We are probably going to need 7 senate pickups, not 6

[LynneSin]

I'm thinking that Joe Lieberman is to not be trusted although I'm sure the Dems will barter with him if he's the swing vote.

The assumption was that we always needed a netgain of 6 democrats to retake the senate, but that assumption was that Connecticut would have been retained as a democrat. And since Joe is technically running as an independant - he can't be counted.

I'm thinking that we are not going to lose any seats, even New Jersey.

Seats that we will probably win include Pennsylvania and Montana

Seats that we are trending for a win are Rhode Island, Missouri, Tennessee

Seats where we should win but who knows what Diebold will do - Ohio

Seventh seat will have to be Virginia - can we do it? Arizona is starting to go weak republican but I don't think we can catch up in time.

Keep your fingers crossed!

[wakeme2008]

1. LynneSin,, I am also worrying about the House

there are a number of Dinos that could go Indep. and side with the Repugs because of "Dems are weak on security".

[LynneSin]

7. You know, I'm not buying this "DINO" crap

Because it's in the eyes of the beholder. To me, John Murtha was pretty much a DINO for all of his career with his intense anti-choice voting record. But he's also come out strong against the war - so what does that make him now?

Every congressional district is made up with it's own unique brand of voters. Take PA-10 for an example. I know this district well - my heritage is from that district. It's a very conservative, religious, gun-toting district. In 2004, this district re-elected Republican Don Sherwood to his house seat with 92% of the vote and yes, he had a democratic opponent.

But now we have a chance to win that seat because of Sherwood's infidelities, something that does not sit well with this strong christian district. And in fact, we're polling 8pts ahead with Chris Carney. But I've read his record and I highly doubt he'll come across as a liberal. But what he will do if he wins that seat and perhaps for years afterwards is keep PA-10 in democratic hands. But you know, here's the crazy thing about it all - I don't want our democratic party to operate like the republican party - where everyone has to vote lock-step with the partyline or else. I want us to have our big tent.

Finally, as it's been discussed many many times here at DU. It's not the floor vote that makes me fight hard for control of the house and senate. It has been and always will be committee votes.

[wakeme2008]

9. I do buy into the Dino crap

:)

Point is Bush and the Repugs are going to be pushing the pork and committee assignments and anything they can to get switchers, and IMHO the Dinos will be the first targets.

[Zynx]

18. I don't buy that for one second. I can't see a single one doing that.

[speedoo]

2. Winning seven would be so sweet.

Then the dems could tell Lieberman to fuck off, if he starts pulling shit. Better yet, LaMont beats the traitor and we get a real democrat back in that seat.

[LynneSin]

4. Even if Lamont doesn't win - we need big voter turnout in CT

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2006/Info/hothouse.html#CT

There are three very hot congressional races in Connecticut - all them held by republicans in democrat leaning district. I'm hoping for a big turnout for Lamont which would help get three democrats elected into the house.

Perhaps this could be the one bright star to come out of this senate race in Connecticut even if we're stuck with Lieberman - perhaps we might add +3 to the house from CT

[speedoo]

6. Agreed. All three of those seats are winnable.

I would be very happy to get rid of that loser Nancy Johnson.

[keta11]

3. Don't worry about NJ, its in the bag!!!

Who are the pollsters kidding?? Hudson County alone would put a stop to Junior right there.

NJ is a blue-state, period. They should go ask Doug Forrester (R) about volatile polls.

[LynneSin]

8. I never doubted it for a minute

Every poll taken from groups within the state of New Jersey has Bob Menendez in the lead. All the polling groups outside of New Jersey didn't.

[keta11]

11. They just cant win NJ

Their main man in the state - 2002 "Senator to be" and 2005 "Governor to be" millionaire Doug Forrester got trounced by more than 10% both times. Pollsters were making noises about how well he was doing and Repukes were crowing about how they were gonna win. I think we put him to retirement fro politics.

Hudson County, one of the more populous counties and borders NYC alone is a "3 or 4" to 1 Democratic stronghold. Menendez is from Union City in the county, huge Latino population.

[Catchawave]

5. I choose to remain inspired....

WE can do this :hi:

[Stinky The Clown]

10. Your worry and your seat count and your predictions are .....

.... pretty much the common wisdom. For what its worth, I agree with all of what you said. The self-selected third party guy in Connecticut can't be trusted further than he can be thrown. He'll go wherever the best offer comes from. Its what weasels do.

So that means we need one more. I know Arizona's trending our way, but it may be, as you say, too late to really make a go of it. Virginia's lataest polling shows a two point spread with Allen up but within the MOE of a 1000 person sample - pretty good. I think this one is gonna be a surprize and I think it will be Webb by a whisker.

Now, if that happens, consider it a presage of a big wave. And that wave culd go all the way to the waveless desert and caqrry Pederson right along with it. Will it also go through Nevada? Wouldn't ***that*** be sweet!

[calico1]

12. Ooops.

[calico1]

13. I would like for the Dems not to need

Lieberman for a majority. Can you even imagine how much more arrogant he would get if he knew he held the balance? Ugh.

There was heavy, record breaking turnout for the Democratic primary so I am hoping turnout will also be heavy in Nov.

[KingFlorez]

14. Lieberman is not a problem

He's already given his word and said he would vote for Reid.

[calico1]

16. He gave his word?

Oh, okay. That makes me feel much better. :eyes:

[Peace Patriot]

15. Can someone answer me this. How do these Dem votes in Congress that

occurred recenty, favoring the torture and suspension of habeas corppus bill, stack up in terms of their forming a Bush majority with Bush's Republican "pod people"? I'm really worried about this, that what we'll be stuck with is a situation in which the real representatives of the American people still don't have a majority in Congress, even if the Dems technically take over as the majority in either house.

I realize that it will have a mighty effect on committees, AND that those (what I call Bushite) Democrats will be under great pressure from leaders to get certain things done, and stick with the majority. It will be a much different situation for them than being under Hastert & brethren.

I do not have the list of names on the vote. But it's a kind of litmus test for me. Worse thing I've ever seen a Congress do. And I'm now wondering who among them will be returning automatically, who is facing an election, what their prospects are, etc.

On the "big tent," I would agree if I felt that the American people were being fairly represented in Congress. The American people are, what, now 70% against the war? And were at 56% way back before the invasion (Feb. '03), with 63% opposed to torture "under any circumstances" (May '04), and other stats like that showing big disagreement between consistent majority opinion on many subjects, and what Congress/Bush have done.

So if someone is standing in the way of the American peoples' clear wishes, in THIS situation--badly inadequate representation (now, and for a long time)--I would not be so tolerant of aberrant rightwing views from Democrats.

[election_2004]

17. But seriously, what's Lieberman going to barter for...

That he'll be able to retain his committee seniority and become a Committee Chair? Fine, the Democratic leadership has already guaranteed him that.

If it's a 49-49-2 breakdown, what's Joementum going to do: ask to become Democratic Majority Leader?

[Zynx]

19. Good point.