MSNBC
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15110582/ Oct. 24, 2006 | 11:00 a.m. ET
The tsunami is coming
Bob Shrum
There’s no way to spin a tsunami except in advance. Karl Rove is busy trying to convince people that it’s not coming or that retread arguments like terrorism and taxes are a seawall that will protect Republicans against it in the midterm elections. But come November 8th, I believe the Republican majorities in the House, and even the Senate, are likely to be under water. The domestic political equivalent of Cheney’s absurd claim that we’re making progress in Iraq -- the pretense that nothing fundamental has changed in Washington -- would only carry the White House from defeat to derision.
The amazing thing about elections is that they count the votes -- usually. And the voters get to decide why they’re casting their ballots. The Republican ads featuring Osama bin Laden -- how I wished they’d captured him for real instead of on film -- represent worn-out appeals that no longer have the credibility to persuade Americans that Democrats, as Bush crudely put it recently, don’t want to win the war on terror. The country knows all too well that Bush is losing in Iraq, and now maybe even in Afghanistan, while North Korea tests nuclear weapons, Iran develops them, and terrorist cells have proliferated across the globe. Similarly, beating the tin drum of taxes has little or no resonance with the American people. A decisive majority in this election can’t be built on an appeal to repeal estate taxes for those poor souls who have over $10 million. It might have been clever to call it “the death tax,” but this trick is all but dead right now.
The Republicans and Rove may not have noticed what every poll is reporting -- that the top issues are Iraq, stagnant wages, outsourcing and healthcare. They may not have noticed, as they celebrate the rise in the Dow Jones average, that there are now two economies—the economy of stock quotes and GDP stats—and the economy of standards of living that haven’t risen since Bush raised his hand and took the oath as he entered an office that was handed to him by a one-vote margin on the Supreme Court.
The Republicans have also seen their ultimate political safety net -- a claim to superior moral values -- shredded by Mark Foley’s e-mails, the House leadership’s cover-up, Jack Abramoff, Duke Cunningham, Tom DeLay, and Bob Ney. The party of moral values stands revealed as the party of moral bankruptcy. Gay-baiting about same-sex marriage -- sometimes from within some congressional closet; have all the doors been opened yet? – is becoming as ineffective as it is unworthy.
So the more lurid the Republican attack ads are, the wider the Democratic margin in the polls seems to be. In November, I believe America will send a clear message: the era of unaccountable government is over; the time for corrupt government has passed; the politics of fear and smear, which nearly failed in 2004, has finally had its ugly day.