How John Kerry Won Over Macomb County Michigan Reagan Democrats

[flpoljunkie]

http://www.tnr.com/doc.mhtml?i=express&s=cohn020904

Workable

by Jonathan Cohn


Only at TNR Online
Post date: 02.09.04

Warren, Michigan

John Kerry's campaign swing through Michigan on Friday showcases the support of almost every big-name Democrat in the state, from Governor Jennifer Granholm to Congressman John Dingell. But at a late morning rally in Warren, the person who makes me most optimistic about Kerry's political potential is a guy in the audience wearing a black biker t-shirt. His name is Chuck Kulikowski, and his shirt bears the emblem of American Bikers Aiming Toward Education, a group that crusades against helmet laws and other "motorcycle-unfriendly" legislation. (Motto: "Let Those Who Ride Decide.") Yet while Kerry is a well-known Harley Davidson enthusiast, Kulikowski says it wasn't the senator's interest in motorcycles that drew him to the Friday event. Instead, he says, it was Kerry's desire to drive President Bush from the White House--a desire Kulikowski shares fervently. "He's too rich, too arrogant, and he thinks he's running the world," Kulikowski says of the president. "He does what he wants, and doesn't care what other people think."

You expect to hear those sorts of things at a Democratic campaign rally, but not from a guy like Kulikowski and certainly not in a place like Warren, smack in the middle of Macomb County. A northern suburb of Detroit, Macomb is legendary for its large population of "Reagan Democrats"--white working-class voters who abandoned the Democratic Party in the 1980s because it had veered too far to the left. And Kulikowski is an almost perfect Reagan Democrat specimen: Having voted for Reagan during the 1980s, he tends to agree with Republicans on hot-button issues like abortion and gun control. But even after I point out all the issues on which he seems to disagree with Kerry, Kulikowski says he likes what he sees. "What good is a gun if you don't have a job?" says Kulikowski, a 57-year-old unemployed toolmaker. "You can't buy the bullets."

It's no great secret that white working-class voters in heavily industrialized states like Michigan, Ohio, and Missouri could propel a Democrat to the White House in 2004--just as they did in 1992, when Bill Clinton won back Reagan Democrats with a campaign based around the catchphrase, "It's the Economy, Stupid." The problem for Democrats is that Kerry, whose 35-point victory in the Michigan caucuses makes his nomination appear ever closer to inevitable, seems so conspicuously ill-suited for the task. Unlike Clinton, who regularly broke with his party's leadership over issues like affirmative action and welfare, Kerry has an impeccably liberal voting record, one that Republicans are already starting to mock. And unlike his current chief rival, John Edwards, Kerry has about as much rapport with the average American as fellow Yalie William F. Buckley.

<snip>

Then again, working-class authenticity doesn't seem to matter to the Macomb voters I meet. They are so annoyed at President Bush--for his failure to save their manufacturing jobs and preoccupation with foreign affairs--that they'll embrace even a mechanical New England liberal like Kerry. "I like anybody but George Bush," says Jeff Terry, 33, who works at the nearby Ford axle plant and describes himself as an independent. Just as I did with Kulikowski, I start running through the standard lines of attack against Kerry--he voted against the federal defense of marriage act, against the partial-birth abortion ban, for NAFTA, and so on. Terry shrugs. "Me, personally, I'm more concerned with my job. And I hope that people don't get sidetracked with the other issues." But what about the war with Iraq, supposedly President Bush's trump card with blue-collar voters? "I wouldn't want to give up on the troops," Terry says, "but to think that we were led there under such false pretenses...."

__________________

Try as he might, Jonathan Cohn just can't seem to talk these Reagan Democrats out of their support for John Kerry.

[THUNDER HANDS]

1. If we had Reagan Democrats in the 1980's

I think I smell the beginning of Kerry Republicans for this decade.

[AirConditionedGypsie]

2. Before we get too excited...

A report here in Michigan over the weekend stated that we were expecting 400,000 voters in the caucus, but only 150,000 showed up.

That means that we pulled less than one third of what we expected.

And Chimpy's approval in the state is over 60 percent.

[trogdor]

4. How new is that poll?

And where can I find it?

[AirConditionedGypsie]

6. It is not a poll

It is simply the total of how many of us showed up at the polls.

I have been looking for the story and will give it to you if I can find out where I saw it.

[Gman]

7. Very good reality check

[NWHarkness]

8. Can you cite any polls on that?

I simply don't believe that Bush has anything close to 60% approval in Michigan, a state that has been trending democratic in recent elections and has been devastasted by Bush economic policy. If you have any polls to back that up I'd like to see them.

I think the reason turnout was down in Michigan is twofold,. There is widespread dissatisfaction about the caucus setup. Michigan does not have party registration and there is a deep aversion among many voters to declaring party preference,

Secondly, turnout was depressed because of the way the media declared the caucus irrelevant. The Free Press ran a banner headline "KERRY OWNS MICHIGAN" the day before the caucus. That sort of coverage is obviously going to have a negative effect on turnout.

[AirConditionedGypsie]

9. Bush Has 63 Percent Job Approval In Michigan

http://www.detnews.com/2004/specialreport/0401/20/a01-39031.htm
Granholm connects with Michigan voters

77% approve of job she's doing; Bush also has strong support

By Charlie Cain and Mark Hornbeck / Detroit News Lansing Bureau

Granholm, a Democrat, has an eye-popping 77 percent job approval rating, according to a Detroit News poll of 400 registered voters conducted last week.

At the same time, Republican President George W. Bush appears to be on solid footing to capture this state in his re-election bid. He has an overall 63 percent job approval rating, the survey shows.
---

But our Governor is much better looking!

[flpoljunkie]

11. Bush's job approval has dropped in all polls since David Kay report...

according to an AP analysis reported by Josh Marshall in today's talkingpointsmemo column.

http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com

Bush's job approval rating dropped 10 points from Jan. 25 through Jan. 31, according to the National Annenberg Election Survey. The tracking poll takes a nightly sample and rolls together two or three nights' findings at a time to produce periodic reports.

Support for the war in Iraq also dipped in that period, from a majority saying the situation in Iraq was worth going to war over, 53 percent, to 46 percent during the last few days of January saying it was worth going to war and 49 percent saying it was not.

The Annenberg study found Bush's approval dipped from 64 percent right after Bush's Jan. 20 State of the Union address to 54 percent in the late-January period.

_________________

Michigan was evidently, no different, than the rest of the country in the time of the poll you cited--January 7-12th, 2004.

[AirConditionedGypsie]

16. You quote a NATIONAL survey

It seems at the same time, Michigan had chimpy 9 points higher than the nation did.

I haven't seen what the present figures are.

I would like to know.

[NWHarkness]

12. That poll is almost a month old.

And from a right wing source to boot.

I am finding it hard to believe that in a blue state with one of the nation's highest unemployment rates, Bush has an approval rating 15% higher than he has nationally.

[fujiyama]

18. I saw a poll...

just before the caucuses in this state, wit Kerry leading Bush by 5-6 points. I'll try to find the link. I also take anything published in the detroit news with a pinch of salt. It's about as believable as fox news.

[Colin Ex]

14. Question

Does that figure (150,000) include the people who voted by mail / online?

-C

[AirConditionedGypsie]

15. I am not sure

I am still looking for the article that gives the 150,000 figure.

[AirConditionedGypsie]

19. Here is the story... "Voter turnout falls short of original expectations"

Voter turnout falls short of original expectations

Saturday, February 7, 2004

BY PATRICIA MONTEMURRI AND KATHLEEN GRAY
FREE PRES STAFF WRITERS




The turnout for Michigan’s Democratic caucuses came nowhere near what planners had first predicted. About 150,000 people participated, either by Internet, mail or in person, but that fell far short of original estimates of 400,000 voters...

http://www.freep.com/news/latestnews/pm18362_20040207.htm

[NWHarkness]

3. Michigan politics

The political landscape in Michigan, generally, is that the Democrats win by huge margins in Detroit, Flint, Saginaw, Ann Arbor, and a few other cities (And, to many people's surprise, usually win in the UP), while the GOP carries most of the rest of the state.

The Detroit suburbs in Oakland and Macomb counties, and in western Wayne are where elections are won and lost. Oakland, once a GOP stronghold, has trended Dem in the last couple of elections. If we can break the GOP hold on working class voters in macomb, we can color Michigan solid blue in November and for years to come.

[Raya]

5. "Impeccably Liberal?' This guy need to read DU.

The problem for Democrats is that Kerry, whose 35-point victory in the Michigan caucuses makes his nomination appear ever closer to inevitable, seems so conspicuously ill-suited for the task. Unlike Clinton, who regularly broke with his party's leadership over issues like affirmative action and welfare, Kerry has an impeccably liberal voting record, one that Republicans are already starting to mock.

Whoa. I hasn't this guy learned from DU that Kerry is a corporatist Bush-lite candidate???

[blm]

10. heheh...yeah. Tell it to the political newbies.

"Kerry is no different than Bush, doncha know? DFA blogs told me so."

[oasis]

13. A kick for the Kerry=Dukakis peanut gallery.

[blm]

17. heheh...good one.

.