Kerried Away ( The myth and math of Kerry's electability. )

[RogueTrooper]

snip...
By media consensus, the race for the Democratic presidential nomination is over. Why? Because John Kerry has won 12 of the 14 primaries and caucuses held so far. And why has Kerry won these contests? Not because voters agree with him on the issues. The reason, according to exit polls, is that voters think he's the candidate most likely to beat President Bush. There's just one problem: The same polls suggest this may not be true.

Two weeks ago, Kerry beat Howard Dean by 12 percentage points in the New Hampshire primary, convincing Democrats around the country that Kerry was their most electable candidate. How did Kerry win? By racking up a 4-to-1 advantage over Dean among voters who chose their candidate because "he can defeat George W. Bush in November." Among voters who chose their candidate because "he agrees with you on the major issues," Dean and Kerry were tied.

Let me say that again: Among voters who picked the candidate they wanted based on the issues, not the candidate they thought somebody else wanted, Kerry did not win the New Hampshire primary.

...snip...

Could I be wrong about all this? Sure. We pundits have been wrong before. Punditry is a dangerous game. But according to the exit polls, that's exactly the game Democratic voters have played in nominating Kerry. And if they're as shaky at it as we are, the price isn't just embarrassment. It's defeat.

...snip

William Saletan

[onebigbadwulf]

1. If the american people are stupid enough to vote for kerry

they deserve another four years of Bush.

[wheresthemind]

2. yeahhh your right!

They should never vote for someone with a long withstanding liberal record like Kerry!

[liberalnurse]

5. I'm with you on that.....

the truth hurts too.

[IndianaGreen]

3. A kick for an excellent article that shows Kerry's weakness

People are voting for Kerry in the primaries because they think he can beat Bush, a view that has been nurtured by the media.

What do you think will happen in the Fall when the voters, particularly the independents, get to see how Kerry has waffled on every conceivable issue?

[AP]

4. Bush has created this mood. Nixon did the same thing to win in 72.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

6. MYTH: voters do not agree with Kerry on the issues

In fact they do. Voters are not sheeple.

[RogueTrooper]

8. Not according to the polls the writer was referencing

I never said, nor would I ever say that people are "sheeple". I would be thankfull if you withdrew that base allegation.

[YouMustBeKiddingMe]

7. So they said Kerry and Dean are tied on the issues, but Kerry more

electable candidate. Sounds like a perfectly reasonable reason to pick Kerry over Dean.

The idea is to beat Bush, remember? It would be stupid to pick the candidate least able to do that.

[RogueTrooper]

9. The point of the article was that Kerry may

not be the best person to defeat Bush. Cited was Kerry's poor electoral showing amongst the swing vote demographic.