New Strategic Vision Polls in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, New Jersey

[Awsi Dooger]

Three newly released polls: http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/results.htm

Not great in these polls. Leads, but nothing trending upward. The basics:

* Third straight poll that puts Casey's lead over Santorum at 6 points, this time 47-41. That's with the Green candidate in the race. Casey leads 48-41 minus Romanelli. Santorum somehow has a positive approval rating in this poll, 47-45. I've heard his summer ads have been focused along those lines, boosting his favorable numbers.

* Rendell's lead over Swann in the Pennsylvania gov race is 51-41 according to Strategic Vision, lower than other polls.

* Menendez leads Kean 42-40 in New Jersey, with a huge number of undecideds, 18%. That looks to be our most vulnerable Democratic-held senate seat.

* Jim Doyle leads Mark Green 45-44 in the Wisconsin gov race, with Doyle's approval rating a troubling 38-50.

Bush receives a horrid approval rating in terms of the economy and Iraq. He's in the 20s in each of these states regarding the economy. On terrorism he's got a plus approval rating in Pennsylvania and New Jersey but negative by 7% in Wisconsin. The overall approval rating is 32% in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, and 37% in New Jersey.

The number that continues to amaze me is, "Do you expect another terrorist attack in the United States in the next six months?" The 'yes' is now 78-82% in these three states, with 'no' at 8% or less. The people who were saying 'yes' to this by roughly 75% in the Strategic Vision polls back in March and April aren't looking too good as fearful prognosticators, only a month or two remaining.

[welshTerrier2]

1. just be careful with Strategic Vision polls

they're a republican polling company ... it doesn't mean the numbers aren't right but they just might have a different agenda than other polling companies ...

[bluestateguy]

2. Good news

Strategic Vision is Republican polling company, so you can bump up/down all of those numbers a few points in favor of the Democrats.

[snowbear]

3. I agree with the others.. you're quoting from a ReTHUG pollster

And you know who they tend to favor..

[Awsi Dooger]

6. No, I didn't realize that until a few minutes ago

I have all the major polling companies bookmarked and check them occasionally.

Rasmussen is always condemned as right leaning and lately people around here don't like Mason-Dixon. Frankly, I think Mason-Dixon is the best firm out there, in terms of state polls.

Strategic Vision doesn't include the crosstabs but the questions are unique and often interesting. For instance, they'll ask approval numbers of politicians who aren't even in the ballot this year, like Specter in PA or Corzine in NJ, from these new polls today.

[welshTerrier2]

8. check out the Strategic Vision client list

Brownback and the republicans are listed way up high ... it's on their website ...

[Awsi Dooger]

9. OK, I see that

I have their political link bookmarked, which takes you directly to the list of polls. I never looked at the corporate info previously.

[welshTerrier2]

10. it's still a good idea to monitor their stuff

just be a little extra cautious interpreting the data ...

[Awsi Dooger]

11. What about American Research Group?

Do they tilt one way or another?

I liked their polls in 2004 since the partisan weighting by state seemed to be logical, but they didn't have a particularly good year.

This year I check their site but nothing ever shows up, other than Vermont a few weeks ago.

[welshTerrier2]

12. dunno ...

yeah, i remember their stuff back in 2004 ... can't comment though ...

[Awsi Dooger]

4. I like the variety of questions they ask

That terrorist strike question isn't something I've been anywhere else.

I didn't realize it was a Republican firm but I just Googled after the first two comments mentioned that. Sure enough, it's an Atlanta-based Republican polling and consulting firm.

Well, maybe they are neutral in polling the Republican-only preference polls that always appear at the end of their samples. State after state Guiliani has a massive lead. It's double digits in all three of these states over McCain, including a 20 point lead in Pennsylvania. Only if favorite son Tommy Thompson is included in Wisconsin does Guiliani's lead dip below 10%, but he still leads Thompson by 6%. I took 10/1 on Guiliani winning the Republican nomination a few weeks ago and I'm convinced it's a great bet. We're discounting Hillary's edge in the polls since we think our primary voters will reject her. The GOP primary voters may not toss Guiliani on issues, if they think he's by far their best chance to win the general election.

[snowbear]

5. Two minutes in the penalty box for you Awsi!

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(j/k)

[Awsi Dooger]

7. Hey, I wish it were hockey season

I'd agree to a 5 minute major.

I'm sure the weather is temperate and wonderful where you are in Alaska, but here in desert hell we're supposed to be thankful it's only 102.

[snowbear]

13. Awsi...

Have you ever been to a Las Vegas Wranglers game?

(you know... the team my Alaska Aces beat? )

Oh and to keep the post on topic.. anyone still have the article that rated all the national polling agencies?

I'm going to try and locate that *^%#$@ thing.. it was interesting to see who leaned left, right, or was truly non-partisan.

[Awsi Dooger]

14. One lonely game

Yeah, I made one game last year, larissa. That always seems to be my number among the lesser pro leagues around here.

We had a CFL team in the mid '90s and I went to one game when we played Calgary and Flutie. There's an arena football team and I attended one game against San Jose last year. For the hockey game my friends and I were so drunk and wobbly I can't even remember the opponent. :dunce:

Aces? Are you sure that isn't team tennis? That's another league I saw once, last summer in Albany.

[Awsi Dooger]

15. Better new poll for Doyle in Wisconsin

This one with a 10 point lead, 48-38:

http://www.jsonline.com/watch/?watch=22&date=8/17/2006&id=10147

[radfringe]

16. terror attack in next 6 months?

I'll climb out on a limb here...

-- GOP numbers are not good and it's fairly obvious they are in trouble.
-- We had a "terror alert" on the heels of the Lamont beating Lieberman
-- This latest "terror alert" appears to have done little to nothing in boosting bush/GOPer poll numbers, unlike previous terror alerts which showed gains in approval/support

We've pretty much accepted the idea there is a connection between polling numbers and terror alerts. The lower the numbers the more likely there will be a terror alert. However, the effectivness of using terror to boost numbers has waned significantly.

My prediction: There will be an actual attack between now and mid-October. Most likely 2nd/3rd week in October. The attack, most likely, won't be on US soil (how could GOPers claim we are safer with them if an attack occurs on US soil?) - but it will happen close to home...

Why the 2nd-3rd week in October? It gives GOPers 3-4 weeks of airtime to spin it as DEMS won't keep you safe, and not enough time for DEMS to offer an effective counter-spin