11 AM
Response to Original message
14. Trenchant comments
An example of what you point out about Dean is what Michael Moore said about Bush being a deserter. Moore says deserter, the White House attempts to prove not deserter by proving him to be AWOL instead.

Dean says the emperor is naked and even if we don't choose Dean we need to acknowledge his impact in allowing others to comment on, not only the emperors nudity, but his tiny member as well.

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HereSince1628 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-13-04 08:47 AM
Response to Original message
17. Which system/system of systems is being analyzed?
Edited on Fri Feb-13-04 09:35 AM by HereSince1628
A priori, I would assume the system of primary/caucus candidates to be _unstable_ for the simple reason that only one candidate can emerge as the nominee. Analysis of such a system would be expected to reveal various pathways that lead to instability of all systems constructed with membership of greater than one. The same can be said about the system that produces the president elect.

Conseqeuently, homeostasis may not be an entirely appropriate conceptualization of social subsystems such as primary or general elections.

On the otherhand if we are considering American society as a whole we might conceptualize the primary as a subsystem within the much greater system of components, subsystems and relationships that define the fabric of our way of life.

This greater system might be considered as having moved toward and achieved some sort of stable state (although persistence of the entire system for 200 years may not have presented sufficient time to explore and "caste off" destabilizing components and information circuits.) In this greater system I can concieve of an emergent counter-force (the anti-Bush) as the system as a whole comes to reside within the boundaries surrounding a stable node.

However, this sort of conceptualization makes me somewhat uneasy. If we assume the nation is part of such a system, and that we reside within a domain of at least local stability, the system is going to support "business as usual" solutions, as the blogger suggests.

If that's true, we are to some extent "trapped" within the field of the stable node. The persistence of the system might include a variety of social phemomena which progressives dislike and would like to change. If we are stuck within a stable system working for the realization of progressive change might be futile.

However, phenomena such as the emergence of American military hegemony (hyper-power status), off-shoring of jobs, etc, are phenomena that describe what seem to be unsustainable trends. This might suggest that as a nation we are not in a stable domain but are involved in a transient dynamic. Within such a system status there is hope that the movement can be directed, if not entirely steered, along progressive trajectories which, hopefully, will encounter stable nodes.
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