LA Times/Bloomberg poll shows Webb up by 3

[Stinky The Clown]

Click here for a PDF (NOT a web page) of the news release.

The meat:

Just under three out of five Virginia likely voters see the country as being off on the wrong track, while only a third say it is going in the right direction. By 11 points they’d prefer Democrats to Republicans as the majority party in Congress after the midterm election, but voters are only giving a very slight and well within margin
lead to the Democrat –James Webb - in his bid to take the seat out from under Republican incumbent U.S. Senator George Allen.

If the election were held today, Webb is barely edging Allen 47% to 44% with 3% voting for someone else and 6% not sure. That is a lead well inside the five point margin of error for likely voters in Virginia. Nearly nine out of 10 Virginia voters say they are certain of their vote, including 92% of Allen’s voters and 88% of Webb’s.

Allen’s campaign has been dogged by questions about his racial sensitivity and character but a 55% majority of Virginia voters say that where a candidate stands on the issues is more important to them than his character. Amusingly, Webb leads by 51% to 43% among those who say issues are most important while Allen gets the vote among those who say character is most important.

Both candidates are enjoying similarly strong backings among voters of their own parties – about nine out of ten in each case. In addition, voters are sure of their votes - more than nine out of 10 of Allen’s voters say they are certain they will vote for him, and Webb has a strong 88% certainty as well. In each case only 6% say they are still considering their votes.

Independents and in particular moderates are backing Webb by strong margins, along with women and urban dwellers, while Allen picks up the vote among whites, men, and those living in rural areas of the state.

The stats:

Some demographics of the U.S. Senate vote in Virginia
- table reads horizontally Allen Webb S/Else D/Know
All Likely 44 47 3 6
Party Affiliation Democrat 6 89 1 4
Independent 39 48 2 11
Republican 90 6 1 3
Political Ideology Liberal 8 83 1 8
Moderate 26 60 8 6
Conservative 77 19 0 4
Race/Ethnicity White 50 44 2 4
Non-White 20 56 7 17
Gender Male 49 43 3 5
Female 39 51 2 8
Location of Home City 33 60 2 5
Suburb 45 45 1 9
Small town 40 46 10 4
Rural 60 33 1 6

[carolinayellowdog]

1. City 60/33 Webb, Rural 60/33 Allen

Perfectly illustrates my oft-repeated theme that urban Virginians, in the western and southern parts of the state as well as the northern and eastern parts, vote Democrat. I was just in Radford and saw 12 Webb signs, 0 Allen.

[Stinky The Clown]

2. That pretty much says it all, huh?

Sadly, this poll is either prescient or an outlier.

Much as I wish it were the former, I suspect its the latter.

[Olney Blue]

3. Damn, I want Webb to win. Hope its true.