WA Senate: Cantwell (D) 44%, McGavick (R) 40%

[skipos]

Personally, I am morally opposed to aiding a republican win in any way shape or form. They have been ruining America since they took control, and I couldn't live with myself if I didn't do everything I could to get democratic majorities back. While Cantwell has been bad on Iraq and Alito, she has helped dems in other areas and brings us one seat closer to a majority. 8% of dems must not see it that way though. Or maybe like Nader 2000 voters they think "there is no difference between this dem and a republican." I'd think we all have learned how wrong that belief was, now that we had a few years to see Bush in action. I hope WA dems don't make the same mistake and think there is no difference between Cantwell and McGavick.

"Cantwell attracts slightly more support from Democrats (82%) than McGavick does from Republicans (80%), but 8% of Democrats now say they would vote for another candidate altogether given a Cantwell-McGavick match-up. Only 1% of GOP voters feel that way."

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/June%202006/washingtonsenate06192006.htm

[still_one]

1. curious what is her opponents position on the Iraq war?

[maxsolomon]

2. he doesn't need one

maria cantwell is to the right of her constituents on the Iraqi Debacle, so the issue isn't on the table.

mcgavick has barely begun to campaign.

[still_one]

3. I just went to his site

and his position is the same as cantwells, so in my view as an outsider, if you have two candidates with the SAME position on Iraq, ELECT THE DEMOCRAT

http://www.mikemcgavick.com/pressrelease.asp?prid=56

It is far better for the country, we are close to the end of the republic if the democrats do not take over at least one house

[skipos]

4. Exactly. Unfortunately, many dems like to form the circular firing squad

instead of looking at the big picture. If Cantwell is defeated in the primary, I am all for it. But if she is our candidate, I will support her 1000%.

[still_one]

5. I agree, and unfortuately I would say the same thing about lieberman

PROVIDED liberman WINS THE PRIMARY and DOESN'T GO INDEPENDENT, even though I am a Ned Lamont supporter

[maxsolomon]

6. so will i, and that's why the 2 party system ensures an oligarchy

1 degree to the left of pro-corporate lapdog doesn't get me (or any washington state progressive) very excited.

but i'd vote for howard zinn for president, who cares what i think?

[skipos]

7. Her ratings on abortion, civil liberties, education, environment

makes you think she is "1 degree to the left of a pro-corporate lap dog?"

2005 Senator Cantwell supported the interests of the NARAL Pro-Choice America 100 percent in 2005.
2003-2004 Senator Cantwell supported the interests of the National Farmers Union 100 percent in 2003-2004.
2005 Senator Cantwell supported the interests of the The Humane Society of the United States 100 percent in 2005.
2005 Senator Cantwell supported the interests of the National Trust for Historic Preservation 100 percent in 2005.
2003-2004 Senator Cantwell supported the interests of the American Civil Liberties Union 78 percent in 2003-2004.
2005 Senator Cantwell supported the interests of the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People 95 percent in 2005.
2005 Senator Cantwell supported the interests of the Leadership Conference on Civil Rights 100 percent in 2005.
2005 Senator Cantwell supported the interests of the National Education Association 100 percent in 2005.
2005 Senator Cantwell supported the interests of the American Wilderness Coalition 100 percent in 2005.
2005 Senator Cantwell supported the interests of the Children's Defense Fund 89 percent in 2005.
2006 In 2006 Citizens for Global Solutions gave Senator Cantwell a rating of A+.
2005 Senator Cantwell supported the interests of the National Organization for Women 100 percent in 2005.

http://www.vote-smart.org/issue_rating_category.php?can_id=H4152103

She is weak on many issues, and could stand to be much more progressive in my opinion. I think her primary challenges will help that.

I'd appreciate it if you could find the republican pro-corporate lapdog that gets ratings like the one above. While Chafee would be my pick for the least painful republican, and he does have some similar scores, he still doesn't appear to be as progressive as Cantwell overall.

2005 Senator Chafee supported the interests of the NARAL Pro-Choice America 65 percent in 2005.
2003-2004 Senator Chafee supported the interests of the American Civil Liberties Union 67 percent in 2003-2004.
2005 Senator Chafee supported the interests of the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People 75 percent in 2005.
2005 Senator Chafee supported the interests of the Leadership Conference on Civil Rights 41 percent in 2005.
2006 In 2006 Citizens for Global Solutions gave Senator Chafee a rating of B-.
2005 Senator Chafee supported the interests of the American Association of University Women 67 percent in 2005.

[maxsolomon]

10. BANKRUPTY BILL

she's on the same page as me for the wedge issues, fine. she's stood up to ted stevens on ANWR, great.

she's just NOT IMPRESSIVE to a progressive.

[Rainscents]

8. Don't believe this poll...

Rasmussen, they did this types of bullshit polls all through Seattle mayor race last year and guess what, he won by huge margin. All through past fall, Rasmussen had Dem and Republican very close, however, in the end, Mayor own by almost 20 points. Someone is paying Rasmussen to do this shit poll...

Trust me, I am not very happy with Cantwell, however, she is the candidate for Nov ballot, I will vote for her. For primary, I will be voting for Wilson.

[skipos]

9. Rasmussen is alright. From what I can tell, they tend to favor repubs

but I am not sure if it is due to bad methods or bad intent.

In the 05 VA race...
Rasmussens final pre-election poll
Kilgore (R) 44%
Kaine (D) 46%

election results
Kilgore (R) 46%
Kaine (D) 52%

If you had any data on the Mayoral race, I'd like to see it.

[TheVirginian]

11. All the VA polls had Kilgore up until the last week.

Kaine only pulled ahead, in ANY published poll, in the very last week.

[TheVirginian]

12. Don't blame the pollster

Pollsters will always reflect races to be closer than they actually are, especially in non-national elections, because no one has a clear idea of who will actually turn out and vote.

Among the differences between different polling agencies, perhaps the greatest difference is who they decide to poll, whether its "registered voters", "likely voters", or "very likely voters", and how they characterize "likely" and "very likely". When pollsters include what they deem to be "likely voters" who, ultimately, don't vote, it narrows the poll down. When pollsters don't include those voters, they get too small of a sample size to conduct a reasonable poll, or they have a margin of error around 7%, which is almost as worthless.

No poll can claim 100% accuracy, which is why its always important to look at all the polls published on a race, and not just one. In addition, outliers do happen, even within just one agency's reports, so its important to track polling and not just look at one week. Is Rasmussen correct? I don't know, but its absurdly stupid just to write them off because you don't like what they say, or because they were off on one election.

If you want to get a sense of how much in trouble Cantwell is, look at Rasmussen's trending report. Rasmussen conducts all of their polls the same way, so even if its bent in favor or opposition of one opponent, unbiased trends will still develop. Cantwell has slipped in her support in every poll that Rasmussen has conducted, which means that even if she isn't only up by four points, its likely that her numbers have only gotten worse in the last five months, and not better.