The myth and math of Kerry's electability

[Bombtrack]

http://slate.msn.com/id/2095311/

By William Saletan
Posted Tuesday, Feb. 10, 2004, at 9:41 PM PT


By media consensus, the race for the Democratic presidential nomination is over. Why? Because John Kerry has won 12 of the 14 primaries and caucuses held so far. And why has Kerry won these contests? Not because voters agree with him on the issues. The reason, according to exit polls, is that voters think he's the candidate most likely to beat President Bush. There's just one problem: The same polls suggest this may not be true.

Two weeks ago, Kerry beat Howard Dean by 12 percentage points in the New Hampshire primary, convincing Democrats around the country that Kerry was their most electable candidate. How did Kerry win? By racking up a 4-to-1 advantage over Dean among voters who chose their candidate because "he can defeat George W. Bush in November." Among voters who chose their candidate because "he agrees with you on the major issues," Dean and Kerry were tied.

Let me say that again: Among voters who picked the candidate they wanted based on the issues, not the candidate they thought somebody else wanted, Kerry did not win the New Hampshire primary.......

[vi5]

1. Boy it's a good thing you posted this......

The other 10,000,000,000 times weren't enough.

[boxster]

2. Here's the problem with that theory....

People do not choose a candidate based on one reason and one reason only. Their *top* reason for voting for Kerry may have been electibility, but I seriously doubt that that is the *only* reason.

These exit polls should allow multiple answers to these questions to determine the overall reasoning for voting the way they do. Otherwise, you get a black/white separation of an issue like this one when it really isn't indicative of the complexity of choosing a candidate.

[pmbryant]

4. Very good point. This was a silly article.

Basing this analysis on these shallow exit polls leads to meaningless conclusions.

Essentially all Saletan is saying is that Kerry may win in November, but he may well not.

Well, the same could be said about any candidate the Dems nominate, so what was the point of writing all that?

:shrug:

--Peter

[Capn Sunshine]

3. It should serve as a warning to Kerry

not that he listens to the democratic wing of the party anyway...but heads up John! Backlash headed your way!!

[Bombtrack]

5. I wonder if Dean checked with Wellstones dead body

before he stole his slogan

[Uzybone]

6. Dupe

Dupe Dupe Dupe Dupe Dupe Dupe Dupe Dupe Dupe Dupe Dupe Dupe Dupe Dupe Dupe Dupe Dupe Dupe Dupe Dupe Dupe Dupe Dupe DupeDupe Dupe Dupe DupeDupe

[brentspeak]

7. But Virginia and Tenn. were open primaries

"Electibility" couldn't have been the only factor in Kerry's victories because voters of any stripe were allowed to vote in those primaries. Independents and even Repubs participated, too.

(Unless it's Republicans who are secretly hoping that Kerry can beat Bush...;) )

Brentspeak