Which states will go Kerry and which will go with *

[_]

Forget about the current polls, pundits and opinion takers. I'm more interested in a historical and/or demographic context.

Assuming a Kerry win for the Dem nomination, which states are pretty much guaranteed for him? Kerry's VP choice is not a consideration at this point.

Which states are pretty much assured for Bush?

By "pretty much" and "assured", I mean highly unlikely to lose, or if they could lose, be it by a very slim margin.

Which states are the borderline ones that could go either way or are a toss up?

[HFishbine]

1. If

(Big if, since a lot can happen in eight months). But if things are about like they are today, I think any dem could carry all but:

Utah
Kansas
Indiana
Georgia
South Carolina
Texas
Wyoming
Montanna
Alabama

[yellowcanine]

7. I like your optimism

But I don't see the Dems carrying Mississippi, Oklahoma, Kentucky, Idaho, Alaska. I also think N. Carolina, Nebraska, Virginia, and Tennessee ate long shots. I would love to be proven wrong!

[nankerphelge]

2. Florida...

will vote for Kerry. However, I'm not sure who the paperless voting machines will say won. 2000: year of the chad. 2004: year of conveniently malfunctionin' machines.

[PROGRESSIVE1]

3. My View.....

Safe Kerry:
MA/ME/RI/CT/VT/NY/NJ/DE/MD/IL/MI/MN/CA/WA/IA/HI/DC

WILL HAVE TO FIGHT TO KEEP(MOST LIKELY WIN):
NM/WIS/OR/PA

CAN WIN OVER:
MISSOURI/NH/WV/VA/NV/AZ/FL/TN/OH

HAS TO FIGHT VERY HARD TO WIN:
ARK/LA

MIGHT WIN:
LONG SHOT, MONTANA (YEARS OF RETHUG CONTROL HAS TAKEN IT'S TOLL ON THE STATE)

WILL NOT WIN:
NC/SC/GA/AL/MS/TX/ID/OK/KY/CO/KA/AK/IN/SD/ND

WILL LOOSE BADLY:
UT/WY

[NWHarkness]

9. I think that's pretty good

I am optimistic about West Virginia and Nevada.

I think Ohio is the key. While we keep talking about how Dems can't win without the south, we ought to remember that no Republican has ever won without Ohio.

[sistersofmercy]

10. MO will go to Kerry in the GE

My prediction and btw MO votes in the GE have swung with the presidential winner (and selected presidential winner* included) everytime in the last 100 years except once. MO is kind of a measuring stick, bush* will campaign hard here, already is actually.

[IndianaGreen]

4. Indiana will go for Bush at about 6:01 PM on Election night

One minute after the polls close.

[corporatewhore]

5. I dont see how anybody but bush could win texas

[bigwillq]

6. Ya think???

I'm a Dean fan, don't take my sarcasm too seriously. It's been a rough night.

[jpgray]

8. I'm hoping some combo of NH, WV, AZ, and OH will turn over (nt)

[HazMat]

11. We need to go with

a sunbelt/rustbelt/border state strategy and forget about the deep south. Bush is even more popular down south since 9-11, and they are very hawkish on the Iraq war. Maybe a moderate southern state or two (like Louisiana or Arkansas) will present a Dem opportunity, but I doubt it. We should definitely fight for Florida (which I don't consider to be a 'southern' state).