Exit polls from Slate: Kerry up big in Va., Tenn.

[KamaAina]

Slate has made a habit of releasing exit poll numbers since the Selection, just to poke its bigger media competitors in the eye.

http://slate.msn.com/id/2095257/

The first wave of exit-poll numbers to come out of Tennessee and Virginia give the elections to Kerry in a mudslide.

Tennessee
Kerry: 44
Edwards: 26
Clark: 18
Dean: 6

Virginia
Kerry: 54
Edwards: 25
Clark: 9
Dean: 7

A mudslide?!
Plus, no numbers for Kucinich or Sharpton? Even a "<1" would do, just so we remember those guys are still out there. Note that their numbers add up to 94 in Tenn. and 93 in Va. I guess the other 6 or 7 percent don't count. </sarcasm>

[Tweed]

1. Ah exit polls

[spooky3]

2. is this a dupe? Someone posted exit poll #s from noon

from the National Review (?) site, and these look similar.

[KamaAina]

6. Slate and Nat'l Review are probably using the same numbers

from the National Election Pool. The earlier thread must've sunk like a rock, 'cause I checked first.

[spooky3]

11. here's what I was remembering

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=304509

[BootinUp]

3. I refuse to give them a web hit

[Mobius]

45. I looked, I feel so cheap!

:cry:

[AP]

4. This will be repeated in every other state unless we get the field down to

two.

Do other people want to have a debate between the values Edwards represents and the values Kerry represents?

[funky_bug]

7. Tell ya what

Why not beg EDWARDS to drop out and let us have a two man race?

I've put too much heart and soul into Clark's campaign to NOT be offended when another candidate's supporter says, "You're hurting the race... we need a two-man race to oust Kerry." Maybe we do, but I'm not advocating that Clark or any other candidate drop out until they're good and goddamn ready. It's called democracy, and the last time I checked, this was democratic underground.

But I will say this: Congratulations to Edwards for finally pulling his "2nd place win in OK" banner of his web page... no apology from his camp of course, but at least they can admit defeat. Far cry from his supporters these days.

[AP]

10. If Clark won SC, was out-polling Edwards today, won OK by more than

a narrow margin, and was, generally speaking, a better campaigner, I wouldn't be saying this.

I have also put a huge amount of time and effort into edwards's campaign, and that's another reason I want to see him go head to head with Kerry.

[funky_bug]

13. Then what right

do you think you have to tell equally dedicated supporters of another candidate that their candidate is hurting the race?

Maybe if Edwards had won MORE than one state, was polling closer to Kerry, and was a better campaigner anywhere but the South, then I would consider him a strong candidate to take on Kerry OR Bush. Let's not forget, Clark also out-numbered him in NH.

[arewethereyet]

16. time to face facts

Clark has been on the decline since Iowa. Yes, he did manage a narrow win in OK and was faltering there.

He's just wasting money and red-carpeting for Kerry at this point. If thats the legacy he wants, fine. I just think that putting his ego ahead of the party is the wrong thing to do.

[Julien Sorel]

17. You are assuming Edwards is a better candidate than

Kerry. I've seen no evidence of this. I don't see Kerry whining to Dean to get out of the race to make way for him.

[AP]

24. There's one way we'll find out if that's true or not.

We're not going to find out if the media can play this primary out the way it has gone the last 10 days.

[funky_bug]

25. uh huh

Preach it, Brother Billy!

[spooky3]

18. guys, guys, please, can't we be kind to all candidates

and their supporters here?

The challenge for everyone but Kerry and his supporters is to find a way to beat Kerry without making things easier for the Bushistas later. It doesn't make sense to me to see everyone scrapping for second. And then, the greater challenge is to get Bush out of office.

[AP]

22. I'm not so interested in beating any Dem as I am in feeling that Democrats

had the proper debate about the issues before heading into the GE.

Today, we're not having the right debate, and we're not going to have it so long as six candidates are running.

If it comes down to Kerry, Edwards and Kucinich, I think we could have the right kind of debate that prepares the winner to face Bush and win.

[funky_bug]

29. Yeah

Why not Kerry, Edwards and Sharpton? For that matter, Edwards, Kerry and Hamm? Pick the non-threatending candidate, and you've got your dream ticket, huh?

"You're campaign is too strong and I can't get ahead, so please drop out now." If this is democracy, we're in sad, sorry shape.

[BootinUp]

32. LOL

Ok, leaving work now...

I'll take two

:beer:

:beer:

[AP]

19. Furthermore, Edwards took 20 pts out of Clarks lead in NH even though

Clark had free reign there for weeks.

All I'm saying is that either the story of the primaries will be: Kerry wins while other dems divide anti-Kerry vote, or it will be national security or middle class opportunity, which issue do Democrats want to run on.

We're not going to have the latter debate if all the candidates continue to run.

[funky_bug]

Further further more

Clark STILL beat Edwards, even though Edwards has been in the run longer, and in politics a lot, lot longer.

[AP]

34. How can you argue Clark is NOT on the downslope?

[funky_bug]

38. I didn't

I actually said in an earlier post that his run is looking weak. But since only a few states have had their say, it's too early to call the game. Look, let me say this: I like Edwards. Fact of the matter is, if Clark goes, I'm only ABB in the sense that I want Bush out. I could care less who runs against him, and I won't be throwing my support behind the camp that tried to bully me out of my right to support the candidate I feel best represents me.

[AP]

43. Let me say this:

I seriously think that Edwards has the best chance of beating Bush. I can play out a Kerry GE campaign in my mind, and it doesn't end in a Democratic victory.

I know that it hurts feelings for people to hear my honest opinion about where I think this campaign is headed, if you're a Clark and Kerry supporter. I'm sure it hurt feelings to hear me say everything I said about Dean not being a great candidate for a year. But this is about more than feelings. It's about beating Bush and electing the best possible Democrat president.

If the shoe were on the other foot, I would not ask others to care more about my feelings than they care about winning the election.

I was so close to being a Kerry supporter (if Edwards wasn't running) for personal reasons that have little to do with policy or electability. I suspect that if Kerry were in Clark's position, and I were a Kerry supporter, I might be graciously falling on my sword in order to ensure that the candidates who best represented the debate democrats should be having to win were able to have that debate.

[funky_bug]

47. Hurt my feelings?

Puleez. It take a LOT more than that to hurt my feelings. I don't "feel" my decisions. I make them with my brain, and my brain tells me that Clark is the candidate that best represents MY beliefs and MY positions. Just because your candidate isn't willing to fall on the sword, doesn't mean the rest of them have to.

If Edwards can't distinguish himself in a field of eight contenders, then that's his fault. This may or may not be TWO America's, but it's not a two-man race. His supporters need to deal with that and let the rest of us have our democracy.

[Rooktoven]

37. I forget, How many delegates did Wes get in NH?

oh, same as JRE. I guess a (third place) win is a win though...

[funky_bug]

39. Only when

other people start counting their non-delegate wins first. Just counter attacking... sad though it may be.

My support of Clark, and my belief in him, is NOT, I repeat IS NOT contingent upon polls, votes, and wins. My support is based on who he is and what he represtents to ME. I will be behind him until the day that is no longer an option.

[funky_bug]

23. When you are drafted

you are answering a call. I seriously doubt Clark is the candidate in this race with ego-issues. If you raised 70,000 in less than a week (not from big assed businesses and big money donors) wouldn't you think twice about letting your supporters down, just for a little peace and quiet with the wife and grandson? His "ego" probably takes more hits in a day with this race than most people take in a year. I can face the facts that right now, Clark's run is looking weak. But I will not give up on him. Just because the other candidates' weak-assed campaigns aren't standing up to Kerry's either, does not make Clark responsible the fall.

And I think it's pretty hilarious that the only supporters calling Clark to resign are EDWARDS supporters. I guess they know a threat when they see one. Well, so do we. On behalf of all the Clark supporters, you can take your suggestion and shove it way, way, WAY up Oklahoma where the wind blows.

[AP]

26. Is this about letting your supporters down or about beating Bush?

[funky_bug]

33. Take that ABB

red herring and save it for another day. It's quite obvious why Edwards supporters want Clark out of the race. If Edward's campaign is that affected by him, then obviously he's a strong contender.

I don't hear you telling Sharpton or Kucinich to drop out. Funny how that makes perfect sense now.

[AP]

36. I totally admit that Edwards will have a hard time beating Kerry if Clark

stays in.

But that doesn't mean Kerry can beat Bush.

And I really think that Edwards would beat Kerry in a straight Kerry vs Edwards debate, and I think that Edwards can beat Bush.

If Clark and Dean are standing in the way of that debate (and if neither can really win), why should it be wrong for me to say that I wish Clark and Dean would drop out?

[funky_bug]

40. In that I partly agree

I wish Edwards would drop out. Bet that makes you pretty mad too, huh?

The difference is, I'm not starting threads about my problems with Edwards and why I don't support him. I believe you did.

[Justice]

44. LOL - Edwards Could Not Beat Kerry

in a one on one.

How does Edwards distinguish himself from Kerry? He can't, except to say I am from the south, I was only a senator one term.

Clark could beat Kerry in a one on one. There are real distinctions between these two on issues, not just geography.

[efront]

20. LOL

Clark outnumbered him in NH by a few hundred votes after LIVING in NH and spending tons of money and time in the state. Then he also dumps a ton of money into SC and places 4th. Spends ALL his time in Oklahoma and barely gets a win there.

And I'm pretty sure Edward's campaigned pretty well in Iowa getting 32%. Actually, Missouri wasn't bad, about 27%, considering he spent very limited time and money there.

I respect the General, but I think his time is done.

[For PaisAn]

12. You said it!

agree 100%

[Eurobabe]

5. Isn't this kinda "illegal?"

If not it should be. This is bad form. They should keep this stuff under wraps UNTIL THE POLLS PHYSICALLY CLOSE!!!

[KamaAina]

8. Here's Slate's own internal debate on the ethics of exit polls

http://slate.msn.com/id/2094993/

Jack Shafer favors releasing the numbers:

Since you've ceased on the voter turnout point, let me amplify: As I wrote yesterday, journalists are under no obligation to report and write in a manner that will maximize voter turnout. To that statement let me add a corollary: Journalists are under no obligation to refrain from reporting or writing something that might persuade a voter to stay home and watch Friends reruns. Journalists are not in the democracy racket. They're not in the game of empowering the populace. They are not social engineers. They need not think out the first, second, and third possible repercussion of most stories they write—the impact of disclosing exit-poll numbers being one of them—when they put fingers to keyboard.

If, indeed, some voters think the early release of exit polls are "deterring" them from voting, there are many workarounds short of calling a plague upon the Web sites that post the numbers. Impressionable voters could, for example, quarantine their over-sensitive souls from the cruel world by filing absentee ballots. That way the exit polls and late tracking polls would have no effect on their voting state of mind. Or, they could refrain from looking at the Web on Election Day, or vote the first thing in the morning before any exit-poll data is distributed.

Steve Lovelady argues against 'em:

You're right—it's not the press's responsibility to "maximize voter turnout," but we never said it was. What we did say was that it's the press's responsibility to avoid actions that might well minimize voter turnout—to avoid inserting itself into the voting process as a player. That's a distinctly different proposition.

With your "voter-turnout-isn't-our-responsibility" line of defense, you implicitly concede our central point: that releasing exit-poll numbers early does indeed have the potential to influence voters. Your argument is a form of throwing in the towel, suggesting that the barn door's already open, the horse is gone, and there's nothing to be done. We don't think it has to be that way.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

9. But it's all about delegates

You don't have to win outright to win delegates. Just look how many Dean is winning today in executing his 50 state strategy.

[maryallen]

15. If 100,000 people have completed "early" voting in TN,

How can exit polls be accurate??

(Read the thing about early voting on a Clark blog.)

[Freddie Stubbs]

14. Same numbers as National Review

[curse10]

21. Exit polls Schmexit polls

I'll wait for the real results to come in :-)

When do we start getting results tonight? 7 est? 8 est?

[arewethereyet]

27. they'll probably call it at 7

[AP]

28. Clark does have a way of beating Edwards at the end.

It's the only time I start wondering about BBV.

But you're right. It isn't over until it's over.

Clark could still pull out second place in TN.

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[jpgpenn]

31. Post the time line on this poll ...

[Nashyra]

35. I thought that it would be difficult to get on the Kerry band wagon

and I have not given up on Clark by any means, you never know what tommorrow may bring, but AP has convinced me that I can not, can not work for the Edwards camp. If Clarks drops out then my support, money and working hours go to Kerry. I would prefer Dean after Clark but it looks like Dean is not doing well in WI. I hope Clark stays in but if he doesn't I'm in Kerry's camp. Thanks AP for making my decision easy and you can blow me off but my husband and I both maxed out in our donations to Clark and we are prepared to do it for another candidate.

[funky_bug]

41. I'll throw mine behind Kucinich

This "get out you losers" crap that is being thrown around here has solidified my decision. Take ALL of Clark's support and add it to Kucinich or Deans, and they'll be right back struggling and fighting for their second, third, and fourth place showings.

[redsoxliberal]

42. Please come to Dean.

He is a terrific candidate, and the reason that he is not doing well is because people aren't supporting him. If people such as yourself start supporting him, he will do better.

[funky_bug]

48. My old sig pic

Was a pic of Clark and Dean. I got zero prob w/the good doctor. Don't know where I'll go if Clark pulls out, but it won't be to Edwards, that's for DAMNED sure. Not after this drivel.

[KamaAina]

46. Slate did not provide a time line

any more specific than that the numbers came from "early in the day".

The article was posted to Slate at 1:41 PST (4:41 Eastern).