Who is Constituent Dynamics?

[brooklynite]

Political Wire has been referencing some very optimistic polling from them, which I'd love to believe, but it seems very inconsistent with what I've been hearing about some races (for example, John Hall in NY-19 leading Congresswoman Sue Kelly). Does anyone know anything about their methodology and track record?

[ps1074]

1. A bipartisan public affairs opinion research and polling organization

Thomas Riehle, a Democrat, and Lance Tarrance, a veteran GOP pollster…make RT Strategies.

· Two senior survey research executives, with 50 years of national political and public policy experience

· One Democrat and one Republican, bringing their combined best thinking to identifying the challenges and finding the solutions for clients through public affairs research

· Methodology neutral, using the best tools available for each assignment: random digit dialing (RDD) telephone polls, interactive voice response (IVR) polling, on-line panel research and qualitative research.

http://www.rtstrategies.com/

[OneBlueSky]

2. don't be surprised at the John Hall lead . . .

people in the 19th have no particular affection for Sue Kelly . . . and John's stands on the war and healthcare, and his reputation as a committed environmentalist, are resonating . . . I wouldn't be at all surprised if he is leading . . .

[brooklynite]

3. Yes, but...

I have a friend working on the campaign, who says he has no advertising, and no campaign message designed to peal away disaffected R's and I's (even for its proximity to NYC, this is, by NY State standards rural "red state" territory).

[OneBlueSky]

5. I haven't seen any tv ads yet, but . . .

he has sent two four-color mailings to everyone in the district -- one on healthcare, the other on oil companies . . . I expect to see more, as well as some tv spots closer to election day . . . there is also an independent group (I forget which one) running anti-Kelly ads on various cable (and possibley broadcast) channels . . .

finally, John has a large volunteer operation that's about to launch a massive door-to-door and telephone campaign . . .

I don't know if he has a nine point lead, but I'm pretty sure that, at worst, he's running neck-and-neck with Kelly . . .

[Tiggeroshii]

4. NY 19 seems to be the only one that's differing from other polling

It's like a 360, essentially. But most of their other polls seem quite consisten with a lot of what i've been seeing. For instance, there was a pollin FL13 that confirmed CD's polling on it within a couple points. Also, a number of other districts had confirmation of other polls, NY19 is clearly an exception.