Why Dean won't win Washington's caucuses

[maxr4clark]

I live in Washington state, which has two Democrats in the Senate because Senators are voted for statewide, and the state by population is Democratic. But there are substantial differences between one legislative district and another; so much so that almost half of the state's Representatives in the House are Republicans.

Howard Dean has been winning polls here in Washington for some time. He will not, however, win the caucus coming up this Saturday, because his support is limited to some very specific places in Washington, in the larger cities in the western half of the state, including my caucus precinct. I am sure that Dean will draw many caucus goers to those precincts in which his suppport is strong; however, those precincts only get a number of delegates to the statewide caucus that reflect how many people voted in that precinct in 2000. Thus, Dean's strong poll numbers are an overestimate of the result he will get in the caucus.

I don't mean to detract from Dean; Dean and Clark both opposed the Iraq War from the very beginning, and that is the most important of several important issues for me. Dean has run an exciting campaign that has been good for the entire Democratic party. Dean's support just doesn't match up well with the caucus format here in Washington.

Wes Clark has also polled well in Washington state, and unlike Dean, his support is geographically widespread throughout this Western state, as it was in Oklahoma, Arizona, and New Mexico. I also think Kerry will do well here, although I haven't seen any support for him either in polls or on the street; he is the front-runner, and the general feeling here seems to be ABB. I think a lot of the caucus-goers will be deciding who to vote for at the caucus, and a lot of them will end up supporting ABB in the form of Kerry. Governor Locke has endorsed Kerry, as well. The Seattle Times, which supported Bush in 2000, chose to endorse Lieberman at the end of January--much to everyone's amazement.

My prediction is that, as far as delegates to the state caucus go, Clark and Kerry will be the top two in Washington at around 30-35%, with Dean close behind at 25% and Kucinich at about 5%.

[maxr4clark]

1. kick

[OKNancy]

2. Trying to predict Washington (State) is like predicting

the weather....it changes.
I love Clark, but I think Dean looks really strong in Washington.
I hope they come in 1st and 2nd.

[maxr4clark]

8. On the contrary, it is very easy to predict the weather here in Seattle.

Expect a little bit of everything every day, except in July and August. Always wear layers. In July and August, expect decent weather and be overjoyed when it is better than decent, which it often is.

[sandnsea]

9. Partly cloudy with a chance of rain

That's the weather forecast on the Oregon Coast. From today until the end of time, unless global warming does us in.

[progressivebydesign]

10. I'm in Gig Harbor. Lots of Dean people...

I have seen a bit of Kerry stickers, but mostly Dean out this way. Or nothing at all. Further west into the Olympic Peninsula, you see Kucinich. Clark is bigger towards Bremerton, which is very military and blue collar. I have seen a total of TWO Bush/Cheney stickers in all my travels lately. The caucus is an interesting thing to me. I'd much rather have a straight vote. It's much more decisive.

Weather-wise? It's my first year here. Since October, I've been waiting for the non-stop rain and gloom I was warned about. October was insanse, the rain was torrential for a few days. But there were lots of pretty, sunny days. Then November, some nice sunny and partly sunny days, interspersed with rainy days. December? Cold, but some sun, and some rain. Then.. the snow! January, again, some suny, some partly sun, some rain. I keep waiting for the day it starts to rain and doesn't stop till April. I'm waiting for the mold to grow on my house.. as I was warned about. I actually love the weather here. It changes second to second. Like the polls...

[YouMustBeKiddingMe]

3. Let's stop rubbing it in for Dean supporters, shall we?

I have not seen any poll numbers for Washington, but if you say Dean is winning in the polls for some time now then this post is just nonsense and senseless needling.

Stop it.

[maxr4clark]

5. I live in Washington, and I think it is natural to want to predict

the result a few days in advance. The press here has said that this is a stronghold for Dean, and I see Dean signs in my neighbor's houses. Dean has a lot of support here.

The national press has been calling Washington a make-or-break for Dean, and I think that isn't fair to him. Dean would do better here in Washington if we had a primary, which is much more like a poll, rather than a caucus, which is not. Wisconsin is IMO a lot like Washington, except they have a primary rather than a caucus, and more delegates at stake. Wisconsin is a better state for Dean to consider make-or-break.

My post is not nonsense or senseless needling, it is an analysis of caucuses versus primaries, specifically in my home state. Urban caucus precincts have more voters per delegate in them than rural ones do, and also tend to have more politically active people as well. Thus the number of people attending a caucus in the urban precincts, in my opinion, may be two to five times as many per delegate as the number per delegate in the rural precincts.

Support for Dean and Kucinich is disproportionately stronger in urban areas than in rural areas. I don't think Edwards has much support here, and he has not campaigned here. Clark has support here despite never having campaigned here, fewer people I think than Dean, but it appears to be pretty evenly distributed across the state, not bunched in the urban areas. Kerry has just started campaigning here, and is likely to get the sheeple vote whether he campaigns or not.

[elias49]

11. Dean's support...

"Support for Dean and Kucinich is disproportionately stronger in urban areas than in rural areas."

By this I assume you mean in the state of Washington, and not as a general rule. Because in NH, Dean's strength was rural. Witness the numbers that went to Kerry...largely the bigger cities near the Mass border; effectively part of the Boston megalopolis. It was Dean who got support - strong support - from the smaller, less affluent communities.

[WI_DEM]

4. my theory is this

Seattle is a Dean stronghold and so is Vancouver and Olympia. They have the highest concentration of Democrats as well. The other areas where Clark is stronger like Spokane and Tacoma have less democrats. I will not predict who wins it but I think Dean can do well. Personally I hope Dean comes in first with Clark second. Kerry has just really come into Washington so he doesn't have the organziation that Dean and Clark have.

[maxr4clark]

7. Kerry has the endorsement

of a number of the top Democrats in the state including the Governor and several of the Democratic Representatives, who provide him with organization. I haven't seen televised ads from any of the campaigns here, but I tend to watch cable stations, not network TV.

I don't think the caucus precincts represent the Democratic population very exactly; there has been a lot of growth here in Seattle in the past four years, and the precinct map is based on the 2000 vote. I definitely think there will be fewer people per delegate at the rural caucus precincts than at the urban ones, which means the candidates that appeal to the rural voters will get more delegates than they would if this were a primary.

[CalebHayes]

6. My mom will go for Edwards but I think Kerry will win it.

Clark has a lame campaign here.