Top 25 House seats most likely to change parties: Incumbents In Trouble

[DeepModem Mom]

WP political blog, "The Fix," by Chris Cillizza
The House Line: Incumbents in Trouble

(NOTE: The #1 race is for the seat most likely to change parties.)

..... 4. Pennsylvania's 10th District: Democrat Chris Carney's media campaign in this race -- overseen by Shrum Devine Donilon firm alumnus Julian Mulvey -- has been pitch perfect. Rather than have Carney carry the message about incumbent Don Sherwood's extramarital affair and alleged abuse, Mulvey has used Republicans in the district to talk about how disappointed they are in the incumbent's conduct. In the post-Foley environment Sherwood's chances of victory are minimal. (Previous ranking: 7)

3. Indiana's 8th District: Rep. John Hostettler's campaign isn't showing any signs of life. Vanderburgh County Sheriff Brad Ellsworth (D) continues to hold a double-digit lead, and the question now seems to be when the National Republican Congressional Committee will decide to pull out. (Previous ranking: 6)

2. Colorado's 7th District: A recent Mason-Dixon poll showed former state Sen. Ed Perlmutter (D) with a 45 percent to 39 percent lead over Rick O'Donnell (R) -- a sign that the race is tightening. Still, Rep. Bob Beauprez (R) continues to trail badly in the governor's race, and Colorado voters seem to be turning bluer by the day. (Previous ranking: 2)

1. Arizona's 8th District: Ex state Sen. Gabrielle Giffords might as well begin measuring the drapes for her new office in Washington. National Republicans have conceded the race to her and have abandoned GOP candidate Randy Graf. (Previous ranking: 1)

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2006/10/the_house_line_incumbents_in_d.html#more

[Botany]

1. Yes!

5. Ohio's 15th District: Rep. Deborah Pryce (R) has said publicly that the Mark Foley
scandal is complicating her chances of beating Franklin County Commissioner
Mary Jo Kilroy (D). But, Republican insiders argue that Pryce was in a world of
trouble long before Foley resigned from the House. Pryce seemed to be caught
by surprise by the seriousness of Kilroy's challenge and has never found her
footing. (Previous ranking: 8)

[stevietheman]

2. KY-3 just became competitive as well

A poll was just released that shows the race Anne Northup (R) was to have locked up has become even, 48-48. John Yarmuth (D) has been engaging her negative campaign with effective, mostly positve ads and astuteness in their first debate. Yarmuth is coming across as the friendly guy next door while Northup comes across as mean. In Louisville, friendly tends to win over mean. Further, Yarmuth is a known quantity, having owned and written for the city's popular alternative weekly, LEO, and also having participated in two TV debate programs that ran a few years ago.

[DeepModem Mom]

3. Thanks for this info, stevie! nt