NOV 2006 Election Horse Race Thread:

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

Not sure if this will work, but here goes. I'm interested primarily in the races where there appears to be a clear cut advantage right now, not where it's "promising".

In every race I've listed the Democrat first.

Please help fill in?

HOUSE: (+15 needed for Democrats?)

Demcrats look to gain a seat:

NY 26 (Davis vs. Reynolds)
IN 8 (Davis vs. Hostettler)
TX 22 (Lampson vs. Sekula-Gibbs)
FL 16 (Mahoney vs. Negron/Foley)


No change/very close:

NC 11 (Shulver vs. Taylor) Dem win would be +1, loss would be neutral
OH 18 (Space vs. Padgett) Dem win would be +1, loss would be neutral

Democrats look to lose a seat:




SENATE: (+6 needed for Democrats?)

Demcrats look to gain a seat:

PA: Casey over Santorum
OH: Brown over DeWine?
MT: Tester over Burns
RI: Whitehouse over Chafee

No change/very close:

VA: Webb vs. Allen (Dem win would be +1, loss would be neutral)
MO: McCaskill vs. Talent (Dem win would be +1, loss would be neutral)
TN: Ford vs. Corker (Dem win would be +1, loss would be neutral)

Democrats look to lose a seat:


GOVERNOR:

Demcrats look to gain a seat:

No change/very close:

Democrats look to lose a seat:

[Hippo_Tron]

1. Dem senate gains include...

MT: Tester over Burns and RI: Whitehouse over Chafee (we will very likely win these)

MO: McCaskill vs Talent is a dead heat right now and would be a dem pickup. TN: Ford vs Corker is very close but the momentum is in Ford's favor. Also would be a Dem pickup if we win.

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

2. Original post edited accordingly.

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

3. Updated....

HOUSE: (+15 needed for Democrats?)

Demcrats look to gain a seat:

NY 26 (Davis vs. Reynolds)
IN 8 (Davis vs. Hostettler)
TX 22 (Lampson vs. Sekula-Gibbs) DeLay district
FL 16 (Mahoney vs. Negron/Foley)
AZ 8 (Giffords over Graf) - not sure if this represents a gain or new seat or what


No change/very close:

PA 7 (Sestak vs. Weldon) Dem win would be +1, loss would be neutral
NC 11 (Shuler vs. Taylor) Dem win would be +1, loss would be neutral
OH 18 (Space vs. Padgett) Dem win would be +1, loss would be neutral

Democrats look to lose a seat:




SENATE: (+6 needed for Democrats?)

Demcrats look to gain a seat:

PA: Casey over Santorum
OH: Brown over DeWine?
MT: Tester over Burns
RI: Whitehouse over Chafee

No change/very close:

VA: Webb vs. Allen (Dem win would be +1, loss would be neutral)
MO: McCaskill vs. Talent (Dem win would be +1, loss would be neutral)
TN: Ford vs. Corker (Dem win would be +1, loss would be neutral)

Democrats look to lose a seat:


GOVERNOR:

Demcrats look to gain a seat:

No change/very close:

Democrats look to lose a seat:

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

4. kick