"Expect the worst in Iraq"...a sobering assesment.

[Clarkie1]

WASHINGTON -- Somehow, four years on, the debate about Iraq is still animated by wishful thinking. The White House talks as if a surge of 20,000 troops is going to stop a civil war. Democrats argue that when America withdraws its troops, Iraqis will finally take responsibility for their own security. But we all need to face the likelihood that this story isn't going to have a happy ending.

That was the underlying message of the National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq, released last week. It warned the administration that if the sectarian conflict continues, as it almost certainly will, "we assess that the overall security situation will continue to deteriorate.'' The current conflict isn't just a civil war, the analysts noted; it's worse -- with criminal gangs, al Qaeda terrorists and Shiite internal feuding adding to the anarchic state of the country.

And for critics of the war who favor a quick American withdrawal, the analysts had this stark warning: "If Coalition forces were withdrawn rapidly during (the next 12 to 18 months) ... we judge that this almost certainly would lead to a significant increase in the scale and scope of sectarian conflict in Iraq.'' With U.S. troops gone, the analysts forecast the collapse of the Iraqi army and a surge in al Qaeda attacks inside and outside Iraq. "Massive civilian casualties and forced population displacement would be probable.''

In this bleak situation -- where, as everyone keeps repeating, "there are no good options'' -- what's the right course for U.S. policy? A useful approach may be to start planning, not for the best, but for the worst. Congress and the administration should begin thinking about potential catastrophes in Iraq -- and about how to protect the core national interests of the United States and its allies.

more....
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2007/02/more_troops_wont_stop_the_civi.html

[OneBlueSky]

1. I've expected the worst since the day we invaded . . . n/t

.

[izzie]

4. So did I.

We could just pick up a book on what happened after WW1 to see it coming.

[wtmusic]

2. "Congress and the administration should begin thinking

about potential catastrophes in Iraq"...

um, yeah. About four years ago.

[MADem]

3. Wow, what a shock! To quote Condi "Who would have EVER thought?"

WTF is taking so long. Let's get OUT, now...

[gratuitous]

5. When I was a kid . . .

Many, MANY years ago, as a kid, I shared a bike with my little brother (yeah, we wuz po'), a Schwinn Tiger, two-speed. The front wheel got out of whack and we had to replace it, the tire and the tube. It cost the then-princely sum of eleven dollars to fix it. In negotiating the payment for the new wheel, my little brother kept going over the numbers, sure that I was cheating him. Exasperated, I finally said, "It's a bill! You're not supposed to make a profit."

It's a war; you're not supposed to have a happy ending.

[Apollo11]

6. Al Gore on CNN, June 13, 2006

Al Gore on Larry King Live, June 13, 2006

KING: How do you end Iraq? Do you leave?

GORE: Well, yes, we need to get our troops back...

KING: Now?

GORE: ...as quickly as we can but we have to recognize that however bad I believe the mistake was in invading Iraq under these pretenses that turned out to be based on completely false impressions -- however big the mistake was in getting there, we now all of us, whether we thought it was wise or not, have a moral obligation to look at the situation as it is and try not to make the mess that's been created worse than it would otherwise be.

And we need to follow twin objectives, get our troops back home as quickly as we can. But secondly, we need to avoid the moral mistake of just getting out in a way that enhances the already high risk of anarchy and/or civil war.

KING: That's a thin line.

GORE: It is a thin line, and I said earlier in the program the unfortunate reality is we do not have good options now. We have to choose among the least bad options.

http://edition.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0606/13/lkl.01.html

[Apollo11]

7. Barack Obama to the DNC, Feb 2nd, 2007

Senator Obama at the DNC Winter Meeting, February 2, 2007

Let's have an honest debate about how to end this war in Iraq.

As was mentioned, I was opposed to this invasion -- publicly, frequently -- before it began.

I thought it was a tragic mistake.

But whether you were for it or against it then, we all have a responsibility now to put forth a plan that offers the best chance of ending the bloodshed and bringing the troops home.

We all have that obligation.

The American people are ready for that to be addressed. It was enough to run against George Bush during this past congressional election; it will not be enough now. The American people are expecting more. They want to know what we are going to do.

And every candidate for office in the next election should put forward in clear, unambiguous terms exactly how they plan to get out of Iraq.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/02/05/AR2007020500753.html