South Africa: Rubbing Russia Up the Wrong Way
Business Day (Johannesburg)
OPINION
February 26, 2007
Posted to the web February 26, 2007
Gerrit Olivier
Johannesburg
AT A security conference in Munich this month, Russian President Vladimir Putin told the audience, which inclu-ded US Defence Secretary Robert Gates, senator John McCain and German Chancellor Angela Merkel, that "unilateral and frequently illegitimate actions" by the US have made the world a more chaotic place, creating new centres of tension and causing new human tragedies. Tirades of this kind by Kremlin leaders are not new -- most famous is Nikita Khrushchev in 1960 hammering his shoe on the table at the United Nations (UN). And like Khrushchev's, Putin's tirade was more deliberate than spontaneous. His message was: "Do not expect Russia to play by American rules."
This time around, many other world leaders probably feel the same.
Western media have hammered Putin's speech as "self-serving anti-American cant". Newsweek derisively labelled his style of governance as "Soviet lite" and The Economist referred to "loutish behaviour" and a "Russian assertiveness that nowadays seems to border on gangsterism".
Strong language. Yeltsin's prediction of a "cold peace" may indeed become a reality. Suspension of Russia's Group of Eight (G-8) membership is already being talked about as a form of punishment.
But this kind of name-calling won't solve the problem. The reality the west must face up to is that the chickens are coming home to roost. After the collapse of the Soviet empire, its strategy was to surround itself with like-minded, preferably weak and compliant states. To legitimise this strategy, the west presented it as a quest for freedom and democracy, a fight against international terrorism: a struggle of good against evil.
The strategy was generally a failure. It weakened the west, emboldened its enemies, destabilised the international system and squandered the gains of ending the Cold War and Soviet imperialism. The Iraq exercise was a catastrophic mistake, while the problems of Iran, North Korea, Afghanistan and al-Qaeda remained unsolved. Lamentably, as Putin reiterated in Munich, today's world is a more dangerous place than it was at the time of the Cold War.
But like the old Bourbons, the present western (US in particular) leadership seems not to "learn anything or forget anything". In spite of all the setbacks and failures of western revisionism, from Vietnam to Iraq, this policy continues to contaminate international relations. Russia has now been added to the list. Although another cold war is not in the offing, western policies have transformed the by-and-large co-operative relations with the Kremlin and they seem to be developing towards a new competitive and zero-sum mode of interaction. This is an ominous scenario, with a long tail of untoward consequences given Russia's pivotal position in world geopolitics.
It's the same old story of western assertiveness and overreach. Since its emergence from the ruins of the Soviet Union in 1991, Russia was expected to comply with western political norms and to act within the parameters of western interests. A new, strong and assertive Russia was regarded as a threat to western interests. The preferred scenario was a weak, dependent, compliant and "manageable" Russia operating within the western orbit.
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