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NNN0LHI Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-09-04 08:12 AM
Original message
Kerry Opens Huge Lead in Tennessee
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=615&ncid=716&e=11&u=/nm/20040209/pl_nm/campaign_poll_dc

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democratic presidential front-runner John Kerry (news - web sites) owns a 24-point lead on rival John Edwards (news - web sites) on the eve of the Tennessee primary, putting him on course for another runaway victory, according to a Reuters/MSNBC/Zogby poll released Monday.


Kerry, who has rolled to 10 wins in the first 12 Democratic contests, leads Edwards 45 percent to 21 percent in the Tennessee poll. Retired Gen. Wesley Clark (news - web sites) is in third place at 19 percent, with former front-runner Howard Dean (news - web sites) lagging behind at 5 percent.


After sweeping three contests over the weekend, the Massachusetts senator is threatening to put a quick end to the Democratic race for the right to challenge President Bush (news - web sites) in November.


"Kerry's victories are not based on any one or two sub-groups. His support is wide and deep," pollster John Zogby said. "He has shown that he can hold all strands of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents together."

more

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BruinAlum Donating Member (565 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-09-04 08:19 AM
Response to Original message
1. Look at this
Kerry's victories are not based on any one or two sub-groups. His support is wide and deep," pollster John Zogby said. "He has shown that he can hold all strands of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents together."

Kerry's support is all across the spectrum. Pretty good news.
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Monte Carlo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-09-04 08:24 AM
Response to Reply #1
3. I think Kerry is a liberal who appears as a centrist...
... he seems controlled and moderate enough for the swing/centrist/whatever voters, and is liberal enough on the issues to attract the core of the Democratic Party.

I love him and what he's done for the party, but I think Howard Dean's biggest problem is that he is a centrist who appears as a hard-liberal. I think that has caused him great difficulties.
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King of New Orleans Donating Member (991 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-09-04 11:20 AM
Response to Reply #3
5. Very well stated
eom
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PATRICK Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-09-04 11:30 AM
Response to Reply #3
10. Thank Dean then
for being the lightning rod that has grounded much of Bushco's fire.
That despite having a more moderate record than Kerry's, because Howard dean fell on the sword of American cognitive dissonance and may have a effected a change that will eventually bring back the national mind to reality.

All because of the war evil the national forums cannot discuss rationally because it is the stumbling block and keystone of the present national calamity and collaboration. And Kerry will end this PNAC debacle as would any of them so all things are working out to a good goal whatever candidate commands the people's votes.

Kerry would never have gotten that kind of support which instead might have moved to the others.

It seems our Democratic primary process, as ugly in form as it is, has produced candidates who have markedly contributed to the welfare of party and nation.
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BootinUp Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-09-04 11:32 AM
Response to Reply #3
11. Only because
It ain't the GE yet. You don't generally get attacked very hard for being liberal in a democratic primary.
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Nicholas_J Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-09-04 02:07 PM
Response to Reply #3
16. Yup
Last spring when Kerry was doing very well in the polls, the DLC was worrying about how they were going to present the most liberal member of the Senate as a "centrist".

No Deans real problems is that he is not even a centirst, but his political record is littel differentiated from that of a moderate Republican. His fiscal policy does not follow the Democratic Centrist playbook for fiscal policy (the Hyde Park Declaration which calles for fiscal responsibility based on pprogressive taxation, not Deans fiscal conservatism, whiich is based on cutting government spending).

There is little in Deans record which one can present as actively supporting or fighting for liberal or progressive social ideas. Except for shifting medicaid coverage in Vemront from disabled adults to children (while Dean as governor, for 7 out of the 11 years he was governor, the nuber of people who were uninsured actually rose as much as 50 percent see: http://www.leg.state.vt.us/jfo/Vermont%20Uninsured.pdf.)

His policy on criminal rights was downright Draconian, and he was known to have stated that he didnt beleive that the state should have to pay to defend criminals who didnt have money, as 95 percent of them were guilty anyway. See:http://rutlandherald.com/Archive/Articles/Article/31792). He actually refused to allow opiate addicts who were arrested access to methadone treatment, as he opposed the use of methadone, but also didnt offer any other form of treatment, leaving addicts without medical treatment in jail..see http://www.drugpolicy.org/news/12_20_01vermont2.cfm)

Then we could also talk about his vetoing of various legislation that would have greatly benefited the public, but since such legislation would not benefit the various energy industries and pharmaceutical industries that bankrolled Deans campigns for governor, not much else could be expected from the governor. In particular, his threat to veto medical marijuana legislation that passed both the Vemront House and Senate, as well as being supported by 70 percent of the Vermont Public in every poll taken, primarily because the pharmaceutical indstry lobbied heavily against it is another example.

The only two positive liberal evnts that occured in Vermont while Dean was Governor were items which were forced on him, an which he offered no support to prior to them being forrced on him

Civil Unions was something Dean refused to say anything about, support or not, for the entire time it was in the Vermont Courts, and when the liberals in the Vermont Legislature presented him initially with a bill that allowed gay marriage, Dean cme out in opposition to it, so the legislature had to backtrack and present him with civil unions.

Vermont's progressive property tax was opposed by Dean, ut when the Vermont Supreme Court said that the version he preferred was unconstitutional, Dean had to let the Vermont Legislature create a progressive property tax, but he would take no part in its creation.

In reality. It is not even possible to discribe Dean as a centrist. This was really Trippi's idea, to play down Deans conservatism. Now that Trippi is gone, Dean's attempts to present himself as a liberla are simply muddled, and he has now resorted to virtually beggin the Wisconsin voters not to pay atention to the polls.

THey are not, they polls are indicative of what the people of Wisconsin have paid attention to about Dean. It looks like they dont quite like him as the two most recent polls place Kerry far in the forefront, and Dean who was in 2nd place in Wisconsin a few days ago, has fallen to 4th place in polls released today.

I am afraid that Dean might have done better if he had played his campaign far closer to his actual record than to have tried to play someone he is not. Eventually, in a campaign like this, how what you have done does not mesh with what you are saying eventually catches up to you. Hats what the media is for.




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BlondieK143 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-09-04 08:23 AM
Response to Original message
2. Interesting...
Because all the polling at our local headquarters has shown that Clark is doing exceptionally well. But then again, I don't have the numbers to back that up at the moment. All I'm saying is that I wouldn't count TN as a done deal for Kerry, yet.
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MaineDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-09-04 11:24 AM
Response to Reply #2
7. You're right
We've seen how the polls have been wrong before.

Even though I'm a Kerry supporter and I like the sound of these polls, the chickens and hatching fable comes to mind.

Good luck with your candidate. I hope your state has the great turnout that we've been seeing so far.
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kerry-is-my-prez Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-09-04 11:29 AM
Response to Reply #2
9. In every state, Clark has polled really low and Kerry really high.
n/t
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tnlefty Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-09-04 11:40 AM
Response to Reply #2
14. Interesting "discussion" at a party dinner/fundraiser Sat.
Clark will win TN.

No he won't because Harold Ford, Jr. has cranked up the insider, establishment machine in Memphis for Kerry.
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pmbryant Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-09-04 11:17 AM
Response to Original message
4. If true, this is starting to look like a lopsided contest
I was extremely disappointed that Clark and Edwards were both stuck in single digits in most of the states that had votes over the weekend.

A poor showing in Tennessee or Virginia could be the end (for all practical purposes) of their hopes.

And I was hoping to drag this contest out at least into March. :-(

--Peter
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Tim_in_HK Donating Member (544 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-09-04 11:27 AM
Response to Reply #4
8. I think this things going at least until March 2.
Neither Clark or Edwards will quit regardless of what happens tomorrow, I think.
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Tom Rinaldo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-09-04 11:22 AM
Response to Original message
6. Zogby polls are always more suspect than most
Other polls have Kerry ahead, but not nearly so far. Sorry, I just don't trust Zogby polls, above and beyond the problems always associated with that uncertain art.
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kerry-is-my-prez Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-09-04 11:32 AM
Response to Reply #6
12. Zogby is known to "be for hire" and is disrespected by other pollsters.
He's done a lot of work for the Republicans (despite being a Democrat). Why he is used by all of the networks I don't know.
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King of New Orleans Donating Member (991 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-09-04 11:46 AM
Response to Reply #12
15. Just MSNBC (NBC)
I believe.

I do know he's an Arab-American (of Lebanese descent) I believe. Arab-Americans have tended to vote Republican (In part because Jewish voters have been heavily Democratic). Of course, given recent events in the Middle East, how both blocks of voters vote this fall is expected to more mixed (though even among these groups, domestic issues tend to outweigh foreign)

How any of this affects Zogby's personal beliefs, I have no idea.
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spooky3 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-09-04 02:39 PM
Response to Reply #15
19. For South Carolina, Zogby predicted a dead heat
between Kerry & Edwards. I think he said Edwards 36, Kerry 32, with a 4+ MOE. South Carolina went about 45-30 Edwards, as I recall. He was similarly far off on New Hampshire, until he magically changed predictions one day before the primary. On other polls he was closer. I'm not sure that he has a dog in this fight, but some of his polls have been way off the mark. I don't know why.
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Nicholas_J Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-09-04 02:27 PM
Response to Reply #6
17. They were until recently
Zogby was actiually polling with lower difference between the candidates ion the earlier polls with things like 3 or 4 point between Kerry and Dean in the New Hampshire polls whem American Research was getting the numbers that ended up being the final results in all of the races. This is the first time Zogby's numbers have been consistant with the ARG and other polls. It looks like he has started to tighten up his methods, because he is worried about losing his status as the leading pollster that he won for being on the money in the 2000 election:

Zogby's numbers have usually selected the winner, but his personal interpretation of the polls have been rather bad. In december he stated that he could not see a Kerry comeback being in the cards in anyway. But then, the numbers rather suggested that Kerry wasnt doing all that well in December, and no one had actually voted. Once real votes have been taken though, polls have a rather eerie tendencey to come true, as no matter what, the average human being doesnt like to buck trends, and wants to side with a winner, so the more a person wins, the more likely their future wins are assured.

If you compare Zogby's recent poll in Tennessee to ARG's they both have Kerry with a significant lead.

Zogby International 2/7-8 4.1%


Kerry 45%
Edwards 21%
Clark 19%
Dean 5%
Kucinich 0.1%
Sharpton 2%


American Research Group 2/4-6 4%


Kerry 32%
Edwards 21%
Clark 20%
Dean 8%
Kucinich 1%
Sharpton 1%
undecided 17%

http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/CurrentPolls.htm

Zogby's polls are a few days ahead of ARG's and these results may be correct, becaue local polls in Tennessee and Virginia show Kerry pulling ahead as well.

I would not be surprised if tonights ARG polls come into line with the current Zogby poll in Tennessee and Virginia. It seems that as the campign continues, more and more states are coming nto line with Kerry winning somewhere near half of the votes in each state, which has been the strongest showing of any candidate in a Democratic campign for presidential candidates in years. And usually there are far fewer candidates. For Kerry to take even 40 percent of the votes in a campaign with six candidates is amazing.

The Bush administrations is in a bit of a quandry, as they were expecting to be able to runs against an easy to marginalize candidate, Dean, and now they may be running against one who is not so easy to do this to. In fact, though the race for the nominee may gon on clear to july, by early march whiever is in the lead will be the obvious candidate, and this person will have months to raise money to fight Bush. IT will end up being one of the longest presidential campaigns in U.S. history.
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Nicholas_J Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-09-04 02:36 PM
Response to Reply #6
18. Up until these polls
Whenever Zogby was polling, his polling numbers alway had a much closer distance between the candidates than all of the other polls, and I think that all of the questioning about how far off his polls were compared to others have sharpened him up a bit.

But Zogby himself states that regardless of the numbers, all polls really do is indicate trends. And the trend is fo Kerry. With progressive primaries, more and more polls come in with final numbers having Kerry hovering somewhere around the fifty percent mark, and it is my belief that they will stay this way clear through super tuesday. The more a cnadidate wins, the more wins he gets later. That is a simple fact prive over again through history. People want to be on the winning side for the most part.
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Punkingal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-09-04 11:39 AM
Response to Original message
13. FWIW...
I have 2 brothers in Tennessee, and they told me last week they had already voted absentee, and they voted for Kerry. I asked why, and they said they thought he could beat Bush. They said they didn't like that Clark voted for Nixon and Reagan, and they feel Edwards doesn't have enough experience. I was kind of surprised...I though they would go for Clark or Edwards. But I'm not surprised at the poll numbers. My brothers are usually a good indicator of how TN dems are thinking.
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