Democrats lose Florida (GOP kicks ass)

[Poppyseedman]

unless we GOTV

Total Registered voters in Florida: 10,429,566 (August 7, 2006)

Rep: 3,930,602
Dem: 4,230,478
Ind: 238,842
Lib: 15,317
NPA : 1,957,283

Looks good doesn't it. Got them on the run, kicking ass, taking names. Game over.

Nope, not even close. Voter turn out by percentage in 2006 primary.

Largest Dem counties:
Broward: 11.7 %
Miami Dade: 16.0 %
Palm Beach: 15.0 %

Largest Rep counties:
Pinellas: 20.4 %
Sarasota: 24.8 %
Brevard: 22.0 %

Bottom line is we could have a 1,700,000 edge in registered voters and still lose if we don't get the voters out and the NPA in our corner.

The only thing that matters is GOTV.


http://election.dos.state.fl.us/voterreg/pdf/2006/z26CountyVoterRegByParty.pdf

http://election.dos.state.fl.us/elections/resultsarchive/Index.asp?ElectionDate=9/5/2006&DATAMODE=

http://election.dos.state.fl.us/index.html

[TheCowsCameHome]

1. Huh?

[Poppyseedman]

4. It's GOTV time

[TheCowsCameHome]

6. I'm checking my TV Guide right now. Which network?

[Torgo Johnson]

11. GOTV=Get Out The Vote

[TheCowsCameHome]

12. Good advice. Hope Ohio does the same.

[Canuckistanian]

25. Had me confused for a while, too

You see anything with "TV" on the end of it and assume it's a televsion network.

[WCGreen]

18. There were no contested primaries...

No one is going to vote if there is nothing to vote for...

[bowens43]

2. Primary turn out is completely irrelevant.

[Poppyseedman]

3. Tell me that after Nov election.

I ran the numbers in 2004, the rethugs did a better job in GOTV, that is the ONLY reason they won.

[Herman Munster]

5. voter registration is kind of meaningless

lots of "democrats" in the panhandle are voting for republicans, these are old-school pre-lyndon johnson racist democrats. They never bothered to change their party registration.

[madfloridian]

7. Talk to Luis Navarro.

He was hired by Karen Thurman herself, paid 180,000 to build a voterbase and GOTV.

Those of us involved a lot in party stuff seldom hear anything at all.

[Dr.Phool]

15. And, I've yet to see ANY GOTV effort.

[ellenfl]

17. then you need to go to moveon.org.

they are organizing phone banks. at one that i attended, one of the bankers called someone who was hosting a party at the same time!

you can even call from home. moveon will get you set up.

ellen fl

[madfloridian]

20. DFA and some of our DEC had a good GOTV effort in July.

Some of us are using the voter database to call. We were getting started when the "hostile" takeover occurred, and we are letting them have it their way for now.

We keep our DFA as active as we can. Some of us work with the database and make calls and write notes.

[democrat in Tallahassee]

8. the only thing that matters is DIEBOLD; don't believe this Florida

crap. Just remember who the governor is here.

[Poppyseedman]

13. So you going to vote ?

If Diebold is such a concern, absentee voting is an option

[DoYouEverWonder]

21. Early voting is better

I think it starts Oct 23rd (?)

[tinfoilinfor2005]

22. Just demand the machine with the paper trail.

In some counties (mine included) both electronic and paper ballot will be used in early voting. Insist on the paper. And if you vote absentee like I did, don't fudge on the price of stamps. Several years ago in Monroe county, hundreds of absentee ballots were tossed in a closet because they arrived with insufficient postage. Apparently the rate had gone up a few cents from previous years, and voters weren't notified. When in doubt, add a stamp.

[tavalon]

26. Good old Monroe County

Where I grew up. Nice to see they are still as backwards as ever.

[eomer]

27. Leon County (Tallahassee) will let the voter choose between paper ballot

(with precinct-based optical scanning) and a Diebold touchscreen DRE.

If I were you I wouldn't absentee vote -- I would go to the polling place and use the paper ballot. The chain of custody of paper ballots voted at the polling place should be better than that of absentees.

Here's an article in the Tallahassee Democrat that talks about the choices Leon County voters will have:
http://www.tallahassee.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060814/NEWS01/608140310/1010

[AndyTiedye]

9. Wasn't That an Uncontested Democratic Primary?

[onenote]

10. i agree getting out the vote is important. but the primary doesn't mean

much of anything. The repubs had a Senate race, the Democrats didn't. Plus, get out the vote efforts are far different when you are in a general election and the party is trying to get out voters for its candidates than when you're in primary mode and getting out the vote is left to the candidates. From my experience, many primary candidates don't have the resources for a big GOTV effort and even those that do are trying to preserve resources for the general.

[jab105]

14. Nelson wins easy, but a lot of the democrats statewide have run horrible

and I stress HORRIBLE campaigns!!

Jim Davis...good grief, I barely know about him...didn't see my first Davis commercial till last week...after seeing about 10 per day of the Crist commercial labelling Davis as a "Liberal Washington Politician"...and do you know what Davis commercial says...uhh, Davis doesn't like the FCAT and Crist does...

GOOD GRIEF!! No commercials until 3 weeks before the election and all you can think of is the FCAT? It's just not effective!
My representative is Cliff Stearns...he doesn't even need to run commercials...if Democrats had a strong push, we could beat him, but again, we don't even try...Bruderly, don't get me wrong, is a great guy, not the most exciting person in the world though, and zero for advertising...

Then we have Jennings vs. Ulrich...this one is closer as far as ad money, but Ulrich positioned himself really well, and Jennings went negative before adequately introducing himself...

Then there is Nelson, who I'd think wasw a republican based on his ads...but he'll win and its a democrat...

We had GREAT organization on the ground in 2004 for Kerry (no matter what the REpublcians say, it really was well organized!!)...this year its not very good at all...

And, the only GOTV that works IMO is house to house in your own neighborhood...I did the phone in 2004, and it was bad, people weren't voting because they were called too much...and they were not friendly...but again, haven't gotten any information about even volunteering to go around the neighborhood...

[Ravy]

16. Lots of Florida voters in the general are not here for the primary.

Not that GOTV is a bad idea. It is always worth the effort. It is just that the numbers are skewed when you take the snowbirds into effect.

[HockeyMom]

19. I might move permanently to Florida in about 6 months

Is Naples predominantly Republican? I want my vote to count. If and when I move, I am considering changing my registration back to Independent. Beat them at their own game and keep them guessing.

[tinfoilinfor2005]

23. Out of curiosity, why Naples?

I'm only asking because I have lived in Fl for thirty years and spent lots of time (because of business) all over the state, except for the Panhandle. Naples would not be my first choice. But then again, not my last.

[HockeyMom]

28. Husband is living and working there

Long story, but he has a condo there.

[usregimechange]

24. You are 50000% right