Schwarzenegger Opens Lead in Governor's Race, Poll Says

[The Straight Story]

Schwarzenegger Opens Lead in Governor's Race, Poll Says

A surge in popularity for Arnold Schwarzenegger has the incumbent governor poised for a second term in office, according to the results of a new poll released Thursday.

In a poll conducted by the Survey and Policy Research Institute at San Jose State University, Schwarzenegger holds a 7-point edge in the race for governor, leading Democratic challenger state Treasurer Phil Angelides 44 percent to 37 percent. Fourteen percent of voters were undecided.

The lead is attributed to a recent upswing in support for the Republican governor. Schwarzenegger's job approval rating has vaulted to 49 percent, the governor's highest numbers in 16 months. Analysts said brokering an agreement over the state $131 billion budget including increases in education and infrastructure spending helped Schwarzenegger gain support among women and independent voters.

In fact, the poll showed unaffiliated votes helped lead Schwarzenegger's surge toward the November vote. Independents support the governor over Angelides 47 percent to 27 percent.

http://www.kxtv.com/storyfull2.aspx?storyid=18602

[Caoimhe]

1. My god, what is wrong with people?

I thought Californians were smarter than this!

[still_one]

11. Phil Angelides has NO PERSONALITY, and is not advertising

like Arnold. If he waits too long we will lose for sure

[demosincebirth]

13. I haven't seen one ad for Angelides here in the Bay Area.

What he waiting for?

One of his ads should show Arnold hugging Dumbya at the repug conv in '04.

[still_one]

17. I have heard them say his campaign is waiting until it gets

closer to the election. Haven't we learned anything?

If they get to big of a lead it will be over

[Mz Pip]

26. Me either.

Nothing. Maybe he is taking the Bay Area for granted. Who knows? I haven't heard much from him period.

Mz Pip
:dem:

[demosincebirth]

29. This isn't electoral votes, as you know, its popular vote.

[mitchtv]

33. same here in the Desert Cities

Arnold ads , several per hr; 24/7; not a peep from Phil
remember how Kerry went on vacation after the primary? did nothing to counter the Swiftliars? same here. Davis didn't bother to advertise in this area either, although he had loads of money. Now i hear that this guy Mulholland is in charge again, WTF?
Every vote counts. (even in the red counties)

[ronnykmarshall]

43. I see some in LA now and then.

The primary took it's toll on his funds.

I think we're screwed.

[coalition_unwilling]

16. Angelides has a personality like a wet washrag.

He has been doing limited TV advertising. I keep waiting for the nurses and teachers to start their campaigns against Schwarzenazi, but haven't seen any sign of them yet on the airwaves. I think they may be taking a "keep your powder dry" strategy, b/c most Californians aren't yet paying much attention to the race.

[still_one]

18. "keep your powder dry" is a dangerous strategy

it allows your opponent to paint you, and forces you to go on the defensive

Sounds mostly like the Democratic strategy for the past six years

[coalition_unwilling]

21. Oh, I don't know. Once the nurses start showing up at every

Schwarzenazi campaign appearance, the Gropenator will start going back down in the public's esteem. (Californians like their nurses :)

[still_one]

24. I hear you, but Phil needs to get out NOW and define himself

before they define him

[mitchtv]

35. Many of the Ads are doing a good job of

using Westly quotes to do said painting

[ronnykmarshall]

46. Like I said before the primary ...

Thanks a lot Steve and Phil!

They did Arnie work for him.

[INDIA]

2. WHAT????

How is this possible? California DU'ers chime in!

[arcane1]

4. don't ask me! I'm just as clueless

though I notice it says his approval has "vaulted" to 49%... so at least the majority of us still hate his ass

I guess part of it might be that nobody knows who the hell is running against him?

[ronnykmarshall]

5. Two words:

Primary Election.


The two democrats beat the shit out of each other and gave Arnie all the ammo he needs.

[still_one]

8. frankly Phil Angelides is a dud

he better get off his butt and start putting ads on TV, and inform the people what he has to offer

If he waits too much longer it is over

[ronnykmarshall]

42. I agree 100%.

I was not thrilled with the crop of Democrats that ran in the primary. It's like 1994 all over again. A shitty sitting gov and a lack luster crop of candidates.

[skipos]

6. Westly always polled better against Arnie than Angelides did

It was pretty obvious to me that Angelides was going to have more of an uphill battle. It will be a tough one, and I hope he can pull it off.

[still_one]

9. Absolutely, and the Democratic leadership pushed Angelides

he doesn't have the charisa, and is not doing much advertising

[ProudDad]

51. The anti-Phil ads are not Arnold's

directly that is. They're all paid for by the repuke party.

Arnold's bush/rove's boy.

They're pretty tinny too -- I think folks aren't going to believe them in the long run.

--------

And yes, the Nurses are going to be on Arnold's ASS BIG TIME. I was at a rally on Tuesday in downtown Oakland and Labor -- especially the CNA -- are READY, WILLING and ABLE...

[Le Taz Hot]

38. It is possible because

we have just as many pod people in this state as any other state. They just love the idea of the "terminator" as their guv. It's just cool, don't 'cha know? They couldn't care less about the state of the state, they just like being able to say "Ahnie" is their governor.

The M$M is also doing their part by showing non-stop Ahnold movies day in and day out which results in free advertisement for Der Gropenator.

For the naysayers above, I've seen plenty of Angelides ads here in the Central San Joaquin Valley (yes, like it or not, we ARE part of California). It's running about 50/50 in these parts.

[WI_DEM]

3. the democrats hurt one another in the primary according to Kos

but Arnold is the incumbent and 44% still substantially under 50% so it can still be done--but Californians seem to like electing actors to public office, so who knows.

[still_one]

10. the reason is because Phil Angelides ISN'T advertising

arnold lost big when he put up his anti-labor initiatives in a special election, maybe that is a HINT PHIL

[rfranklin]

12. Watch CA go red in 2008 if Arnold controls the voting machines...

Mark my words, Sonny!

[Sam Odom]

34. Only the city limits of LA & SF keep Cal blue

If the repubs could suppress the vote in those two places they could carry California.

[still_one]

7. they should have nominated Wesley

but no the infinite wisdom of the major Democratic leaders choose Phil Angelides

OK, fine, I voted for Wesley, but I will support Angelides, but WHEN IS PHIL GOING TO START MAKING HIMSELF KNOW

Schwarzenegger is out there campaigning hard. Come on Phil talk to labor, nurses, teachers, and independents, tell them WHY YOU ARE GOOD FOR THE STATE.

[Mz Pip]

25. More short sidedness

by the Dems.Most of the major players jumped on the Angelides bandwagon way to early. They really should have held their tongues a bit longer. I, too, supported Westly because he didn't come across as a party hack. Oh well. Dems are going to have to do a paradigm shift if they want to make progress in the coming years. Just being "anti Repug" won't cut it.

Mz Pip
:dem:

[AtomicKitten]

14. nooooooooooooooooooooooooooo! n/t

[MattP]

15. Damage done

The ad the California Rethugs are running asks "what if Steve Westley was right", I think the ad works. I'm going to vote for Phil of course but the way the Dem's beat up on each other was brutal and did all the damage that was needed.

[AtomicKitten]

20. I totally agree.

As a Californian, I cringed when I saw the ad wars the Dems engaged in. It hurt us, not Lumpy.

[PlanetBev]

19. Who the hell is running the Angelides campaign?

At least Westly had Garry South, one of the most lethal campaign managers that has ever lived.

What is Phil going to do? Wait until he's been completely defined by the other side, then hope to pull it out in the last few weeks?

[1932]

41. Smart people. Westly spent what? $30M to Phil's $10M. Westly ran an Arnold

style campaign (notice Arnold is running the same ads).

And Phil won running as a Democrat with democratic values.

[mitchtv]

47. Yeah South did a great job of destroying angelidies

Westly can now join Al Cecchi in the dustbin of history

[SaveElmer]

22. Combination of two things...

Uninspiring Democratic candidate beaten up in primary...

and I hate to say it a surprisingly nimble Schwarzenegger, knowing when to resist some of the neanderthal beckonings of the national party.

[GreenTea]

23. Remember all those people laughing on DU saying Arnold was toast...

just six month's ago...I kept saying Arnold can't lose...not against the two Dem clowns running against him...They pointed to his poll numbers - I said they don't mean shit. Because I knew Arnold would again pretend to be a moderate democrat (like Bush during elections) until after Arnold wins -- then it's back to his real republican agenda.

[Awsi Dooger]

28. I wasn't one of them

My priority is the gov races but I more or less wrote this one off in '03. California always re-elects the incumbent gov. Plus, if you look at the breakdown of the '03 recall Arnold had very high numbers in terms of people saying they were voting for him, not merely against Davis. Celebrity equals teflon and war chest and therefore margin for error.

Besides, as I 've posted dozens of times, it takes charisma and personality to knock off an incumbent. Especially a high profile incumbent who is coinsidered likeable himself. We routinely ignore that. You can't pick a nominee in a race against an incumbent the same way you handicap an open race.

We had a chance if this race was held in November '05 instead of '06, but right now I think the betting line on Arnie winning is a real bargain at roughly 1/2.

[thatsrightimirish]

27. well, bush got 44% in 2004

But that's not good because Arnold is still seen as a moderate. Angeldes needs to first, run better ads about him. He should try to make them funny because right now he has the personality of a cup. Then he needs to go on the attack just like gray davis did in 2002.

[BigYawn]

31. The attack ads of Gray Davis basically were ineffective as the results

of the election clearly show. Californians are not looking
for attack ads, they are looking for solutions to the problems
in California (and that applies nationwide also).

[thatsrightimirish]

36. he won in 2002

[Awsi Dooger]

37. I think he's referring to 2003

Davis ran attack ads against Arnold leading up to the recall. Davis was too unpopular at that point for them to have any impact. If Riordan and not Simon had been the nominee in '02 Davis might not have won that race. Certainly much closer.

[Sam Odom]

30. Frankly, Angelides is just wrong on taxes

This alone will beat him

[BigYawn]

32. Overall Taxcutters win many more elections than opposite...

The sooner democrats jump on the tax cutting bandwagon,
the better. Since the US Treasury actually collected MORE
TAX REVENUE in 2005 is clear proof that taxcuts DO NOT REDUCE
money available to the government for spending on good causes.

[leesa]

39. Frankly, Arnie's just gonna put the debt on the credit card like he has

in the past and rack up magnificent interest. But hey, live for today...

[1932]

40. How'd he win primary, then?

[Mz Pip]

48. Low turn out

seriously negative campaigning on both Angelides' and Westly's part. Party movers and shakers endorced Angelides.

And even though Ahnold doesn't have a particularly high approval rating, people don't out and out hate him. He's not the worst governor we've ever hate (I'll throw that honor to Reagan). Lots of people in CA aren't particularly political so a guy with the charisma of Ahnold and celebrity stature goes a long way. Sad but true.

Mz Pip
:dem:

[truebrit71]

44. I cannot believe it.....????

Are people REALLY that fucking stupid?

Look at who we have in the WH....

Never mind, forget I asked.... :eyes:

[sendero]

45. I don't ever want to hear a Californian here..

... dissing Texas.

[OzarkDem]

49. Beware bogus polling

Its quite prevalent in Ohio this season.

No doubt, in this case, San Jose State University is looking to get an increase in its state funding.

On edit, Schwarzenegger had 39% Approval in late June.

http://www.surveyusa.com/50State2006/50StateGovernor060615State.htm

[tibbir]

50. Great......

not.

[Crazy Guggenheim]

52. Angelides cannot wait to campaign he has to attack!