When is the best time to announce for the Presidency ?

[kentuck]

I have thought about this. If you announce too early, people will always want to see who else is going to get in the race before they throw their support behind you. If you announce too late, all the suppport out there may be supporting someone else? So, what is the ideal time to announce for President?

I really like John Edwards a lot but I wonder if he may not have announced too early? Even those that like him will want to wait to see who else will enter the race. Sam Brownback is going to announce very soon. Does he really anticipate the Republican Party to swarm to support him?

So long as no candidate is taking 30%, any candidate that is thinking of running is safe at holding off, in my opinion. If the field is narrowly and equally divided into small percentages, it means there is no consensus. The people are still waiting.

In the present scenario, I think it may benefit the candidate that announces later rather than sooner. Because once you announce, you open yourself up to scrutiny that was reserved for the other announced candidates. Whomever is running for president will be criticized from some quarter or another. It' a given.

It would seem that the ideal time to run would be when one candidate pulls in front of the crowd. A natural condition in politics is to always have a balancing opponent. It is not permitted for one person to win anything unanimously. He must always have an opponent. My advice would be to wait until there is a favorite - then join the race.

[4nic8em]

1. Just prior

to a successful presidential impeachment...

[illinoisprogressive]

2. The time has moved up alot from even 10, 15 years ago.

Use to be that people announced a year later than now in the fall or winter.
Then, because of the money race, things moved up.
I fear it may have hurt Edwards to announce too early. He gets coverage now but, what happens if he drops out of the news and there is still a year left. I feel bad because I know with all the incidents around his annoucing felt like fate was trying to tell him something.
But, on the other hand, it may work to his advantage and while everyone is announcing he can quietly pick up some big money without press interference.
Brownback is announcing and I heard Hillary had to move hers up alot to announce soon. She was hoping to do so in the spring.
Havent' heard when anyone else is announcing so the timetable may swing back a bit.

[KingofNewOrleans]

4. I think the timing worked out well for Edwards

despite the "slow" news period and Ford's funeral. He was able to take advantage of some post-election enthusiasm among Dems on his mini-tour. He got to do all the news shows while Hilary and Obama were on vacation and came up with the tag, "McCain Doctrine". It also helped that his campaign was organized and ready to go (and of course, had been going for awhile now).

[Ninja Jordan]

5. He benefits from not having to be in Washington to cast Congressional votes

He can campaign constantly and sap up as much cash as he can (with no competitors).

[newyawker99]

6. Hi KingofNewOrleans!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[bigwillq]

9. Hello!

Welcome to DU! :hi:

[KingofNewOrleans]

16. Thanks for the welcome

It's actually a return. I was the old King of New Orleans back in 2004. Didn't know how to activate my old account so I just squished my name. Glad to be back.

[Larry in KC]

10. I don't mean to offend, but you're kidding about his timing, right?

Totally apart from who the candidate was, that truly seemed to be incredibly cursed timing. Not only the period when everyone was already busy with their own lives and holidays, not only Ford's death and funeral, but also the death of James Brown and the execution of Saddam. There was no news air left.

I'd start feeling a little jinxed if I were Edwards. Last time, a hurricane blew his announcement away.

[KingofNewOrleans]

15. Nope, not kidding

He had very good crowds on his mini-tour, which I think was from post election/pre Congress euphoria. I think if he had done it in Feb or March things will have settled back into day-to-day stuff and getting those crowds would be tougher.

Also, he got to all the political talk shows (while Obama and Hillary were vacationing) and got to coin the "McCain doctrine" In fact the politcal news shows probably got more attention than they would this time of year because of Ford's funeral.

I just think the timing worked out well for Edwards despite factors that you'd think would have worked against it.

[FrenchieCat]

3. I don't know if the timing has as much to do with it.....

as who you are, what you are offering, whether your detailed policies are something different and what folks have wanted, etc.

Timing means a lot, but its not everything!

[ripple]

7. It depends on the candidate

Hillary and McCain can probably afford to wait the longest, because they are both very well known. Edwards could have, as well, but I suspect he was chomping at the bit to get out there and campaign- hell, that's pretty much what he's done since 2004, anyway.

Vilsack is so unknown to most people, he really needed to have time to introduce himself before the other candidates grab the headlines- not that I think it will help him.

Maybe we should have a thread predicting the order in which the rest of the likely contenders will announce. That might be fun. Without thinking about it in-depth, on the dem side, I'm guessing the next few announcements will be Biden, Obama, Kerry, and Clinton, in that order.

[snowbear]

8. When did Bill Clinton announce?

I heard CNN talking about how late he announced compared to how early some are jumping in today.. but I can't remember the month they said.

[rep the dems]

11. I found an article that said he didn't announce his candidacy until

October 1st, 1991, but he had been campaigning nationwide for about 2 years.

<http://www.washtimes.com/national/20030916-113335-2310r.htm>

[snowbear]

12. Thanks rep!

Not till October?

Yow.. and the media is telling candidates they better hurry and announce? http://eliteleague.co.uk/forum/images/smilies/duh!.gif

[rep the dems]

13. No problem. I was pretty surprised that it was that late since I don't

think Clinton was one of the big name candidates at the time. Guess when you're a political genius it doesn't matter.

[snowbear]

14. I didn't know it was President Clinton who urged General Clark to run?

Until I read that article!

Retired Gen. Wesley Clark, at the strong urging of former President Bill Clinton, will announce today that he has decided to seek the Democratic presidential nomination.

Huh!

[Adelante]

17. He was one of many

President Carter, too.

[kevsand]

18. The best time to announce is always...

...today! You can't seriously recruit volunteers or raise money unless you're running. If you can't stand the scrutiny, you shouldn't be running at all. Once the previous election is well and truly behind us, the bigger the political district, the sooner you need to get going. The best time to announce for president is asap.

[fuzzyball]

19. As soon as Money can be raised for the run

Sooner the better. More exposure never hurts unless
the candidate is prone to making faux paus.

[kentuck]

20. I still believe the strongest candidates have not yet announced....

It's a natural reaction to always want what you do not have... :)