It's just about mathematically impossible for Kerry to lose

[ringmastery]

All of the states give delegates out proportionately. It's not winner take all where an underdog can quickly make up ground. So Kerry doesn't have to win all the primaries. All he needs is to keep chugging along and get over 35%-40% of the vote in each state.

[YouMustBeKiddingMe]

1. Yep. Heard that same thing on Chris Matthews tonight.

All Kerry needs is to average 35-40% in the remaining states and he's got the nomination in the bag.

[dansolo]

6. Then Chris Matthews lied

A candidate needs a majority of delegates, not a plurality. Unless every other candidate concedes and drops out of the primary, Kerry must have over 50% of the total number of delegates to win the nomination. Matthews must know this, and the only reason he would say what he did was to promote the whole notion of inevitability of the Kerry nomination. If Kerry averaged 35-40% in every remaining state, he would not get the nomination, i.e. it would be a brokered convention.

[YouMustBeKiddingMe]

7. No, you need a certain number of delegates

And Kerry is on pace to get that number.

[AP]

2. However, if Edwards starts winning, and people jump on his bandwagon last

he'll presumbably be able to win by 60, 70 80 percent of the votes or more in the last third of the states.

[mitchum]

3. But that's the old enabling math you're talking about!

Kerry 2004

[arewethereyet]

4. huge edges in margin are unlikely but we DO have super delegates

and, lets face it, those guys are there to tip the scales as the party sees fit.

Bush can't wait till Boston to crank up the war engine and Kerry could be shredded by then.

I'm not willing to call it a game just yet. Despite what the some tv guys say.

[mohc]

5. At this point

If no other superdelegates fall behind Kerry, just for the sake of argument, Kerry needs about half of the remaining pledged delegates to clinch the nomination. If we get down to a two man race quickly, and the "other" candidate (at this point either Dean or Edwards) wins most of the primaries, they will get over half the delegates even if they do not break 50% because if only 2 candidates get over 15% then the top one gets a majority of the delegates no matter what. But realistically speaking, unless this happens before Super Tuesday, Kerry is a lock. And even if there is a turnaround, more than likely the other candidate can only force a convention fight and claim momentum at the end means they deserve the nod.