Ok put up or shut up time. I say Dems will net SEVEN Senate seats

[yellowcanine]

and at least 40 House seats. I think there is a wave coming. I am less sure about what will happen in Governor's races, though I believe Ehrlich will LOSE in Maryland and my hot hunch is that Kinky Friedman will be governor-elect of Texas before the night is over. Icing on the cake would be for Kyl to go down in Arizona giving the Dems a net of eight Senate seats. Not probable, but would not be a huge surprise either if the wave is big enough.

[GreenPartyVoter]

1. I sincerely hope you are right. Few things would please me more.

[Arkana]

2. Kinky Friedman Governor?

Sorry, but that's one I just cannot see happening. I see a 50-50 tie in the Senate--but we sweep them out of the House.

[babylonsister]

3. Kinky is polling the lowest of the candidates in TX-

thankfully. That would be a shocker.

[kurth]

6. Betting line has Perry winning with ~40%

He'll prompty claim a mandate, of course, like his former boss did.

[onehandle]

4. We need 51 Dems, so that "Senator" Lieberman can be ignored for six years.

If we only get 50 "plus" Lieberman, he will become the most powerful Senator in Decades.

[cali]

5. I'll put up

a quart of Vermont Grade A medium Amber maple syrup that you're wrong about both the Senate and the House. I predict dems pick up 4 in the Senate and 28 in the House.

[Cosmocat]

7. Yeah ...

I think that is the realistic guess ...

I would say a good day gets the Ds 5 seats in the Senate and maybe a tick over 30 house seats ...

[yellowcanine]

9. I only "put up" my prognistigating reputation as it ain't worth much anyway. I

would never bet real money or goods on the whims of the "oh so forgetful of history" American electorate.

[longship]

8. I'm with you on the tsunami.

Seven Senate seats is going to be extraordinarily difficult. However, I have been calling it as upwards of 50 House seats and 6-8 Senate seats for several weeks and have seen no reason to change my predictions.

I am very dubious of this "election is tightening" spewage. It's too like the MSM to say that to blow their own horns and promote their election night coverage. Maybe that's the only way they think that they can get the undoubtedly demoralized Repukes to watch tomorrow.

[Ian David]

13. How many of the Repukes who keep their seats will be indicted...

or forced to resign within a year anyway?

[yellowcanine]

17. Senate seats are actually easier to "nationalize" than House seats.

There are lots of congressional districts where Bush is still relatively popular while there are only a handful of states where Bush is close to 50% - and he is below 40% in most of the states with competitive Senate elections. The Senate also plays much more of a role in foreign policy and the Iraq fisco is definately driving the train this time. It is not all that unusual for all the close Senate seats to break the same way - it happened in 1994 I believe. What is most unusual this time around is that it is quite possible that no Democratic House seats will be lost while there are plenty of Republican House seats that are going to be taken over by Democrats. That is why I am optimistic about the Senate. I don't actually believe the "poll tightening" stuff either.

[liberalpragmatist]

22. Senate races usually seem to break one way

In 1998, nearly all the close races broke towards the Democrats. We were holding a lot more seats that were up for election and were in real danger of losing four-to-five. Instead, the margin remained the same. The Senate races also broke our way in 2000, with us winning 6 out of 8 tossups and making a net gain of 4. In 2002, the Republicans won most of the close races (we won South Dakota and Arkansas, they carried the rest - MO, NC, GA, NH, MN, CO). And in '04, the Republicans also carried most of the tossups.

I think we pick up 6, or barring that, 5. I think we hold onto MD and NJ narrowly and win PA, RI, IL, MT, and VA, with the possible 6th seat coming from Missouri which will be an absolute nail-binder.

[gr8dane_daddy]

10. My prediction is...

House - pick up 25 seats
Senate - pick up 5 seats

Senate count makes me most nervous...House sure to go dem.

[Ian David]

11. I disagree. I stand by my prediction. The GOP will hold only three seats

The Republickers will hold only three seats:

Rick Santorum
Katherine Harris
Joe LIEberman (who will officially switch parties).

But then, sometime before January 20th, all three will commit suicide, along with hundreds of others, as part of a UFO Cult ritual.

Unitary Executive Nancy Pelosi will ask that flags be flown at half-staff in their honor.

[Justitia]

12. No counting chickens before they're hatched! Don't tempt Fate! -eom

[KKKarl is an idiot]

14. I agree

except with the TX race. No way is Friedman going to take that one. Kyl in AZ may very well go down. But there is going to be a rout in both the house & senate.

[yellowcanine]

18. Friedman was a "hunch". It is not based on anything real except that I do believe in God and

the Texas electorate as a whole deserves Kinky Friedman for giving us George W. Bush.

[Cameron27]

15. There's a chance that Kyl is toast

but the Senate...just pray.

[Kira]

16. What about Chaffee

He is gaining ground and is now one point up.

[yellowcanine]

19. A true wave swamps him also. In fact, it is the moderates who are most

vulnerable when an election is successfully nationalized and a wave occurs.

[dmallind]

20. 5 and 31 has been my guess for a week or so

Still is - though I'm a bit worried about the 5 dropping by one.

Assuming the votes get counted properly of course.

[Demeter]

21. I Say NINE

This is going to make the Blitzkrieg look like a Welcome Wagon visit.