the true key to winning a GE, appeal to your base

[CTLawGuy]

It might sound silly to some people here. However, your base is comprised of your party's hardest core voters. They are MUCH more likely to turn out than the mushy middle. They'll turn out if you don't anger them.

Who is in the middle? More likely than not they are people who don't have strong beliefs and who are not as involved.

The DLCs strategy is to use THESE people as the Democratic base and count on the left's distate of Bush to turn them out. It's the "where else are they gonna go argument?"

To reach these people, the DLC candidates vote for the war, which they believe is popular, they pledge to keep the tax cuts for the middle class. This is designed to take the middle away from Bush.

Because the DLC candidates do this, the base feels very marginalized. They are forced to either choose a dem candidate who doesnt represent them and openly acts ashamed of them, or to not vote and risk the Repub winning. Often times, these people stay home on election day. Remember, it is really easy to not vote in this country with the busy lives most people have.

If your base stays home on election day, the middle will not save you, they are too flaky and unreliable.

To win, appeal to your base, fire them up and turn them out in large numbers. Take positions that the base likes and give the middle reasons why they should like your positions. The middle is the middle because those voters are swayable. I honestly believe that most of these people liked the war, because they only heard arguments in favor of it. If they had heard arguments against it, they would be more split.

Lets look at historical evidence of my theory.

1980 - Ronald Reagan, the ultimate non-moderate. He excites and turns out the repbulican base and swoops up dems along the way against a weak incumbent. Moderate Repubs warned that Reagan was unelectable.

1984 - Ronald reagan uses the same strategy to win again against an uninspriring former vice president.

1988 - Dukakis loses to Bush because of his lack of charisma. Bush is seen by repub. base as continuation of Reagan.

1992 - Bush pisses off Repub base by raising taxes. They stay home or vote for perot. Clinton runs and wins on universal health care and the economy.

1996 - Republicans are so eager to beat Clinton, they nominate Dole (who was at least initially upset with the gingrich takeover of the party), a war hero, Senator with lots of foreign policy experience, and someone who appeals to moderate voters, becase he is "electable". He is so uninspiring, the repub base stays home and clinton wins again.

2000 - George W. caters to the base while couching his policies in language to appeal to the middle. Despite being savaged by the media,Gore's base-appealing People vs. Powerful strategy gets a lot of the base out. It was too little too late with nader in the race though. Bush also has high base turnout, high enough to get close and steal the election.


If Kerry wants to win, he needs to atone for his war vote and otherwise ensure that he has the solid committment of the base.
Kerry must not be our Bob Dole.

If he doesn't, this election will be like the Bud Bowl, from Super Bowl commericals of yore: Busch vs. Busch lite.

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

1. The base

must be taken into account. In 1992, I was invovled in an automobile accident which resulted in three broken bones. Before I consented to go to the hospital, I insisted on going 40 miles out of my way so I could cast my ballot for Bill Clinton. How many mushy middle people would have been so committed as to do that?