Real Clear Politics Now Projecting a 50/50 makeup in Senate

[Lasher]

Real Clear Politics is now predicting that Democrats will pick up net total of 5 Senate seats for a projected makeup of 50 for each party. Prior to the weekend RCP had shown a net pickup of only 3 or 4 seats for Democrats.

RCP uses a sampling of the latest surveys to develop and average, discounting polls that they consider questionable.

Here is a summary the current RCP averages:

Arizona: Kyle +9.0%

Connecticut: Lieberman +6.7%

Maryland: Cardin +5.3%

Michigan: Stabenow +13.2%

Minnesota: Klobuchar +13.0%

Missouri: McCaskill +1.3% *

Montana: Tester +5.6% *

New Jersey: Kean +1.2% *

Ohio: Brown +4.6% *

Pennsylvania: Casey +11.0% *

Rhode Island: Whitehouse +2.3% *

Tennessee: Ford +3.0% *

Virginia: Allen +4.0%

Washington: Cantwell +9.4%

* denotes a pickup and all others are retentions.

Election Predictions also projects a 50/50 Senate makeup, as well as a 219 to 216 Democratic majority in the House.

[Zynx]

1. The keys are NJ, TN, VA, and MO.

That's where the Senate will be decided. Arguably it will come down to VA and NJ. If we can hold NJ it gets much easier.

[TygrBright]

4. Well, if Sen. Macaca keeps gnawing his own ankle...

...there's still a chance we could pick up VA, I think. They're not as stupid as they sometimes look in rural VA. Maybe.

hopefully,
Bright

[bpj1962]

55. Southwestern Virginia

As a life long Virginian I hate to break it to you but they are really stupid down there. The key to Webb winning Virginia is going to be in Richmond, Northern Virginia, and the Tidewater/Hampton Roads area. Although Roanoke is in S.W. Virginia the population there has tended to vote democratic. There are a lot of transplanted people from Conn, NJ NY living in the Smith Mountain Lake area. The demographics of Va are changing but have they changed enough to tip the scales. I truly hope so because I cannot stand another 6 years of Felix.

[demnan]

2. Come on, Virginia

Don't let the nation say you wanted a racist for Senator!

[Lasher]

9. We were never supposed to have a chance in Virginia

But look at where we are now! This is one of the most exciting Senate races. Webb has the monentum but I don't know if that's going to be enough.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2006/senate/va/virginia_senate_race-14.html#polls

Virginia has been pretty red in the past, although it seems to be trending more blue lately. And Allen has $6.6M COH compared to Webb's $0.4M. This still looks like an uphill battle, but a win by Webb is certainly possible.

[DirtyJersey]

44. True...

But the GOP was never supposed to have a chance in New Jersey, so it's a wash in my book. Based on this prediction, we need one of thos two to win. If it's any condolence, both states elected Dem governor's last year.

[Lasher]

46. Good call. Either one would give us a majority.

New Jersey might be our best hope in that respect. It's the closest of all listed races, and I'm told that incumbents usually have an advantage in the home stretch. But hey, I'm hoping for both.

Funny thing about Virginia's Democratic governor: I have a friend who lives in Williamsburg who says he would never vote for a Democrat, no matter what. I had a boatload of fun teasing him just after that election about his fine new governor.

[Ignacio Upton]

59. Corzine fucked things up in NJ

By appointing someone who had reports of baggage surrounding him (even though, it's not ture, there were warnings months before the appointment that Menendez would bring up problems.) Had Corzine appointed someone like Rush Holt, then we wouldn't be in this mess with Kean Jr.
On the other hand, Allen's problems are also self-inflicted. "Macaca" has not helped him.

[LibDemAlways]

17. It's depressing to think that a majority of the

voters in Virginia are willing to return a racist to the Senate. I hope more of the truth about Allen surfaces in the next month - though I don't know what more it will take to convince non-racist voters that this guy has sheets in his closet.

[proud2BlibKansan]

24. Wow does Allen really have a chance?

I had assumed that race wasn't even close. How can anyone still support him??

[patricia92243]

3. So, what would happen? Who is majority, and who is minority? Who would b

break a tie vote? If it is Hassart- the way it is now - that means that it is still Republican.

That is not counting the DINO - of which there a LOT. So, essentially the Republicans could still pass any legislation they want to - and have the Democrats as a real whipping boy.

If Lieberman will lose - as he should - that will really help us. If not, Democrats that voted for him will not have anybody but themselves to blame when everything is a mess.

[trof]

5. Cheney would be tie-breaker.

As president of senate.

[allisonthegreat]

79. I don't like the idea of that...n/t

[Lasher]

7. The Vice President would cast a tie-breaking vote.

This is the case with every tie vote in the Senate. You can count on a strict party line vote to determine who will be the majority party. So 50/50 ain't enough, we need 51 seats.

Although there are some reasonable people who are skeptical, most think it's a safe assumption that Lieberman and Osborn would both caucus with Democrats. Independents are therefore included in the Democratic totals. If you grant that assumption, a Connecticut win for Lamont would be an important moral victory but not highly significant in the overall battle for control of the Senate.

[Recursion]

6. But look at what power a 50-50 split gives Joedas

Assuming Lieberman wins, and the Senate goes 50-50, he can essentially name his price to caucus with either party for leadership purposes.

Listen up Virginia: if we don't beat Allen, Joe Lieberman will get to set the direction of the Democratic party in Congress for the next 2 years...

[wyldwolf]

16. a 50/50 split, or a slight edge for either party...

...makes the centrists of both parties the power brokers.

[Spiffarino]

8. Remember: RCP is VERY right wing

If RCP says it, the Repubs must be scared shitless. I anticipate good things coming from non-partisan pollsters.

Now let's get out there and kick their asses into the dirt.

[Demeter]

12. Exactl;y!

This retribution has been long in process, and I'm so glad it won't take another generation to come to fruition. The GOP has blighted my adult life, from Nixon on.

[fuzzyball]

61. Regardless of "wing", RCP has the best summary of political news

I know of, so I visit it often. But I ignore their editorials
which are overtly right wing.

[Lasher]

69. Amen to the editorial bias.

I stopped reading them too.

[cnlst8]

10. New Mason Dixon Polls in All Contested States!

link:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15046834/

In summary:

PA - Casey 49%, Santorum 40%, undecided 10%

RI - Whitehouse 42%, Chafee 41%, undecided 17%

VA - Webb 43%, Allen 43%, undecided 12%

MO - McCaskill 43% , Talent 43%, undecided 13%

NJ - Kean 44%, Menendez 41%, undecided 13%

WA - Cantwell 50%, McGavik 40%, undecided 9%

MD - Cardin 47% Steele 41%, undecided 12%

OH - Brown 45%, DeWine 43%, undecided 10%

MT - Tester 47%, Burns 40%, undecided 10%

TN - Ford 43%, Corker 42%, undecided 14%

In Rasmussen poll: Oct 1.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tennessee_United_States_Senate_election%2C_2006
TN - Ford 48% Corker 43%

can't post threads yet

[Demeter]

13. Lots of Indecision There

Need to have the GOP mess up a little more, economy disintegrate further, and Iraq will do the rest!

[Lasher]

22. I don't think reaction to the Mark Foley scandal is reflected in polls yet

This has to work against the GOP in a tangible way. The story's all over the corporate news media. I can't wait to see the next round of polls.

Edit: typo

[Imagevision]

48. I agree, since friday we've come to Gonzo stepping in Pelosi on fire

Hastert, "Boner", Reynold's being scrutinized because it seems they were involved in the cover-up, -- The more about the cover-up the worse it will get because this is pretty bad news against repugs.

[Lasher]

77. That's quite a visual there.

"Gonzo stepping in Pelosi on fire", heh heh. That would make a great political cartoon. :rofl:

[fuzzyball]

62. Sadly 80% of voters would not be able to know who Foley is or what

position he held or what state he is from. The elections
are not intellectual or informed exercises. It is mostly
lifelong reubs or lifelong dems who vote like they do since
they always have.

The only critical factor in any election is TURNOUT. Whichever
side is more energized has the better chance of wins.

[Lasher]

70. I don't know, fuzzyball, this Foley scandal has legs

And it's all over the news. I get what you're saying about the average voter's interest, but this thing is kind of like a Survivor episode or the latest revealation in the Michael Jackson saga. The masses pay attention to things like that.

[fuzzyball]

81. Here is my take on the Foley Fiasco

It has some potential to de-energize fundie voters.
It has zero potential to energize democratic base.

So all in all it is a net minus for the repubs. It all
boils down to turnout.

[Lost-in-FL]

56. While some see "Undecided" voters as an opportunity

I believe that is a damn shame that at this time in American politics there are STILL undecided voters. Something is wrong with that poll :tinfoilhat: . I believe someone is having a little fun with the polls and trying influencing people votes.

[Lochloosa]

34. Welcome to DU cnlst8

Keep posting....you will be able to post threads quicker than you think.

:toast:

[NMDemDist2]

57. welcome to DU cnlst8!!

:hi:

[IronLionZion]

11. We have a fighting chance in NJ and VA

Why settle for half when we can take and outright majority fair and square. This may be our only chance to take some of these conservative states like Virginia. It's important to nip the racist from Southern California in the bud before he makes it all the way to the white house.

Don't worry, in PA we will destroy Virginia's third senator (santorum) and hopefully send him to prison too.

[19jet54]

14. Good, but not great

The tie breaking vote is the president of the senate; VP Cheney would make it 51/50...

[efhmc]

15. Will Lieeeberman be a Democrat? Also, does he have to win. Is there

no way to close that gap. Pleeese Connecticut don't let him win.

[AllyCat]

18. Dem? No way. And neither will Ford and Stabenow

Remember, these two voted to sell our democracy to GWB*

I doubt they can be relied on to vote like actual Democrats.

This is hardly a 50/50 split. Based on the actions of these two and others in the Senate, it will still be Republican controlled.

[Demeter]

37. In All Fairness, Stabenow Has a Tough Row To Hoe

There's a lot of ignorant jackasses (or should I say elephants?) in Michigan. Debbie probably figured that since it was hopeless to defeat the GOP, she would vote to prevent them from battering her with it.

I wasn't happy about it, but I can understand the desire to blunt the morons until they are outnumbered, and then really clean house.

[Lasher]

19. Lieberman (I) and Osborn (I) would both caucus with Democrats.

Although there are some who are anxious that Lieberman might defect to the dark side, the most likely scenario by far is that he would not. For this reason, as I mentioned upthread, Independents are sometimes included in the Democratic totals when projecting the November outcome.

[rpannier]

65. I'm not convinced

I think with all the money and support he's gotten from the pukes he'll be their new best friend. And he'll blame the Democrats for it.

[Lasher]

68. Like I said, this is a point that can't be ruled out

But it just isn't likely that Lieberman would caucus with repukes. For one thing, he's promised CT voters that he would not, and that's a pretty blue state. If he broke that promise he wouldn't be able to get elected to dog catcher after that.

But Lamont seems to be closing the gap and is within striking distance. Let's hope he wins, which would make this discussion academic.

[hfojvt]

21. that is the worst part

If Lieberman wins he will caucus with the Republicans and it will be 51-49. Actually I would rather that he caucus with the Republicans because it would blunt his whole message - "it's too bad other Democrats can't support our lying President like I do instead of trying to take a stand for the American people."

[Lasher]

20. Hey, I made the front page for the very first time!!

My life now has meaning! :headbang:

Lasher

[No DUplicitous DUpe]

35. Way To Go!

Congrats!

[lonestarnot]

23. Woohooo!

:woohoo: but I want a take over not a 50 50

[Lasher]

29. Me too, lonestarnot. This is a step closer to 51!

And please note, a Democratic majority is now being projected in the House.

[lonestarnot]

31. Go look at the greatest page on the Puts! Yikes October surprise

coming and not from us!

[Lasher]

38. Wow, thanks for the heads-up!

I've been watching for more indications that another recession is looming. Check out these threads:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=2774348

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=2842931

[lonestarnot]

63. Thanks Lasher!

[kay1864]

25. Sadly, 50/50 is not quite good enough

With 50/50, the Pukes keep control of the committees, and of the legislation that reaches the floor.

As I posted last week, here are the tossup races (as of today):
Missouri
NJ
Rhode Island
Tenn

Leaning Dem:
Maryland
Montana
Ohio

Leaning Puke:
Virginia

To get 51 seats (and true control of the Senate), we have to win the three "leaning Dem" states, and ALL FOUR of the tossup states. (edited to add: Unless we win Virginia, of course)

Do YOU live in one of the states above?
If so, what are YOU doing to help?

Fight! Fight! Fight!

[DuaneBidoux]

52. Not totally true. There are enough Republica Senators who arent wingnuts

that we could still stop a lot more radical legislation than before, even with Cheney throwing the 50/50 tiebreak lever.

[kay1864]

54. True, we'd definitely have more leverage

And could win a couple of moderate Repuglicans on key votes.

But they would still chair the committees, and control the agenda.

51, the magic number. Fight! Fight! Fight!

[Armstead]

26. Don;t forget Vermont

If Bernie Sanders wins in Vermont, it will not be a numerical change. TRading one Independent for another.

But with Bernie on board, the Democrats have a staunch ally. More importantly, the PEOPLE will have a staunch ally. So Bernie will both help the Democrats assert more power -- and Bernie will also add pressure to keep the Democrats honest.

[Lasher]

32. RCP doesn't consider that one competitive.

That's why they didn't include it in their projections.

I believe the last Vermont Senate poll was conducted 9/18 to 9/19 by Research 2000, who gave Sanders (I) 58% and Tarrant (R) 33%. Looks like a safe retention to me. :thumbsup:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vermont_United_States_Senate_election%2C_2006#Polling

[civildisoBDence]

58. Doesn't Sanders change the math?

As in, 49 Dem, 50 Rep, 1 Indie?

either way, I'd just like to tell Dick Cheney, "Go fuck yourself."

Newsprism

[Lasher]

72. Heh heh. Remember that guy from New Orleans who did exactly that?

Arguably, Sanders and Lieberman would both caucus with Democrats and are being counted as part of our 50 projected seats.

[DFW]

27. I'm surprised to see McCaskill

...already on the pickup side..thrilled, but not quite as optimistic.
On the other hand, I would not yet count out a come-from-behind
win in NJ or Virginia--especially Virginia. I also find a win prediction
in Tennessee premature---I'd love it, but not yet ready to pop out the
champagne. Maybe if there was suddenly a mandatory death sentence for committing
electoral fraud, but as this is not yet the case, I think it's still an uphill
battle for the Senate.

[kay1864]

28. That's not a pickup, really

1.2% is statistically insignificant. It's actually a tossup with that kind of "edge".

[Lasher]

40. RCP lists this and other Senate races as tossups.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/latestpolls/

But in order to make their best forecast of the new Senate makeup they called each race one way or the other. This was a guess. It sounds better to call it a forecast or projection but it's pretty much the same thing.

[kay1864]

43. True dat.

But in your OP you have Missouri with an asterisk, denoting a pickup.

[Lasher]

45. Right. the RCP average shows she's ahead of the incumbent, Talent.

Am I missing something here? 'Too close to call' is not an option in this context. Otherwise at least 7 of these races would be in that category and I don't think that would be very interesting.

[kay1864]

47. Actually, right now it *is* too close to call.

You have in your OP:
Missouri: McCaskill +1.3% *

Statistically, that's not "ahead". It's well within the margin of error, so statistically that's a tie. A tossup, not a pickup.

Missouri is one of the four we need to win. IMHO, we certainly do not need to be calling it a pickup. We need every Dem vote we can get in those four states. And in the three "leaning Dem" states.

Unless maybe I'm misreading your use of the term "pickup".

[Lasher]

49. OK if that works you you then I'm happy.

My definition of a pickup in this case is based on this: If the election were held today and if the vote results exactly matched the RCP averages - ignoring MOEs and all other factors - who would win?

I don't think it does any harm to call Missouri a pickup in this scenario, since I have been up front by providing the percentages for all to see and links to more information. That way anyone can interpret these margins as they see fit. As I said, 'too close to call' is not an option in this context.

Surely you must realize that if I reported a 1.3% lead for McCaskill and did not include her in the projected winners' circle, there are those who would have taken great exception. But if you want to apply different principles that's cool with me, I get your point.

It's interesting to note that you could apply a 'too close to call' category to the RCP numbers and still come up with a +5 Democratic gain. This is because New Jersey is even closer than Missouri and you would have to throw that one out too. But then I guess you might need to throw out some other of the races, depending on the statistically significant rule of thumb you choose to employ.

[kay1864]

51. Well that's just it...

You *can't* ignore MOE. The results above do not mean that McCaskill is ahead by 1.2% She simply isn't. It's "1.2%, plus or minus 3%". So she could actually be behind. She's not "ahead by 1.2%". That's a false sense of accuracy that just doesn't exist.

And I'm not "choosing to employ" anything. It simply *is*. That's the way statistics works. That's the way the polls you're quoting work. A 1.2% "lead" in these kind of polls automatically translates as "too close to call". By any rule of thumb.

But I'm not "throwing out" any races. Some are leaning Dem, some are leaning Repuke, and some are too close to call. And we need to win all of the close ones.

[Lasher]

71. I can ignore MOE all I want. LARRY and CURLY too.

What if I said, "Hey, did you see the latest poll in the Virginia Senate race? It's a tie now." Are you going to tell me I can't say that? Because if if you are you've got a lot of preaching to do and you won't get many converts. It's like telling people they can't guess who's going to win in the Superbowl because statistics will not support a conclusion.

I respect the science of statistical analysis but reserve the right to resort to my tea leaves and chicken bones any time I wish.

[AX10]

30. That's the most likely outcome.

[IWantAChange]

33. Can Virginia be that out of touch??

Racism, Confederate flags, the N-bomb, nothing can make these American voters change their minds about Allen? What a sad commentary about some of our fellow citizens.

[daveskilt]

67. In the South those are reasons FOR voting for macaca

[Lasher]

78. Sadly, this is true to say but not of everyone.

After all we have been through in the last 50 years, I'm sorry to say that racial bigotry still exists. And the South doesn't have a monopoly on it. It's not as prevalent as before, but it's still there - and most likely always will be to one degree or another. I guess we just do the best we can.

[daveskilt]

80. Im not from the US but lived all over the US

I've lived in Georgia, Utah, California, and Illinois and worked for extended periods in Texas, Idaho, Colorado, North Carolina, South Carolina, Alabama, Kansas, Washington, Oregon, New York, Connecticut, and Pennsylvania.

Now that about covers all areas of the US. I have no regional bias as an outsider and I have to say while they all have some regional wierdness (Utah esp) the most racist bigoted ass backwards people are overwhelmingly in the South. BUT the kindest and most accepting and friendly people I met in the US over the last 14 years were also in the South.

there is still hope if the GOP stranglehold on a perception that they are (laughably) the only "moral" party then the south has enough reasonable folks who could vote dem.

[Mz Pip]

36. Not good enough

No tie breakers. I'm really pushing for Webb here. Next to Sanscrotum, Allen has to go.

Mz Pip
:dem:

[woodsgirl]

39. Olympia Snowe

has come down from about 70% approval in March, according to a
Maine internal poll, to 53%. Her democratic opponent isn't
getting one penny from the democrats because she doesn't have
enough money/isn't corporate enough. I can't understand this
way of thinking. Her opponent Jean Hay Bright is an organic
farmer and believes in unions and a fair wage.

[Mz Pip]

41. Is her approval rating

tied to conservative support? She always struck me as being one of the more moderate Republicans. With the Right Wing trying to purge the GOP of moderates I wonder if that's where she's losing support. I'll admit I don't know much about Maine politics but Snowe always struck me as one of those Chamber of Commerce type, socially moderate Republicans that doesn't want to make you :puke: every time she opens her mouth.

Mz Pip
:dem:

[Lasher]

42. Got a link for that, woodsgirl?

The latest Maine poll I can find is one done by Rasmussen on August 17. It gave Snowe 68% and Bright 20%.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/August%202006/MaineSenate.htm

[DFLer4edu]

50. We're forgeting they count Lieberman as a democrat

[Lasher]

73. Didn't forget. He and Sanders would most likely be with us. (EOM)

[DainBramaged]

53. NJ WILL NOT ELECT kEAN, MARK MY WORDS.

Our Latin friends will put him over the top, and the rest of us will not believe some lifer looking to cut a deal.

FUCK THE PUKES, we will prevail.

[MrBlueSky]

60. How???

In April Karl Rove predicted that the Dems will not take a majority of either house of Cogress. Last month, he predicted an "October Surprise."

We have not yet seen this criminal mastermind's surprise.

Catching Osama? A new 9/11 attack?

I don't know... but I am sure not predicting any Balance of Power turnovers until we know what his October Surprise is... and whether the public will believe it.

Since 2001, his October Surprises are 100% effective...

I hate to be a pessimist... but I know that this madman is still on the loose!

[Lasher]

75. You forgot to mention Diebold.

Gosh, I don't know why we even try.

[rpannier]

64. It's not 50-50 if LIEberman wins

It's 51-49 pukie

[Lasher]

74. Well, to be more specific it would be 50 (R), 48 (D), and 2 (I)

I understand the concern that Lieberman might cross over but that is not likely. For this reason it is not uncommon to see the Independents lumped together with the Democratic numbers.

[TheDonkey]

66. Good, but hopefully VA or NJ will tip our way to secure a majority

50/50 won't help with Cheney.

[Lasher]

76. Election Predictions is now saying that NJ will go our way.

Other than that nothing is different from the RCP projection.