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Mark Warner = best chance John Edwards = second best
The other so-called issues will take care of themselves. That's always my belief. Nothing on DU is more cumbersome or irrelevant than debating issue difference between our presidential candidates. You don't get to the level of potential nominee without broad strength on the issues. And a nominee of a major party is afforded an automatic benefit of a doubt on the issues. No one will agree with me but I'm used to that. Get a Democrat in office and I'll take my chance on the issues.
Obviously it's different in the senate. I'm hardly comparing Lieberman's mindset and priorities to Feingold's and claiming no difference.
Charisma is not as important in an open presidential race. You'll almost never knock out an incumbent if the challenger lacks charisma, unless the incumbent cooperates with an approval rating in the 30s. In an open race the course of the nation is at question, not comparison to the incumbent. Gore would have fit much worse if trying to evict an incumbent. Likewise Mark Warner, who is picking the ideal time to run, and I love astute handicapping.
I'm one of the few DUers who has switched candidates from 2004 to 2008 when the initial choice is still viable. And it's hardly random, or dissatisfaction with Edwards, my 2004 pick. Edwards would have been our best shot in '04 due to charisma and its potential pull from the center and soft Republicans. We ignored that handicapping truth in favor of a resume. For 2008 the key is best chance to win the electoral college in a 50/50 scenario, which '08 figures to be based on the current polarized era plus the history of elections after one party has held the White House exactly two straight terms. Only '88 among the five most recent examples wasn't a popular vote coin flip.
I've posted this dozens of times: Warner via Virginia's 13 electoral votes provides the springboard to reverse the margin for error, Avoiding the uphill necessity of Ohio or Florida. Not a given we hold all the Kerry/Gore states especially New Hampshire, but if we did then Virginia plus one more among Nevada, Iowa, Colorado, or New Mexico puts us in the White House.
How 'bout a Warner/Richardson ticket? That really puts the GOP up against it, assuming our ticket can carrry the two home states.
Given that Democratic ticket, the Republicans are virtually forced to win all these states: Ohio, Florida, Iowa, Colorado, Nevada. Even if every one falls their way, they most likely would also need New Hampshire. So that's virtually zero margin for error. I'd love to force them into that desperation mode for a change.
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