More historical examples of uphill climb faced by a Kerry nomination

[digno dave]

with a mention of an available option, of course...


http://scientists.forclark.com/story/2004/2/6/22109/28230


Peter Stein Party voters in any primary election, whether it be the mayoralty of Ithaca or the presidency of the United states, must balance two questions; which candidate do they prefer, and which candidate is more electable. When the stakes are high and the differences between the parties are very great, the balance must tilt decisively towards electability. Responsible Democratic primary voters must remember that electability depends more on how favorably Republican and independent, rather than Democratic voters will respond to their candidate.

In making their decision, Democratic voters should keep in mind the following facts: In the 13 presidential elections since World War II (excluding the 2000 election, where the actual winner is still a matter of debate),

*    The incumbent won six of the nine races in which a president sought a second term.
*    Democrats who were generally perceived as liberal won 3 presidential elections, and lost 6. Democrats perceived as middle-of-the-road won 4 elections and lost 1.
*    Democratic candidates from southern states won 4 times and lost once; those from mid-western and eastern states won once and lost 6 times. (The 1948 Truman victory is not included, since Missouri is both southern and mid-western.)
*    No Democrat ever won the presidency without winning at least 5 southern states.
*    Polls consistently show that the American people have more confidence in Republicans to manage our national security
*    Since 1948, the fraction of voters declaring themselves Democratic has declined from about 50% to about 30%. The Republican fraction has stayed constant at about 30%.


rest of article on web site posted above...

[Old and In the Way]

1. Scientists for Clark?

OK....we've never had an incumbant like GWB, we've never had mess like the past 3 years, either. Never had a selection like in 2000, either. I don't think historical trends will play for much in this particular election, but I could be wrong, I have been before.

;-)

[digno dave]

2. Would you prefer the blog were named <inherited millionaires for Clark>?

you make good points. TYhings are unique this year. But still soemthing we all should be thinking considering.

[blm]

3. did you know that every 40 or so years a Senator is elected President?

The last time was Kennedy. That was 44 years ago. So, it looks like we're due for another Senator to win.

[Toucano]

4. Not quite.

Harding and Kennedy are the only sitting Senators to be elected president. That hardly counts as every 40 years.

Neither was fighting an incumbent.

Both died in office.

4.5% of US Presidents were elected from the Senate.

22.7% of US Presidents were Generals.

Of course, I'm not arguing that we're bound by history, but it's interesting to note.

[blm]

5. Point being that you can say just about anything based on "historical"

readings.

[digno dave]

6. no

not really...you can't discount something with this obvious a track record.