Fred Thompson, Ladies And Gentlemen, Will Never So Much As Enter A Primary

[The Magistrate]

He is simply a convenient marker at the moment to represent for Republicans 'none of the above', and his flash in the polling without any real effort on his part only indicates the disgruntlement Republicans feel for their leading candidates, which is itself a reflection of their awareness they are going to lose the White House in 2008 to the Democrats.

We have, on the other hand, an excellent crop of leading candidates, any of whom will handily whip anyone the Republicans put up.

"Most of the things I worry about never happen anyway."

[MannyGoldstein]

1. His Wife Should Run

Yowza!

[The Magistrate]

4. A Very Talented Woman, Sir

Clearly she could attract a sizeable following....

[Bucky]

119. Can you imagine how high the polls would go if she threw her hat in the ring?

I can visulalize her getting a significant bounce just by starting to run.

[Kagemusha]

2. My head agrees with you.. we'll see what happens though.

So far Rudy's on top just from less negatives than the others. (like McCain being joined to the war at the hip, by choice.)

[The Magistrate]

6. And The Pounding Of Rudy Will Commence Soon Enough, Sir

My dark horse wager is Gingrich, and he will not do well in the general election....

[SheWhoMustBeObeyed]

12. Newt! Newt! Newt!

I won't repost my rationale for Gingrich's nomination, with which I've killed several threads already...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=389&topic_id=550784&mesg_id=551199

...but here's something to liven things up:



Given the other photos I've seen of Jeri, I'd soooo love to see her choice of inaugural ballgown...

[barb162]

18. First time I ever saw his wife. Or his daughter. Granddaughter?

Thanks for posting. She's very pretty.

[sellitman]

50. Elizabeth Kucinich is another beauty.

And I like her politics better too!

[jcrew2001]

106. Have you watched News Radio and Jimmy runs

for president so he can find a wife - that's Dennis plan!

[saltpoint]

3. That sounds right to me, and we can all take encouragement from it.

I'm unimpressed with Fred Thompson. Many moons ago he was at least residually competent in working with then-Senator Howard Baker on the Watergate Committee, but his alignment with John McCain in 2000 was troubling, if predictable, and there are likely better actors than Fred on television.

We could do without him. And I think you're prediction is spot-on.

[The Magistrate]

8. Thank You, Sir

Always a pleasure to see you about the forum.

[Blue_Tires]

5. in total agreement

i was never even starting to get concerned about him

[Erika]

7. The GOP is a fractured party...it's funny

Rudy is pro choice, anti-gun, Romney is a total flip-flopper, McCain lost the support of the moderates and independents for worshiping Falwell and theocracy.

Thompson is at least from Hollywood.

[barb162]

9. "Thompson is at least from Hollywood. "

Just like Reagan and Arnie.

[Nedsdag]

88. Arnie can't run.

But I'm afraid of Fred Thompson's candidacy. He brings the hokey cornpone schtick that the red states and the purple states like as well.

Which is why the idea as Hillary as the nominee would be a terrible thing to happen.

[barb162]

10. Betcha a buck he runs.

They have to do something, they're floundering.

Remember about a month before Conan the Barbarian ran for governor of CA? Did you think he'd run, let alone win? Then he won again? He was in that race for such a short time and then he won.

[The Magistrate]

11. Thought Arnold Would Run, Ma'am, And Feared He Would Win

[barb162]

13. May I ask what made you think he would run other than there was

a weak GOP candidate? I thought a person who had such an obvious foreign accent, among other things ( like the groping of the women story run by the LA Times a few days before the election), would never win.

[The Magistrate]

15. He Was Being Groomed For Politics For Years, Ma'am

And enough people have difficulty telling an actor from his role that his screen persona was a serious factor. He was a major star, not a B-list fill-in.

[barb162]

19. Well ,he certainly was a major star as compared to Reagan

Then again, look how well Reagan did too for two terms.

[The Magistrate]

22. Reagan, Ma'am

Had been a political operative for decades before he made even his first run for the Republican nomination. It had been a long time since he was a working actor by then.

[TnDem]

60. Political Operative, Sir?

That is the very definition of Thompson from 1968 till 1994...

[barb162]

97. Yes

He had several rich friends who groomed him for governor and then prez. And that folksy style of his played so well with the voters. I really think that folksy style was how he got himself out of Iran Contra being a bigger thing than it was. He probably should have been impeached for that.

[The Magistrate]

103. People Tend To Forget, Ma'am

His lecture tours based on the "G.E. Hour", and his work for Goldwater, among other serious groundwork....

[AshevilleGuy]

14. For president? The Constitution bars that. n/t

[barb162]

16. For Conan, yes, but Fred can run as he was born here as far as I know.

[The Magistrate]

17. For Governor Of California, Sir

That was the question, it seemed to me.

[AshevilleGuy]

30. Feared he would win? He did win!!

What has Arnold got to do with this anyway?

[Cha]

43. Keep up, Ashevilleguy..

:) they're talking about "actors" who win elections.

[AshevilleGuy]

53. Well, yes, I gathered that much...

When Ah-nold announced he would run I knew he would win. It was so obvious.

I imagined masses of white males (with caps on backwards) shouting in unison: "Hey let's vote for da Terminator!!! WooHOO!!!!!"

[The Magistrate]

44. Someone Asked What My View Of His Prospects Had Been, Sir

And deserved an answer, as it seemed to be an attempt to check the worth of my predictive capabilities in general....

"Who fights the future has a dangerous enemy."

[Eurobabe]

20. Like I posted last evening. Fred Thompson is the flavor of the moment for a desperate party

who is looking for a 2008 'God.'

[Freddie Stubbs]

118. Kind of like how some are hoping that Gore will run?

[Bucky]

120. Shush! Quiet, you!!

Inconvenient mirror comparisons are not welcome here.

In our defense I will point out the contrast of Democrats pining for a better politician while Republicans pine away for a better spokesmodel.

[Ninja Jordan]

21. Should Thompson *not* run, then I concur in your judgment.

However, should he run, Dems are in for a tough one. I simply can't see Hillary beating a corporate backed Fred Thompson nomination. What Bush state WOULDN'T he win? The South wouldn't even be competitive. And I think Thompson would appeal in battleground states too.

[The Magistrate]

23. He Would Not Get Forty Percent Of the Popular Vote Against Sen. Clinton, Sir

And no more than that against Sens. Obama or Edwards, or even Gov. Richardson.

The next Republican running will lose Ohio for certain, and probably Florida, and that is the race, as whatever Democrat runs will carry all states Sen. Kerry won in 2004. You are exciting yourself for nothing, Sir.

[Ninja Jordan]

24. Florida? Right, just like we won there in '06 (sarcasm)

If anything, Florida looks to be trending red. Any GOP candidate will receive 40% of the poular vote AT LEAST. It's just how the system works. Your statement indicates you think Hillary would win a landslide election. A recent poll indicates that 50% of the electorate has said they WILL NOT vote for Hillary Clinton. Who is the one exciting themselves?

[The Magistrate]

25. Against This Non-Entity She Would, Sir

Sen. Clinton certainly does have high negatives, but campaigns are about shaping perceptions when people are concentrated on the matter. She has at her disposal an extraordinarily skilled and experienced team of manipulators, and a good deal of money. Professionals, veteran and well financed, generally prevail. It will not be difficult to drive up the negatives of any Republican nominee, since it will be impossible for him to seperate himself from the record of this administration, which the people want very badly to repudiate.

[Ninja Jordan]

26. "it will be impossible for him to seperate [sic] himself from the record of this administration"

I'm not sure about that. But it's pointless to continue a conversation with someone who thinks Hillary Clinton will win 60% of the popular vote. As conversing with you is painful, I'd rather not continue bumping this asinine thread.

[The Magistrate]

27. You Wound Me, Sir, Indeed You Do....

"As you make your bed, so you lie there
But who'll tuck you in when you do?
And if someone steps up, I'll be that one,
And if someone gets stepped on that one's you!"

[Tellurian]

38. Good One, Magistrate..

I wholeheartedly agree with you. Hillary's momentum is building daily. I also believe in 2008' she will come out strongly and defeat the Republicans as they've never been defeated before!

[troubleinwinter]

52. That graphic reminds me of this one:

[Tellurian]

58. Yours reminds me of this one:

[Samantha]

110. Well, I agree with you

I had a conversation with my Republican brother earlier in the week who is ecstatic over a potential Thompson run. We are formerly from Knoxville, Tennessee. My brother is a sophisticated man of the world with an important government job who has lived all over the world. In other words, he is no "dumb cluck" (pardon that Tennessee term). My brother thinks Thompson can ease out all others and take Hillary in the general campaign. I said he left the Senate to resuscitate his acting career because that is his first love. He is allowing the rumors of his candidacy to blossom to boost his Law and Order ratings ... just my humble opinion.

However, should we both be wrong, Magistrate, I hope The Man Who Should Be President (also from Tennessee) jumps in this fall. Thompson against Gore would be a heck of a thrill for me (the political equivalent of the great boxing thrilla from Manila). I might have to take a Sabbatical from my job to campaign for Gore against Thompson, who, when a Senator from Tennessee, sent his aid to the Florida recount to act as one of the "angry mob" who shut the count down. I see a lot of potential for political poetic justice in this possibility.

Should The Man Who Should Be President not run, though, and Fred does throw his hat in the ring (I really can't see it), I think he could take Hillary. I believe you might be mistaken in your assessment of a Thompson versus Hillary run because you are simply being too logical. Many, many dumbed down Americans would vote for the Law and Order guy because they do not elevate political acumen over Hollywood drool. Again, I might be wrong, but in thinking once again about 2000, and Bush* versus Gore, I ask you, who is sitting in the Oval House today (yes, I know Gore won the popular vote, but ....)

[AshevilleGuy]

31. Sixty percent? Hillary??

FDR got 60.79% against Alf Landon in 1936. LBJ got 61.05 % against Goldwater in 1964. Nixon got 60.59% against McGovern. Source: Congressional Quarterly's Guide to U.S. Elections.

Yet, Hillary Rodham Clinton is going to parallel these landslides against ANY republic next year??? Are we in LalaLand tonight??

BTW: Al Gore couldn't do it either. JFK coming back to life with wings and a halo couldn't do it.

[Tellurian]

39. Vote tampering has alot to do with Gore's final numbers..

he won by over 500,000 popular votes. God only knows how many votes were stolen from him in the other 49 states.

[AshevilleGuy]

56. No, I meant that Gore could not do that in 2008, no one will.

The days of any candidate getting 60% of the popular vote are probably gone for the foreseeable future; the country is too polarized and evenly split (even after 6 years of the bush horror).

[Tellurian]

67. Everyone I talk to is looking forward to a Democratic clean sweep!

How that shakes out, I wouldn't know how to translate a landslide into numbers.

[AshevilleGuy]

68. After 2000 and 2004, any victory without need of a recount

would be a 'landslide' for us. As for 2008 much depends upon what Iraq will be like then, and public perception of Dem stewardship in Congress until then. But above all, we have GOT to nominate a winning team! There is no substitute for that.

[tritsofme]

72. That my friend is an absurd statement

Since 1940 there have only been four elections, without a major third party candidate, where one candidate didn't make it to 40%, and those were reelection campaigns with a popular incumbent and weak challengers.

60% is out of reach for any candidate, 55% is pushing it and probably an upper limit given the partisan divide in this country today.

I believe your optimism to be misplaced as well.

Someone like Thompson or Giuliani that have been out of government for several years may be successful in moving away from Bush's failed legacy.

[Nedsdag]

89. Don't underestimate the power of the voter.

If Thompson runs, I'd be very, very afraid. Even my Democratic mother, who is a "Law and Order" fan, would consider voting for him.

[tkmorris]

28. Interesting but........

WHY wouldn't he run? The very factors which you argue are the explanation for his surprising poll numbers would also seem to indicate that it is an excellent field to jump into. So why do you believe he won't?

[The Magistrate]

29. No Organization, Sir, And No Funds

There is no reason whatever to imagine the numbers will last past the next thing that distracts the cable chatterers, and meanwhile real candidates will be posting up their war-chests in the reports they must file for the first quarter. Winning Presidential campaigns are not things people jump into on a whim; they are the culmination of years of preparatory work.

[tkmorris]

32. True enough, though from what I hear

A lot of the Republican money has not yet found it's way into the campaign coffers; it is still sitting on the sidelines waiting to see what the best move is. Mr. Thompson could still draw in plenty of money I should think, and while the lack of organization is an obstacle it is still early enough put something together if he could enlist the backing of one or two influential operatives. My thinking is that the Party cannot truly be happy with any of the current candidates and just might welcome a relative outsider with some buzz about him, particularly if he could swayed to play ball the way they want him to.

[The Magistrate]

46. Today's 'Buzz', Sir, Is Tomorrow's Fish-Wrap

Unless there is some substance under the sizzle, and there is none of that here.

[Jai4WKC08]

48. And it's only April 2007

There is PLENTY of time for Thompson (or Clark) to raise enough money and put an organization together to put together a credible WINNING campaign.

It will be especially easy for Thompson, because if the GOP powers that be decide he might be "the one," they will put their machine behind him. And right now, they really don't have anyone else who can win the nomination and still keep their base happy enough to get enough turn-out in Nov 08.

[cali]

33. We'll see.

I think the temptation may be too great for Fred to resist. If Rudy starts to flounder, if Mitt and McCain continue to flounder, Fred has nothing to lose.

I don't think he'd fare well in the general if he got the nod, but I can see him jumping in.

[Alamom]

34. k&r. Great post..n/t

[flpoljunkie]

35. Then let's not nominate the one candidate the R's will crawl to the polls to vote against in '08.

And we all know who that is, don't we?

[Bucky]

121. Um, that would be "all of them"

By the November 2008, whoever we nominate will be thoroughly demonized and hated by Republicans. The right wing spin machine will be going gangbusters from Spring 08 on to generate and sustain whatever hatred they can muster, by lie and innuendo, against all Democrats in general. Their marketing skills are formidable.

We could nominated Lieberman and they'd still make him a hated character by 35% of the population. This is what they live for. This is how they work.

[DanWithAngel]

36. two things

one, 2008 is still down the road. pothole politics will prevail.

which Democratic candidates do you consider members of an "excellent crop"?

[The Magistrate]

37. The Top Tier, Sir

Consists, as you are doubtless aware, of Sens. Clinton, Obama, and Edwards, in rough order of the paying odds one can secure.

'Pot-hole politics' and 'all politics is local' are phrases that no longer seem quite to match the political realities. Things have become more nationalized, and more ideologiocally driven, voter reactions more uniform across the country. There is a mood to punish abroad in the land, and it has a single target, namely the Republican party.

[Clark2008]

55. I'm glad someone thinks so.

I don't.

I don't see how any of those three can win.

[Bluedogvoter]

40. I disagree, he will run.

He will get the nomination.

He will be a strong force. He brings back visions of their messiah, St. Reagan.

If you think the pugs are simply going to concede you aren't being realistic. I'm hoping Thompson doesn't run and you are correct, but I don't see it happening that way.

This will be a close election.

[Jai4WKC08]

47. I think the Magistrate is wishful thinking

I agree with you, Blue. Thompson will run, and he stands a very good chance of winning. Especially if our nominee is one of the current top three.

Americans LOVE to vote for actors. What has Bush got except an ability to act? Reagan too, for that matter. If everybody wanted to have a beer with Bush, they all wanted Reagan to be their kindly old grandpa. It didn't matter what he actually did as president, it's was the image he projected.

It's always been about "the show" with these people. They win by creating a story and characters that keep the public blind to what's really going on, until it gets so bad it can't be white-washed any longer. Like Iraq. And Katrina. But even then, it's still real hard to penetrate their smoke and mirrors for long.

Thompson will be just the kind of guy they need, and they'll kick our butts with him if we're not very smart and very careful.

[Clark2008]

57. I could have written this, Jai.

Thank you.

[Czolgosz]

41. Agreed. And if he did run, he couldn't raise the funds to come in better than 4th place.

[spooky3]

42. I hope you're right, Sir, and I so enjoy your writing style.

[Alhena]

45. Depends what kind of skeletons are in his closet

he's never has presidential-level scrutiny. I expect he'll get in the race if he doesn't have big skeletons- he's already well ahead of Mitt Romney without having lifted a finger or raised a dime.

[slackmaster]

49. I thought "convenient marker" was Newt's job

:argh:

[The Magistrate]

64. Newt, Sir, Is A Real Contender

He has been working the rubber chicken circuit a la Nixon in the sixties for a long time, and has a great many chits from local Republican officialdom. He has name recognition in the Party, great reserves of support, and a donor base at the top. He certainly has ambition for the office, displayed over many years. At this point he is a dark horse long-shot, but in my view he is worth a substantial flutter at even odds....

[FogerRox]

71. Newts radio interveiws with REV James >cough< Dobson

are basically an anointment by the religious right. IMHO that gives Newt a leg up on any so called "R" contender.

[TwilightGardener]

74. If the R's start considering Newt electable (his one big hurdle), he will

be embraced and will run. Newt runs rings around the other candidates in terms of smarts and wiliness.

[Freddie Stubbs]

122. But I think that many Republicans know that he is unelectable

Voters already have a negative view on him and he has a lot of personal baggage.

[slackmaster]

77. Mark my words, the real winner of that exchange was Fred Thompson

Just wait and see.

[slackmaster]

76. Newt is a very intelligent guy, and making shitloads doing lectures, talk shows, etc.

Why the fuck would he want to be President?

[FogerRox]

51. KnR for clear thought processes

And for Freds show "Law & Order" getting renewed.

[The Magistrate]

69. Thank You, Sir

Always a pleasure to see you about the forum.

[FogerRox]

70. To paraphrase Fred, things can get real ugly real fast

I did like "Red October".

Just finished "The Prince" by Machiavelli. Its been sitting unread for 18 months, got it done now. I doubt Niccolo read Sun Tzu, but they seem to be cut from the same cloth.

An Invite:

http://rdanafox.blogspot.com/2007/03/hms-cornwall-never-contested-capturing.html

[Clark2008]

54. We'd better hope, is all I can say.

[Bronyraurus]

59. Hey Magistrate

Why do you write with a contrived courtly patois?

[TwilightGardener]

61. Leave the Magistrate alone! And I agree with his post. There's something

about the whole Thompson thing that smells fishy to me. He is old buds with McCain. Is he in it to take down Rudy's numbers and take out Romney so McCain wins the nom?

[Bronyraurus]

63. He may be right

But no one talks like that outside of express checkout line romance novels, so I'm wondering why the put-on?

[venable]

62. It's unbearable to read, for me, anyway..

when someone is so painfully concerned with how they think they sound, what they say is of little interest.


I agree, though, that FT's candidacy could very well be an attempt to derail Rudy. Makes more sense than him actually running.

[TwilightGardener]

65. This is a guy who didn't even want to keep being a SENATOR

anymore, for God's sake. Why run for prez now? Even Chimpy said it's "hard work"!

[The Magistrate]

66. An Excellent Point, Ma'am

People not absolutely consumed with ambition for the thing need not apply, and do not....

[saltpoint]

78. For my part, I honor anyone with that kind of command of language.

It means a great deal.

From Joan Didion: "The ability to think for oneself depends on one's mastery of language."

I agree with Ms. Didion. And by that standard, Magistrate is tops.

[venable]

79. I'd like to disagree

not that it matters, but the one you admire sounds exactly like someone who is thinking only of how they are perceived.

I am pretty confident that Joan Didion would not admire this Foghorn Leghorn.

[saltpoint]

82. Didion herself is a master of language. I believe she is generous enough

of spirit to acknowledge the same in others.

The Magistrate is one such.

[Bronyraurus]

90. The point is

that Magistrate clearly doesn't talk like that when he's at the corner grocery buying toilet paper, or drinking beer at a bar. It's an affectation that he has clung to for a surprisingly long amount of time, which demonstrates that he desperately wants anonymous strangers on a message board to think that he actually talks like that.

He understands language well enough to use it correctly, but any dope who knows grammar can do the same thing. Most people don't because they don't care to pretend that they're Oscar Wilde. Or Bill Buckley.

Maggy, what gives?

[saltpoint]

91. I enjoy the points The Magistrate raises when he posts on DU.

And I honor the command of language.

[venable]

92. Ahh, but, fine Sir:

Whensoever the man doth generously proclaim his very singularity, whether by deed or utterance, so then does that self-same gentleman render moot the substance of such acts and utterances.


(See, it's not so hard to sound like a smarty-pants, and I'm not even very smart. Yet, one chappie does this regularly, and is celebrated. Go figure. What I'm saying is that this is NOT command of language. This is play-acting, and it's easy and meaningless.)


Tempus loquendi, tempus tacendi.

[saltpoint]

93. Hmmm. We disagree. This post's assertion by The Magistrate held

that former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson would not enter primaries in quest of the GOP nomination for 2008.

It further held that Thompson was a bookmark, a temporary staging ground to collect Republicans' frustrations over their current field of candidates.

I hold with those claims.

And I give a tip of the hat to the OP for expressing them so succinctly.

[The Magistrate]

94. Thank You, Mr. Crusoe

"Who has no enemies has no friends."

[saltpoint]

96. I nod back, good sir, and reiterate my agreement with your assessment

on Fred Thompson.

I came to know him through television during the Senate Watergate hearings many moons ago.

He and Howard Baker appeared to be different sorts of Republicans than the current crop of GOP senators. Perhaps the atrocities of Mr. Nixon prompted a higher performance. In any case the atrocities of Mr. Bush don't seem to have the same oomph.

At some point we would expect a candidate for 2008 to pick up the phone and start asking for support -- for public endorsements and campaign cash. Thompson's people haven't done this so far. He's making almost no appearances. There are few if any press statements. No scheduled media access.

I believe your call is spot-on.

[Bronyraurus]

99. I actually like what Magistrate says

most of the time. He does make good points (I disagree with him on this one). But the language he uses is absurd and his charade is embarrassing.

[saltpoint]

101. Some of us struggled in school days past to do better with words and

sentences.

I was one of those.

I had good English teachers, overall. Not every single English teacher the same caliber, but all fairlyl good at what they did, and a couple outright outstanding.

I see in The Magistrate's command of language the higher expressions my teachers encouraged in their students.

And I respect it very much.

On Fred Thompson, I think his camp would have picked up the phone by now and made a few appearances. There are always late fund-raising efforts, but a lot of the cash has been spoken for. And the GOP field is even more crowded than ours.

If Thompson is going to get in the Republican nomination race, he'd better be getting his fanny in gear.

[Bronyraurus]

104. Maybe he doesn't want to peak too soon

Obama may have! (Obama is my man, so far at least). The primaries are a full year away. We shall see. Bob Novak had an article today linked on Drudge about Fred Thompson being dead serious. Who knows?

[saltpoint]

107. Bronyraurus, I think you are still quite safe with Senator Obama --

I do not believe he has peaked yet. In some recent threads on DU Obama is disparaged, but although I am in the Edwards camp, I think there is no case to be made that Barack is anything less than stellar. He's a good man. His wife is terrific. The kids seem very happy.

And the keynote address in Boston in 2004 was one of the keeper speeches of my lifetime.

Just outstanding.

[union_maid]

111. I have to take issue with that

The Magistrate is one of the best things about DU. His writing style is quite deliberately amusing as hell, even while he supplies a much needed voice of reason.

[SheWhoMustBeObeyed]

114. True and even truer

"His writing style is quite deliberately amusing as hell, even while he supplies a much needed voice of reason."

Always nice to meet someone who recognizes The Magistrate's unique blend of wicked wit and dispassionate analysis.

:toast:

[bling bling]

113. It's a more sophisticated level of language and humor.

If you don't like it, or don't get it, too bad for you. Usually I find that those who feel some bizarre need to disparage others for no apparent good reason often have a good reason to look inward at a thing or two. But that's just the psychology degree in me speaking.

[Patiod]

73. I'd vote for him

for Big City District Attorney.

Oh wait, that's television.

Never mind.

[semillama]

75. What I find interesting is who else is apparently not entering a primary

Namely, any current members of this administration. No one expected Cheney to run, but it seems to me that at least one individual would at least make noises about it. To my knowledge, only one former administration member has entered, Tommy Thompson, who is going to run on his gubernatorial experience rather than as a former Secretary of Health and Human Services.

If he had not been disgraced, would Powell be making a run today? An Obama vs. Powell contest is interesting to contemplate (especially the part about certain hard-right racists and their exploding heads, a la Chapelle Show).

[saltpoint]

80. There is some support for your contention in ROLL CALL, Magistrate.

I came across this brief passage on Taegan Goddard's POLITICAL WIRE site:

_ _ _ _ _

Those close to former Sen. Fred Thompson (R-TN) "say his interest in a White House run is genuine. Yet the practical evidence that he is preparing to build a national political and fundraising team from scratch -- at a point when his GOP competitors are already well out of the gate -- remains minimal," Roll Call observes.


_ _ _ _ _

Thompson is a smart guy. But he has yet to build a national profile apart from his television or film work.

It doesn't mean it will not happen. But it hasn't happened yet.

[TwilightGardener]

81. Of course they're going to say his interest is genuine--otherwise the

hype dies down.

[saltpoint]

83. Those Republicans! You just can't believe a word they say!

Wait! That's TRUE!!

I can't work up a froth of hatred for Fred Thompson, but on the other hand, I really don't care for him that much. I would hate to see him ride his television profile into the White House.

And I think he faces some problems out on the stump. His physical personality is solid and authoritarian, but I rarely see him smile. He doesn't look like he's capable of much fun.

I think that will subtract from his appeal, even if he does decide to jump in.

[TwilightGardener]

84. I think the media is bored with the GOP frontrunners and the GOP base

is dissatisfied, so Fred will be hyped--it's more fun for the celeb-obsessed media to fantasize about one of their own, anyway. It's also more fun to speculate about who MIGHT run than to pay attention to who is actually running. I don't think he has any more advantage, overall, than any of the other GOPers--Rudy is still the main threat, IMO, and Romney's making the bucks and has Bushie's backing. Dems are not assured a victory in '08, but it's still looking good as the GOPers destroy themselves by bucking public opinion over the war and covering up scandals. I am hoping either Hagel or Bloomberg runs as an Indy--they'll be the GOP spoilers without actually winning, thus assuring Dem victory.

[saltpoint]

85. Yes -- Rudy's ahead of the pack right now in the polls, but my god

what a monstrous excuse for a public servant. I think the other campaigns -- Romney with his big pile of money and McCain out of sheer desperation -- are going to start running a few ads one of these days which will not show Rudy in a very good light.

I think those poll numbers will come down.

My dream scenario is that they all compete in Iowa and Romney, Giuliani, and McCain bunch up their percentages and Sam Brownback wins. That scrambles New Hampshire and the other states, which will wind up splitting and mixing their outcomes, leaving Brownback still in contention with none of the first 3 with enough delegates at the convention for a first-ballot victory.

The party elders conspire to deny Brownback. They settle on a consensus candidate -- who knows which one -- and Brownback, furious, opts for a third-party run from the far right, splitting the November vote.

We win.

[The Magistrate]

100. Rudy Will Not Survive The Religious Right Types, Sir, In The First Wave Of Southern Voting

McCain's poor showing in the money primary, though, is a surprising development.

Brownback actually has a pretty decent chance: he is very popular with the sort who vote in their primaries.

Huckabee, too, has a good shot at their nomination.

For better or worse, the Republicans have become a purely regional, Southern based party, and their primary voting is certain to reflect this.

[saltpoint]

102. Yes. Nixon did his magic on the Silent Majority in the South and

now the GOP finds itself a bit locked in. In the 2006 election the number of Republicans in Congressional delegations across New England dwindled to just a handful.

I love a trend like that!

A toast, then, to Rudy Giuliani's rapid demise at the hands of Dixie Republicans!

:toast:

[Telly Savalas]

109. You really think Brownback has a shot?

Although he's very appealing to the GOP's far right base, surely more level heads in the party will realize that the guy is nearly unelectable in the general election.

What's the scoop with Huckabee? If I'm a GOP strategist, I'm wanting to go with a fresh face, someone with few ties to the Bush Administration, and someone who can balance appeasing the far right freaks without coming across as a right wing freak themself. Does Huckabee fit the bill for this?

[DFW]

86. Let's hope

....that we can win for reason other than the radical right
splitting their vote between two fruit cakes. If that's the
only way we can retake the White House, it is depressing news,
indeed.

How about a strong capable candidate who has better politics and
is capable of putting them to the electorate in such a way as to
garner a majority of the votes (which will then be counted as cast)?

Or is that too passé as a strategy?

[TwilightGardener]

87. I agree that we should focus on putting up our very best candidate

rather than focus on the GOPers and their strategies, but a nice independent run by a conservative would sure help--it's not our only hope, by any means, but it'd be a nice little bonus gift!

[The Magistrate]

95. That Is Certainly How It Is Supposed To Work, Sir

But a win is a win, however managed, and in our first past the post system, fracture in the enemy camp is a godsend....

"It wasn't pretty, but she sure was."

[DFW]

105. A win is a win, eh?

Well, after the election of 2000, I guess that is one unassailable argument!

[Ganja Ninja]

98. I can't see Fred Thompson running unless the Bush money

machine promises to get behind him and fund his campaign. He's too old to try and raise the money himself and cleaning up Bush's mess is not something that is going to be easy.

[Freddie Stubbs]

117. It would seem that Romney is the guy with the money right now

[KoKo]

108. Would agree with you...but C-Span this a.m. had former Hotline Editor

Vaughn Ververs (promoted to new CBS Editor of their Internet site) saying that Thompson is being portrayed as the NEW REAGAN! In other words: paint the colors you want on his coloring book face and BELIEVE in pixie dust.

I think it's desperation...and he won't make it to Primaries, also. But...stranger things have happened...it depends on if Chimpy & Friends nuke Iran, and the War Drum Beat manages to win again with the corrupted Corporate Media pumping War and sucker American's buying it.

Some days I have faith that the hype won't work again...other days I give up. I'm not on meds and maybe that's just my natural "thingy" living in these times without some help with it. :shrug:

[Hippo_Tron]

112. Thompson will go as far as his ego can carry him

Fred Thompson isn't the type of politician who is in it to advance an agenda. He retired from the US Senate after only two terms because Law and Order was a better gig. The only reason that someone like Thompson would leave his current lifestyle for the horrors of a Presidential campaign is that enough people are telling him that he can be elected President. My guess is that unless he quickly becomes the front runner and stays in that position, he will drop out of the primaries.

[SayitAintSo]

115. Thompson: "Southern Fried Regan" ....

Is what one politico called him last week.. I think Thompson has the potential to be our biggest concern. Don't underestimate the power of his 'Law and Order' stage persona,and the gullibility of the American people in mistaking good stagecraft for character and ability. Think of ALL the free press he gets now in reruns... This one worries me.

[ripple]

116. I hope you're right about that

From what I can tell, he's the most formidable candidate they have, especially given the republican divide right now. He's a media darling who would likely gain populist support.

Not that we couldn't beat him, but I think it would be a tougher fight than a Giuliani, McCain, or Romney scenario.

[Czolgosz]

123. Agreed. Fred is a media bloom. While it may be true that some Repubs like the idea of Fred running,

Fred himself is noticeably cool on the idea.

If Fred did get in at this stage, most of the good staffers and fund raisers have already chosen sides, and he be at more than a $15,000,000 deficit.

Plus, the biggest Repub constituency which is dissatisfied with Rudy McRomney is the extremist Christian Dominionists. That particular constituency is NOT in love with Fred, who ran for Senate as a pro-choice candidate and who has balked at the suggest of a Constitutional Amendment to fully overrule Roe v. Wade.

Finally, Fred is a close friend of McCain's. If Fred runs, he hurts McCain's campaign and he doesn't stand any realistic of winning the nomination himself. In effect, Fred's candidacy would boost Giuliani's and Romney's prospects at the cost of McCain's prospects. He doesn't want to do that.