Top 10 Senate seats most likely to change party: Shift is toward Democrats

[DeepModem Mom]

WP political blog, "The Fix," by Chris Cillizza
The Line: Senate Landscape Shifts Toward Democrats

The Senate landscape continues to shift toward Democrats thanks to the surprising competitiveness of the Tennessee and Virginia races....

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(NOTE: The number-one race is the most likely to change parties. Races 10 through 5 are in Washington, Maryland, Virginia, Tennessee, New Jersey and Missouri.)

4. Rhode Island: Republicans breathed a major sigh of relief following Sen. Lincoln Chafee's (R) primary win last month, but polling suggests that the incumbent remains extremely imperiled this fall. A new Mason-Dixon survey put former state Attorney General Sheldon Whitehouse (D) ahead of Chafee by a single point -- echoing a Brown University poll last month. Whitehouse is working to make the argument that despite Chafee's professed independence from his party, he remains a vote for Republican leaders in the Senate. Chafee's last name remains political gold in the state, but the more partisan the national atmosphere grows, the more difficult it will be for Chafee to win. (Previous ranking: 4)

3. Ohio: It's all national security all the time in the race between incumbent Sen. Mike DeWine (R) and Rep. Sherrod Brown (D). DeWine is on television hitting Brown for voting against intelligence funding in the wake of Sept. 11, 2001; Brown hits back that DeWine manipulated footage of the terrorist attacks for political gain and is distorting his record on security matters. DeWine's focus on national security may be a late attempt to win back conservatives, a group that has grown alienated from the incumbent over the past few years. Even if he gets every Republican to support him, DeWine may still come up short. A recent Mason-Dixon poll showed Brown ahead of DeWine by two points but with a much larger 52 percent to 33 percent edge among independent voters. (Previous ranking: 3)

2. Montana: This race has been quiet in recent weeks as Sen. Conrad Burns (R) seeks to restart a campaign that was sidetracked by his penchant for inappropriate remarks. State Sen. Jon Tester (D) appears content to try to simply run out the clock, taking few risks under the belief that this race is his to lose. Because of the cheap cost of advertsing in the state, commercials are flooding the airwaves -- making it difficult for any one message to gain much traction, a fact that works in Tester's favor. A Mason-Dixon poll showed Tester up 47 percent to 40 percent, a sign this race is on life-support for the incumbent. (Previous ranking: 2)

1. Pennsylvania: Incumbent Sen. Rick Santorum's (R) new ad -- entitled "Bicker" -- is a good one. "If you want a Senator who goes along just to get along, Bob Casey's probably your guy, " Santorum says. "But if you're looking for someone to fight for Pennsylvania, you can count on me." Even Democrats admit the ad is effective but wonder privately why Santorum didn't start running it a month or more ago when the race was more winnable for him. A new Mason-Dixon survey shows the depth of Santorum's problems. He trails Casey 49 percent to 40 percent and just 31 percent view him favorably, compared to 43 percent who see him in an unfavorable light. If those numbers are right, Santorum can't win. (Previous ranking: 1)

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/

[Deep13]

1. It's up to the "show me state."

If Mighty MO can pull it off, and the rest go as predicted we will have a one-vote majority in the Senate.

Meanwhile, my wife and I are off to yet another fundraiser for Sherrod Brown.

[ashling]

2. If Ned can pull it off in Conn

we will get another one. OK, so its "technically" dem now, but ....