GALLUP: "Democrats Looking Strong Heading Toward Midterm Elections"

[snowbear]

"Eleven-point lead in first half of 2006 is the highest Gallup has measured"


~~~~ Yeah, baby! ~~~~~


http://poll.gallup.com/content/?ci=23389

~~~~~ Keep it up guys!

[AX10]

1. We need to turn this into a victory.

[BillZBubb]

2. Eleven points in nothing...

Given that Repug leaning voters tend to always vote and many Dem leaning voters don't bother. Even worse, is that incumbency negates about 10% of our advantage. Then there's Diebold.

We need a solid 20% lead going into the election to feel comfortable.

[snowbear]

Ah c'mon Ambushed... Democrats will be voting in all out FULL FORCE..

..this November!!

They'll probably never be a more important time in our lifetimes to vote!

If anyone sits it out in '08.. it will be Rethugs, not Democrats.

Not after what we've been through.

You've got to have FAITH!

[still_one]

6. I look at the primary in California, and it was pathetic for turnout

[snowbear]

8. Was it an extremely Rethug District? .. And was the race fairly close?

If you answered yes to either question..

...We're gonna win big time in November!

[still_one]

14. I am talking about the whole state, the turnout was dismal

I hope we win in November, but if we do it has nothing to do with what the democrats have done for the last 6 plus years, but how the repukes have screwed up

[IndependentVoice]

26. glad your optimistic

but studies show that not even 50% of people vote, not either party but over all less then half of the eligible voters out there don't do just that, and the religious right (who is always on our side) :sarcasm: makes up a huge amount of that vote.

[wryter2000]

34. Welcome to DU

:hi:

[Harry Monroe]

So true

More people vote in "American Idol" than in primary and general elections. A very disturbing trend for the state of democracy in this country. The Roman rulers kept the people happy with "bread and circuses"; who cared about democracy?? We have our own version of this with the current crop of "reality TV".

[OnionPatch]

24. This is true....but.....

I'm here in California. The hot race (Busby) was in a very, very Republican area. The big primary was between two Dems who attacked each other and didn't have a lot of policy difference. Even some of my most politically active friends had a hard time choosing and a few of them didn't bother to vote. Don't yell at me....I voted, but honestly, it did cross my mind to stay home. In my district, there was only one Dem on the ballot for each race. The only other choices were write-ins. But this November? You couldn't keep us from the polls for anything! I wouldn't predict turnout from our primary.

[wryter2000]

36. I hear you

At first, I had a hard time choosing between the two Dems. Then, they both disgusted me with all the negative ads, and I didn't want to vote for either of them. I ended up voting for Angelides, but I can see why someone wouldn't care.

[Patchuli]

52. I think Angelides and Westly both hurt

themselves and disgusted us with the negative crap. Hopefully, Phil has learned from this because HE MUST get rid of Schwartzenegger!

[Moloch]

32. The Dem primary here in Virginia had a pathetic...

turnout also. It was like 3.5% statewide.

Hopefully there will be a lot more interest in the November elections.

[BillZBubb]

10. I hope you are right. But in several of this year's elections,

Democratic turnout has been fairly weak. Our leadership must to more to motivate our base. This is always a problem.

[Harry Monroe]

35. Don't lose focus, keep your eyes on the goal...

The Dems need to stay focused and united and on message. Grow a set of balls and be aggressive countering every Republican lie. Hammer the true facts home and the American people will respond. I'm sure we'll see the Republicans step up smears and fringe issues such as gay marriage in the coming months to mobilize their easily fooled fundamentalists base. We MUST show the country we are united and determined. Hope they don't blow it once again by fragmentation of the message and looking divisive. :think:

[wryter2000]

37. Welcome to DU

:hi:

[Patchuli]

50. Keep in mind that the repubs are going against their 'base'

with the voting lately in Congress. They want to keep the war going which is a loser with Americans and they just voted down raising the paltry minimum wage which I think will bite them too. I think the majority of sleeping sheeple have been feeling the pinch long enough to know it's not going to get any better if they keep these asshats in charge of Congress and the Senate. I really think it's moved beyond the nonsensical "values" agenda they fooled all those voters with and I think we are going to get control away and back into the adult hands. I think our very survival depends on it!

[Erika]

3. Our country is tired of the GOP agenda of gloom, doom

and bucks for the rich. We're tired of the warmongering and the senseless death of our troops.

We're tired of big brother government delving into personal privacy. We're tired of big government spending.

We're tired of W and his rubber stamp GOP followers.

[KingFlorez]

4. All Right!

I hope this holds until November.

BTW, love the dancing rabbits!

[still_one]

5. DON'T BELIEVE IT

1. unless they vote it is worthless
2. unless the votes are assured to be accurate it is worthless

So what has the DNC done to assure that the voting will be accurate?

[sallyseven]

68. So what have you done?

to make sure that the vote is accurate?

[AmandaRuth]

7. the voters just need to remember that a vote for a republican

any republican

is a vote for never ending war, and war profiteering

is a vote for forced birth

is a vote for the destruction of our public schools

is a vote for the destruction of social security

is a vote for a theoretical takeover of our county

is a vote for poverty wages

is a vote for the continuation of the destruction of our environment

is a vote for less security and open borders

[snowbear]

9. Great list AmandaRuth!

~~~~

[AmandaRuth]

11. personally i vote straight dem

always have always will, but I can understand people who split or are independents, BUT NOT THIS TIME! If anyone has any brains they will vote straight dem this time for a whole slew of reasons, not the least of which is to put some kind of fear and respectability and responsibility back into the government, media and corporations

[IndependentVoice]

30. ...

Saying that all republicans are bad, unconditionally is one of the most close-minded things you could say. As liberals, moderates, independents and democrats we pride ourselves on being the party that is open minded. But then to say something like that shows, we are just as hypocritical as the right. Are most of them dishonest career politicians who are in this for their own selfish gain, yes, but there are some good ones out there. Your painting them all with a very broad brush, which is why so many call democrats "elitists" who look down their noses on others, and its discouraging a lot of potential democrats to vote republican. Thats why the republicans did so well for themselves for so long, they pointed out elitists and told the people they were on their side. Its gonna take more than just people being tired of republicans to get more votes, its also going to take showing the people we are better than republicans because we aren't hypocritical like them, which makes this behavior self defeating. This is only meant to be constructive criticism, please don't be upset with it.

[Lasher]

46. There are times when it is best to use a broad brush

I think it's legitimate to compare basic characteristics of the two parties and decide which one best supports the goals and ideals that are important to you. I will grudgingly admit that it is possible for a Republican to be a better selection for office than a Democrat. I'm still waiting to see one though (ha ha, sort of). But in these times it is best to use a broad brush because the Republican party has a stranglehold on our government and it is important for us to do what we can to change that. It is apparent that you are a thinking person, so you have no doubt noticed that the Republican party's agenda is always the very first priority these days, above all else.

In this environment I see it sort of like pirates attacking our ship. Sure, some of the pirates might be swell guys in a different situation, but every one of them is over there on their ship, firing cannons at us and hoping for a chance to steal everything we have, torture and kill us all, and sink our ship. Maybe after we have sunk their ship we can reflect on the relative virtues of each of the pirates when we fish them from the water.

I'm voting a straight Democrat ticket this November, and I don't think that is an indication I am a person who doesn't have an open mind.

[IndependentVoice]

51. good point

I cant vote until 2008 primaries unfortunately because of age restrictions, but yes i agree in this situation, it would be best to vote straight democrat, I would as well. But my point was simply not all of them are bad, its when they get into a group that they become the Frankenstein they are famous for being. My other point was simply we could win over more people if we learned not to say things like this which (even if they are sometimes true) can from other points of view look like we are close minded and be a huge turn off. We need to start looking at what we say and how it will be interpreted if we want to be the more compassionate party. Nonetheless yours is a very valid point.

[Lasher]

55. Points well taken, IndependentVoice

I hope you stick around here at DU, as you seem quite thoughtful.

I remember when I was first old enough to vote. It was 1970, and I had been drafted into the Army and was in Seoul, Korea. We had to be 21 then, but I'm glad the age is 18 now. I always felt it sucked to be old enough to be drafted and perhaps sent into combat (I was never in combat) to kill and/or be killed, but not be afforded the priveleges of an adult, like voting.

Lasher

[IndependentVoice]

57. ya

most people don't vote but i can't wait. :woohoo:

[AmandaRuth]

59. i must respond, but please don't get mad

I'm fricking done being nice - I was nice during the October surprise, I was nice during the Clinton witchhunt, I was nice during the rise of the theocratical right, I was nice during the rise of hate radio, I was nice during gerrymanding and voter suppression, I was nice during media consolidation and the packing of the supreme court. We are one or two elections away from the destruction of my country (see my original list) and any vote, and I mean any vote republican is a move closer to that.

You mentioned your age, let me tell you mine - 48. I can tell you that being fair and nice and kind to our republican friends has got us right where we are today. It IS time to paint all republicans with a broad brush - in exactly the same way they painted the word "liberal" and "democrat". If we can get them running scared, maybe maybe maybe then we will have give and take, responsibility, accountability, and genuine dialogue on the issues.

[IndependentVoice]

62. So we stoop to their level?

Fair enough though I can understand why your mad I was only offering my opinion to help vent because I'm mad and scared as well. I can't tell you what to do and you have obviously a lot more life experience than me, thats another reason I'm here no one my age cares about politics, so I came somewhere where I can learn and looking at something from several views can help with that.

[AmandaRuth]

64. So we stoop to their level?

if thats what it takes to save this country for my daughter, my brothers children, your future children. Done being nice.

Also, please understand this is not an independent forum, this is DU, for democrats. I vent my frustrations here. But I am telling you, being nice does not get you votes or progress, just loss and regression.

[IndependentVoice]

67. I know its democratic but it was the best forum on the net I could find

Sorry if I upset you I don't want to fight, just giving my opinion.

[Harry Monroe]

47. Oh, so right

"We must all stand united or we will most assuredly hang seperately"

[spag68]

61. repubs.

I agree that saying all of them are bad is closed minded, but when they all vote in a block, how can a person think otherwise. If even one one of them would break from this insanity, then your statement would be justified. However they don't so what else can we think.

[IndependentVoice]

65. So are you saying that every single last one of them EVERYONE is bad?

[rfranklin]

48. I think you could manage the campaigns better than the...

pathetic a-holes that have been running the show in the prior 5 or 6 elections.

[AtomicKitten]

12. that's some good news I could stand to hear today

thanks.

[GubmitSpies]

13. Midterms

The only problem here is the displaced workforce of former Republican bs-ilators.

I predict that white collar crime rates will soar as the former pols are forced to engage in ordinary white collar crime to make a living. W

[wryter2000]

38. Welcome to DU

:hi:

Lots of great newbies in this thread.

[Guaranteed]

15. Get this, according to Gallup:

"In recent elections, the Republican Party has trailed the Democrats in the final pre-election poll by as much as eight percentage points among all registered voters and still managed to win a majority of U.S. House seats in the election. It is unlikely, however, that the Republican majority could survive if the double-digit Democratic lead among registered voters -- as exists today -- persists into the final pre-election polling in late October and early November."

[Binka]

17. Translation "GOP Is Fucked Cuz Double-Digit Leads Are Hard To Steal"

Gallup is signaling Rove to hack a bit deeper. With the blivet polling at a real %29 they are in shit dog territory.

[MoonRiver]

29. Does this mean that double digit wins are Diebold proof?

Maybe there is a double digit cutoff for either the ability or chutzpa to cheat.
:shrug:

[peaches2003]

16. Sounds good, BUT.....

the problem is these midterm Congressional elections are local (and state wide for those Senators up for reelection). While people will answer a national poll that they want change, when it comes to their own Congressman the majority of Repugs think he/she is fine and vote for their incumbent.

A national poll does not necessarily translate to what will happen locally in a midterm election.

[Trouser Trout]

18. I would respectfully disagree Peaches

More times than not the midterms are a referendum of how the national leaders(Prez. Dickhead) are doing, a la 1994.Hammer home how these guys were in charge and look at the mess we're in!Had enough,how could it possibly be worse,culture of corruption,etc.

[ItsTheMediaStupid]

20. I had the same thoughts 1 minute later

nt

[peaches2003]

21. Gerrymandering

I believe history has proven that with gerrymandering of districts it is VERY difficult to unseat an incumbent. No matter how dissatisfied voters are with the national scene the districts are so gerrymandered that the majority party voters in that district still like the Congressperson of their party. And with Congress in the hands of the Repugs for so long now most districts are drawn in the Repub Party's favor. 1994 hasn't been duplicated in the last 5 elections, but hopefully this will be the year.

I'm simply saying that national polls do not always reflect reality district by district, so we shouldn't be overconfident based on these polls.

Yes, we do have to make W the issue in the election! The 'culture of corruption' issue is not going to be 'the' issue that it should be. So far it doesn't reflect in the polls as important at all.

[ItsTheMediaStupid]

19. Dems need to make this a referendum on W

Steal a page from the Gingrich playbook circa 1994.

[whododayis]

25. rational reasoning alert!!! well stated peaches!

[Ian_rd]

22. Do these polls take into consideration the percentage ...

... expected to be stolen by the GOP? What is the actual democratic advantage then? Three points?

[bs1]

23. Dems poll well, but Righties are winning elections

http://www.pollyticks.com

[yomarisschmidt]

28. diebold, duh

In other countries, candidates who poll well win elections.

[wryter2000]

41. Welcome to DU

:hi:

My waving hand is getting tired. :evilgrin:

[snowbear]

75. LOL...

Just say .. Welcome to DU!

[wryter2000]

39. Welcome to DU

:hi:

[yomarisschmidt]

27. Will Democrats win enough states?

projections in the Zogby poll and Rasmussen poll say it is highly unlikely that the senate or House will change hands.

[Lasher]

54. No, that's not true, yomarisschmidt

There are good reasons to hope that we will succeed in regaining at least one house of Congress this November.

According to the latest polling information available (not just Zogby and Rasmussen), we will pick up three Senate seats: Montana, Ohio, and Ohio. Again, according to all the most recent polls, we would loose no seats.

We need to gain at least six seats to regain control of the Senate, and there is good reason to hope that we can get them. There are three other races where we are very close to picking up seats: Missouri, Rhode Island, and Tennessee.

I believe momentum is in our favor. If you have been following the races in Virginia and Wisconsin, for example, you will know why I feel this way.

We probably have an even better chance of regaining control of the House, but this is harder to track than the Senate races because there are more people running for office, and also because less polling information is available. Here's a couple of web sites that would be useful to anyone who is trying to get their arms around the House races:

http://electionpredictions.blogspot.com/

http://www.ourcongress.org/

[IndependentVoice]

56. also

last I heard blackwell is down 17 points in Ohio. :toast:

[spag68]

63. seats

The absolute most wonderful seat to pickup would be Virginia. Although this is a long shot, it would like 3 birds with one stone. We can always hope for a stunner like that.

[Lasher]

74. Hey spag68, have you seen the new WSJ/Zogby poll?

Looks like we were quite prophetic about Virginia, ya think? Go, Webb! :applause:

[The_Casual_Observer]

31. Thus the desperate move to politicize Iraq this week.

Make all the declarations and resolutions you want, the Iraqis aren't listening.

[wryter2000]

33. Oh, please, oh, please, oh, please

I hope that translates into votes for dems, but I'm so afraid that when it comes down to an individual Republican versus an individual Democrat, the idiots will hold their noses and vote for the R.

We must regain at least one house of Congress so we can have real hearings big enough that the corporate media can't ignore them. We need to get the truth of this disaster of a government out to the people.

[MrBlueSky]

40. Does this mean that Repubs will win by 51%-49% again?

Since when did the truth (given to us by Gallup) EVER stop Karl Rove from ordering flipping votes in all elections since 1998. (He's been ordering that Democrat votes be flipped to 3rd party, independent and Republicans to ensure that the Republican candidate consistently wins.)

Or maybe he'll call his buddy Osama bin Forgotten for another 9/11 style attack?

Or maybe he'll give the order to "arrest" Osama (for the cameras only) and, viola... there he is... two weeks before the election.

Karl Rove says the Dems will not win.

I'd strongly recommend to all DU'ers to take that madman seriously.

[wryter2000]

42. Welcome to DU

:hi:

[deaniac21]

43. L A N D S L I D E ! ! ! !

[demo dutch]

44. We'll see what the voting machines will come up with!

[IndependentVoice]

45. Thats what scares me

[rniel]

49. I'll bet they have something planned

to help them keep power. I just wonder what it's going to be this time.

I mean besides the diebold machines, something that they can point to after all the exit polls are way off.

[IndependentVoice]

53. Never fear

they always find some way to help them cheat, lets not forget what else they do thats just as bad, voter discrimination.

[EXDIA53]

58. They may not have to cheat...

as long as there is one GOP and three or four Democratic Parties. I am surrounded by white, upper-middle class voters who are begging for a chance to vote Dem, as long as it's not Kerry or Gore. I'm out of place here because I'm not an ideologue, but I am a Euro-style, social democrat who has one disagreement with many Dem's - the war on Islamofascism. That said, in order to get a Dem to win a house or senate seat, let alone the presidency, you need to get more voters to the polls than the other guys, especially when (if) they cheat. Most solid middle class people of whatever ethnic background, i.e. the ones most sure to show up on voting day, think most of the leading Dem's are "spoiled goods".
A party with three "leaders" will not cut it in 2008 now, and if the economy or a new terrorist attack pops up between now and then, it will take a disciplined, GOP style apparatus to win, not the Pilosi/Kennedy/Kerry food fight we have now. The bottom line is, you can get every voter left of Joe Biden to the polls in 08 and still get less than 50% of the vote. Sad but true. Instead, we tell ourselves fairy tales about how "working America" wants anti-globalism and the US out of the middle east. It just ain't so.

[IndependentVoice]

60. So what then?

I can think of a few ways that would work out. 1)Dem's lie and go for what the other people want and not stand for their own issues, you know like supporting the war like you hinted oh so subtly at because, if you haven't noticed its been working really well so far :sarcasm: 2)Dem's try to expose voting fraud, probably won't but if they did it would be a huge boost for them 3)They finally make a stand for democratic values and hope people are tried enough of the rethugs that they come over or 4)They fish in the pond of the 50%+ of americans that don't vote.

[demo dutch]

70. Problem is that the Dems MUST unite, it's the only way to beat the Gop

and to win any GOP/Independent votes for the Dems. According to the polls Democratic voters are united, but not the GOP voters. However Rove is still at the helm. He'll use devision to make the Dems look wishy washy and apparently the American public believes him. He'll make sure that the party stays united, once back into office, they'll do whatever they want. The fact is, the mindset of a GOP voter makes it highly unlikely to ever vote for DEM, they rather die. (pathetic isn't it!) Therefore in my view a United, One Voice, Democratic party is the only way to capture those indecisive voters.

Kerry should have been a LANDSLIDE but it wasn't, it was so close that with voter fraud the GOP was able to pull it off.

[EXDIA53]

73. Must go for non-voters...

because, as I said, everybody left of Biden is less than 50% of current voters. Yes, in the polls Dem's look united. But when you watch C-SPAN, or just talk to a Dem elected official or staffer, you'll see that it's an illusion. The actual elected Dem's, especially in the house, are in no way united.
As for my earlier post, I never indicated that I supported the Iraqi invasion. It was a stupid, counter-productive move. The broader war on Islamist fascism I support wholeheartedly. I see the American left is also guilty of what it accuses the right of doing - joining Iraq with worldwide Islamist terror campaigns. There is not such confusion in Europe. Even the French Socialists, at least behind closed doors, will tell you that wiping out Islamist extremism is becoming a priority.
I'm sure one of you will come up with some French student who loves Bin Laden, but I'm speaking of the people who actually influence policy.

[disndat]

66. Yes

Don't forget we won both '00 and '04 presidential elections. If The Democrats don't do something serious about the Republican owned electronic elections machines and Republican dirty tricks, it's going to be deja vu all over again in Nov. '06 and far into the future. For instance, what happened to the Diebold machines in the recent vote between Busby and the Republican candidate for the House seat where the poll workers were allowed to take the Diebold machines home? I don't hear anything more from Democrats about it. The Democrats suffer from over-confidence. They think the WH has been such a horror show that, of course, the Democrats will win for sure.

[demo dutch]

71. Yes they cheated, but Kerry should have been a landslide and

because it was close, they were able to pull if off with voter fraud.

If the DEMS don't unite the GOP will capitalize on it again and we may see another close election. Add voter fraud and you know the result!

[snowbear]

69. Hey... I know..

I think I'll bump this up so the "Whoa, is me, we're gonna lose" crowd gets to see it again.

This "BUMP" dedicated to you guys -->

(you know who you are)


Ok... back to work.

[ecoalex]

72. You can vote, have the majority, and LOSE '00'04 it'll happen again

To: National Desk

Contact: Mary Boyle of Common Cause, 202-736-5770

WASHINGTON, June 22 /U.S. Newswire/ -- A new report released Thursday by Common Cause concludes that the push to use direct recording electronic (DRE) voting machines was misguided, has resulted in serious security and reliability concerns, and should be reversed. The report also assesses states at greatest risk of having elections compromised due to problems with voting machines, presents information on voting systems used by each state and makes recommendations on safeguarding votes to citizens who must use a DRE in November.

"With nearly 40 percent of voters in 37 states expected cast ballots on DRE voting machines in less than five months, Congress needs to stop ignoring the problems and take action to assure that citizens votes are counted as cast," said Common Cause President Chellie Pingree. "We need legislation passed that would mandate random manual election audits of voting machines and require voter-verified paper trails, and citizens need to come to the polls knowing how to safeguard their vote."

The report, "Malfunction and Malfeasance: A Report on the Electronic Voting Machine Debacle," finds that 17 states, including critical swing states such as Pennsylvania, are at "high" risk of having election results compromised due to problems with voting machines known as DREs. States designated as high risk because they use DREs with no paper backup are: Arkansas, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas and Virginia.

Twenty-three states are at mid-level risk of having election results compromised. Those states use a voter-verified paper trail, but do not conduct manual audits. Eleven states are at "low" risk for a compromised election because they require mandatory audits and use voting systems that have a voter verified paper ballot.

The report also presents information on voting systems used by each state, reviews the political circumstances that led to the popularity of electronic voting machines known as DREs, and details the security and reliability problems posed by DREs. It offers eight recommendations to Congress, states, and citizens on how to safeguard our voting.

To read the report and Common Cause's recommendations for addressing the problems, go to: http://www.commoncause.org/site/apps/nl/ content2.asp?c=dkLNK1MQIwG&b=194883&ct=2676319

http://www.usnewswire.com/