(VA-Sen) WaPo: Webb down by 2

[AlecBGreen]

LINK

Allen 49
Webb 47

Virginia Sen. George Allen (R) and Democratic challenger James Webb are virtually tied in a race that could shift the balance of power in Washington and which reinforces the differences between Northern Virginia and the rest of the commonwealth, according to a new Washington Post poll.

Allen gets 49 percent, compared with 47 percent for Webb, within the 3 percentage point margin of error for the poll conducted over three days last week.

[marmar]

1. Come on Virginia, help us de-KKK the Senate...

Start with Allen. Work up to Trent Lott.

[Olney Blue]

2. We have GOT to beat Allen. What can we do?

[sofa king]

5. I think it's more what Allen can do--just keep him talking.

Ideally, it would be great to see Allen hand his car keys to Benny Lambert and tell him not to get fingerprints on the windows 'cause he just had the Ferrari detailed. But I suspect he'll come up with more gaffes all on his own.

[Olney Blue]

7. Well, that's true. It seems like he just keeps shooting himself in his

fake cowboy boot.

[sofa king]

9. Yep, and now the press is waiting for the next one.

Once you get a reputation for saying stupid things, the press zeroes in on that highly printable liability. So it's almost a guarantee that he'll be stepping in it regularly between now and then.

His only other real choice is to go George W. and stick entirely to scripted statements and events. That will tick the press off, too, because if he stops giving interviews, they'll go find someone else to talk to--someone who needs all the free publicity he can get.

[calimary]

11. Yeah, but you'd think at the rate he's been going, he'd be down by

20 by now.

WTF is wrong with Virginia? They're still okay with this guy???

[sofa king]

12. Islands of enlightenment in a sea of ignorance.

Here's an incomplete map I put together from Dave Leip's excellent election atlas showing how cities and counties within Virginia broke in 2004, with higher educational centers noted. (In Dave's maps, Democratic areas are red and Republican areas are blue.)



Those red (Democratic) areas are most often one of two things: high-population urban centers, or college towns, or both. In VA, small towns can be "cities" which are jurisdictionally distinct from the counties in which they exist, and in damned near every one of those tiny little red dots is a university of some sort.

As a result, the "smart" parts of Virginia show up brilliantly. It's amazing how important higher education is to the Democratic Party, especially in this state.

Other well educated areas are subsumed by the ignorance that surrounds them. For example, the biggest university in VA is Virginia Tech, but students aren't allowed to vote in Montgomery County and the rednecks outnumber the professors by a large margin. Still, even Montgomery shows up as a lighter blue, just below red Roanoke in SW VA.

That's the problem facing Virginia. As I have joked in the past, the only reason why Allen isn't running away with it completely is because many Virginians can't remember that there was a Washington Redskins coach before Joe Gibbs.

[sofa king]

13. Oh, one more thing.

Last year's election showed that the trogs are much less likely to come out in off-year elections, which I suspect is partly why Kaine got elected. There's no telling whether or not that will hold true this year as well, but we can hope.

[Eric J in MN]

10. Volunteer or donate.

http://www.webbforsenate.com/

[Marrak]

3. No more Macaca!

<>

[Ekirh]

4. Been trying to work on my family . .

But best I've got is "I hate both so I'll vote party" and one "I Just won't vote" which at least means one less vote Allen would've gotten . .

fricken Family.

[Parisle]

6. The poll sounds fishy to me,...

---- ...particularly in light of Tim Kaine's strong victory in Va's gubernatorial election last year. Even a "presidential visit" couldn't help the GOP then,... and the partisan dynamics which impacted that election seem to remain present. In fact,.... worse, from a GOP standpoint. Allen's self-destructing is an added wrinkle (though 10% of Virginians would vote for the candidate they thought WAS a racist) With three weeks to go, voters are NOT going to be "coming around" to Allen,... they will be abandoning him,... and "coming around" to Webb. It may be very close, but I'm still thinking that Webb will come out on top.

[spooky3]

8. Webb had no money for ads until very recently.

The DSCC finally started investing in his campaign after they saw the Macaca aftermath--very late in the campaign. Meanwhile Allen had all the benefits of incumbency and a $9 million campaign chest. It's a very difficult uphill climb. Kaine did not have to beat an incumbent, and was following a very successful Democratic governor. That's a big difference.

[underpants]

14. The Webb ads are all over the place now

they clearly saved their money for the end run. Lots of ads out now.

Allen is well WAS about to be Senator for life. The experts around here say this is all because of "macaca" but the Dems in Va. have done well recently and the W win by 8% in 2004? Bullshit no way. Sorry not buying it never will.

[spooky3]

15. ya, I am seeing a few of them up here in NoVA

but his campaign may be using a lot more advertising in other parts of the state since he can definitely count on NoVA--it will be blue and the turnout will be good, I think.

[Catchawave]

16. We have ourselves a HORSE RACE :)

I think Webb just needs to stick to issues as we go to the stretch :hi: