I don't think Joe wants to see a Republican win if he splits the Dem vote

[mtnsnake]

in CT by running as an Independent. I wonder if he wants to split the vote, period, of Democrat AND Republican voters.

Do you think Joe actually thinks he can win as an Independent because he's under the illusion that Republicans like him enough that many of them will vote for him...along with almost half of Democrats?

Sorry about yet another Lieberman thread. I'm not trying to set up another Bash Joe Fest, just trying to get some feedback to see if you think that Joe as an Independent could actually win CT by splitting the vote of both major parties in that state and gaining support of a significant percentage of Republicans there which could put him over the top. Either way, it reeks of desperation.

[Cooley Hurd]

1. What if Joe runs as a repig? Evidently, the repig nominee has some baggage

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=364&topic_id=1671355&mesg_id=1671355

Alan Schlesinger has a gambling problem, and the CT repigs want to oust him.

[mtnsnake]

8. I think he'd stand a much greater chance of losing as a Rep than an Ind

If he runs as an Independent, he probably figures he'd split the Dem vote and get enough of the Repug vote to put him over the top.

[skipos]

2. When Joe started to beat the war drum

CT Dems got upset. When he continued to beat the war drum despite no WMDs, no Osama links, etc, even more CT Dems got upset. When he didn't rule out running as an indy, even more. When he announced he was collecting signatures, even more. When he ACTUALLY runs as an indy, I think even more CT Dems will bail out on him. A Rasmussen poll had him taking 61% as a Dem, 44% as an indy. That was before Joe even announced he would hedge his bets. That is a pretty big drop, and it will be even bigger when he actually does it.

[mtnsnake]

4. Yes, but will he make up for it by gaining enough Repub votes as an Ind?

I'm not sure if I'm following your Rasmussen poll correctly. Do the 61% and the 44% figures pertain only to Democrats or to ALL voters in that state, Democratic and Republican?

[skipos]

7. all voters. nt

[mtnsnake]

9. Here's the shocker, though. Lieberman WINS the seat as an Ind, according

to that poll, unless I'm reading it wrong. I just found the poll you mentioned and it says:

As a Democrat running against Republican nominee Alan Schlesinger, Lieberman polls at 61 percent to Schlesinger’s 23 percent. However, as an independent candidate running in a three-way race, Lieberman polls much lower, at 44 percent to primary challenger Ned Lamont’s 29 percent and Schlesinger’s 15 percent.

http://www.prospect.org/midterm/2006/06/ct_sen_between_a_rock_and_a_ha.html

While 44% is lower than the 61% he'd get if he ran as a Democrat, it's still plenty enough for him to win as an Independent. So, according to that poll, Lieberman knows he can win either as a Democrat or an Independent, but he just has to get into the race. He'd win with a bigger advantage as a Democrat, but he might not make it there as a Democrat.

[patricia92243]

3. I have always thought this. The old "If I can't have it, nobody will"

mentality. His ego is hurt, and he will lash out at anyone in order to make himself feel like a big-shot again.

[mtnsnake]

5. That's not what I'm thinking. I'm wondering if he'd get enough Rep support

to more than make up for any Democratic ground he'd lose, should he run as an Independent.

[CTyankee]

6. I'm waiting for the polls

Haven't seen any lately. What I am getting anecdotally is a mixed bag. I've been talking with fellow Dems here. Mostly they are strongly supportive of Ned but there are some who seem undecided. I am not seeing a plethora of lawn signs and bumperstickers, only a few here and there.

Today the talk is all about the gubernatorial race since the Democratic candidates debate was last night. That race will be settled also on Aug. 8. It's going to be close.

This is an uphill battle for Ned, I believe. I think we have to be realistic, while hoping always (and working for)the best outcome.

[femmedem]

10. Don't forget the unaffiliated voters.

It isn't solely about taking votes away from Republican and Democratic candidates. In CT, the largest group of registered voters is unaffiliated. I think this is the group Lieberman most hopes will support him if he runs as an independent.

[enough already]

11. Polls indicate Lie-berman wins easily as an Indy

I hate that guy.

[calico1]

12. True, but don't forget that should Lamont

win the primary, he will have the backing of the DNC. That will change things. Lieberman running as an Independent will be significantly weakened.