270. How do we get there?

[ndcohn]

Going into 2007, i think we can agree that:
The Democrats start out with a guarantee of about 190 electoral votes from the following solid blue states/district.
District of Columbia
Massachusetts
Rhode Island
Vermont
New York
Maryland
Illinois
Connecticut
California
Hawaii
Maine
Delaware
New Jersey
Washington

There are then a few states worth 52 electoral votes, which, while rather close, we can expect to lean our way in close races. A Republican with Cross-Over appeal, however, could really make a strong run at these states. Even though these states were closer then some of the states i call a toss up, the fact that we won them by a rather sizable margin in an election we lost by 3 suggests our strength. Additionally, the midterms demonstrated strong GOP backlash, giving me further comfort with our position.
Michigan
Minnesota
Pennsylvania
New Hampshire

Then there are the toss up states, worth 108 Electoral Votes. While some of these states weren't particularly close in 04, sometimes as much as 53% for bush... the last two years of GOP rule appears to have taken a toll on the viability of the GOP in states like va/mo/co, based on the midterms. Despite these gains, the GOP does have a noticable advantage in the bottom 4 states.
Wisconsin
Iowa
New Mexico
Ohio
Nevada
Florida
Colorado
Missouri
Virginia

Then there are the states that have leaned very strongly for the GOP. While the right democrat can make a run at these states, i think that the GOP generally has a clear edge in these states worth 50 electoral votes
West Virginia
Arkansas
Arizona
North Carolina
Tennessee
Montana

The GOP then has their guaranteed base of 147 electoral votes.
Georgia
South Carolina
Mississippi
Kentucky
Indiana
South Dakota
Texas
Alabama
Kansas
Alaska
North Dakota
Oklahoma
Nebraska
Idaho
Wyoming
Utah


Thus, the Democrats have advantages, many opportunities, but in some instances, an up-hill battle.

Our nominee will be all but guaranteed 242 electoral votes - afterall, the Democrats have earned 248 electoral votes from the same 18states+DC in each of the last 4 elections.

Thus, this begs the question: How do we get to 270, and beyond?
While we have the *potential* to win many more red states then the GOP can claim in blue states, only certain candidates and certain messages can claim certain states.

Most Democrats will win these states:
Wisconsin
Iowa
New Mexico

A Populist Democrat will have an advantage , in these states
Ohio
Missouri
West Virginia
Montana

A Democrat with a strong optimistic message that appealed on economic issues would be effective in
Iowa
Ohio
Missouri
West Virginia
Nevada
Arizona
New Mexico

A Southern Democrat will have a advantage in these states
Florida
North Carolina
Arkansas
Virginia
Tennessee

A Candidate that had strong Latino support would have a good edge in
Nevada
Colorado
Arizona
New Mexico
Florida

A Candidate that could *somehow* get a significantly larger proportion, or number, of African American voters would benifit in
Ohio
North Carolina
Virginia
Tennessee
Missouri

So when deciding our nominee/ultimately our vp, we have to make a calculus. Where does x candidate help us, and is that advantage enough to subsume the gop advantage in that state?

[jgraz]

1. I'd suggest we start by nominating someone people actually want to vote for

It's a novel strategy, but I think the Dems oughtta try it for once.

[longship]

2. I suggest we wait until the damned campaign begins.

****NOT**** when the media starts using perceived (invisible) candidates to sell more freaking SUVs, shampoo, luxury jewelry, and other crap.

Now we're counting electoral votes? Pshaw!
Why don't we wait until October, 2008 for that?

Let's get with the program, folks. The election is almost two years from now. The campaign won't start until 2008. We won't even know all the candidates until then.

In the meantime, there's a small matter of a Congressional agenda with the Democrats in the majority for the first time in a dozen years.

[blm]

6. With a DNC that SECURES the ELECTION PROCESS in ALL 50 STATES.

The stronger the Dem party infrastructure in ALL states, the stonger ANY Dem nominee will perform when they need to tap into each state's party infrastructure once they become the nominee.

That is something neither Gore or Kerry could do with the DNC's targetted state strategy of the last ten years.

[BluegrassDem]

3. Where's Oregon?

It's apparently missing on your list. That's another state that's likely true blue.

[On the Road]

4. That is a Very Interesting Analysis

and I'm sure the party and the candidates themselves have gone through portions of it.

What you're saying is that Democrats need to pick up 28 electoral swing votes, and that those are most likely to be found in:

Iowa           7
New Mexico     5
Ohio          20
Nevada         5
Florida       27
Colorado       9
Missouri      11
Virginia      13
              --
              87

The Dems only need 28 out of 87 -- I like that. There are probably multiple ways to do it. And it's not only a matter of choosing a candidate with certain characteristics -- candidates have a choice over how they present themselves and what message they emphasize. Al Gore picked up steam after adopting the "I will fight for you" theme.

And BTW, please ignore the trolls. Your analysis was much more interesting than the mindless rah-rah threads that are so popular here.

[KKKarl is an idiot]

5. ..

I would put NH in a solid blue category. The poor people felt they were voting for a home boy in 2000. But they quickly changed their decision in '04. In most of the future elections you are also going to see OH & FL go for the democratic party presidential nominee. The reason being is the fact that FL is increasingly being populated by retired folks. They are becoming weary of the republican party messing with their social security benefits, so they are not going to risk it. As for OH, I think their was small bump in the road for '04 because gay marriages was on the ballot. But now progressives are increasing & things are going to swing blue in most future presidential elections.

[Eurobabe]

7. Spooky, your page views were 270 when I clicked on this thread...