Reality based Economic Talking Points

[troublemaker]

The US Economy is quite possibly entering recession in the 4th quarter, meaning we may already be in recession but won't "know" it for a few months.

3rd quarter growth was .9% to 1.3% (Both figures are valid due to a one-time blip in autos. .9 is the adjusted figure.) Meanwhile the Fed is worried about inflation. Stagflation isn't just something in history books.

Toady's productivity growth number was 0.00%. That's right... ZERO.

The yield curve has inverted -- when that happens it's not always the start of a recession but it never fails to happen at the start of a recession.

Median home sale prices are down 10% from last year. That means the average American family lost 10% this year on their only substantial investment.

Todays retail numbers are telling. Discount stores where 90% of Americans shop are down (Walmart, Target, etc.). Luxury retailers are up. (Nordstrom, Neiman Marcus, Guess Jeans...)

People who know more about this than I do can surely flesh out these observations, but the bottom line is that this economy is not working for you unless you are one of the folks who shop at Neiman Marcus and spend $400 on a pair of jeans.