US Senate predictions of Chris Bowers

[Eric J in MN]

From
http://www.mydd.com/story/2006/8/21/174847/673

Overall: Republicans currently control the Senate 55-43-2. Democrats need at least a net total of six seats in order to take control. One incoming Independent, Bernie Sanders (I-VT), has indicated he will caucus with the Democrats. One Independent in a dogfight, Joe Lieberman (CfL-CT), currently indicates that he will caucus with Democrats.

Thirty-second forecast, August 21: I currently project Republicans to hold the Senate, 51-48-1, with Democratic pickups in Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Montana and Connecticut. Dick Cheney will be the tie-breaking vote. I do not project any Republican pickups at this time

...Toss-ups
3. Ohio. (Democrat: Sherrod Bown). I agonized over whether to put this race in the "lean Democratic" category, but I just couldn't quite do it yet. While Sherrod Brown now leads in all polls, while DeWine's approval rating is under 50%, and while Ohio is ripe for Democrats this year, Brown just does not lead by enough in the reliable polls, is still over $2M behind in cash on hand, and DeWine's negative approval is too new a phenomenon. I just cannot be an honest election forecaster and say Brown has a clear edge here--yet. But this race is close to moving up a category.
Money race: Open secrets on the campaign
Latest polls: Rasmussen (R), July 27, Brown 44%, (Columbus Dispatch, July 20 DeWine 42%; Brown 45%, DeWine 37%; Survey USA, June 13, Brown 48%, DeWine 39%.

4. Montana: (Democrat: Jon Tester). This is a tight race. Tester is rising on people-power, and Burns is faltering in front of the media's eyes. However, Burns maintains a significant fundraising advantage, and the polls are tight. Trends are clearly toward Tester, but money and the conservative nature of Montana keep this race in the toss-up category.
Money race: Open secrets on the campaign
Latest Polls: Rasmussen (R), August 8: Tester 47%, Burns 47%; Lake Research Partners (D), June 26: Tester 43%, Burns 42%

5. Missouri: (Democrat: Claire McCaskill). This race has been deadlocked for some time, and there are no signs of that breaking. McCaskill is slightly ahead in the polls and somewhat noticeably ahead in favorable ratings, but Talent has gobs and gobs of cash. I expect this race to go down to the wire.
Money race: Open Secrets on the campaign
Latest Polls: Survey USA, August 14: McCaskill 47%, Talent 46%; Rasmussen (R), August 15: Talent 46%, McCaskill 44%, Talent 42%; Research 2000, June 22: McCaskill 49%, Talent 43%

[buff2]

1. How can any of these races be close

considering the shape this country is in due to the disastrous policies of the republican controlled Congress,Senate,AND the White House and people sick of high gas prices.....why would any SANE person want to continue this awful way of living? Wars,wars and more wars,spending billions of $$$$$$ a month in Iraq while everything here turns to shit and NO GOOD FUTURE for our children and grandchildren to look forward to.....WHY VOTE REPUBLICAN? What possible good could it be to keep them in power while so many people are suffering? Khrist,nothing makes any sense anymore. NOTHING. :argh:

[yellowcanine]

3. The fact that they ARE close at this time is a plus for Dems. These

should be safe Repub seats. Unseating incumbent senators is not easy and all of these states went for Bush in 04. The fact that these seats are close at this time means they very likely will go Dem if the Dems can successfully "nationalize" the election and a Dem "wave" develops.

[Joe Bacon]

4. D-I-E-B-O-L-D

That's the reason they're close.

[yellowcanine]

5. These are close based on current polls. Diebold doesn't do polling.

Let's not let our paranoia run away from us here.

[Stinky The Clown]

7. Did they poll Diebold for this latest ranking??

[enid602]

2. fraud

Well, at least the Republicans will know where to concentrate their vote fraud efforts.

[Doctor_J]

6. A microcosm of the horrendous state of our democracy -

in every case Dems have the issues and better candidates, Repukes have more money. Where went our once-great country?