A contrast between two Senate primaries ... CT and VA

[Stinky The Clown]

There have been a number of threads about these two Senate primaries.

Lamont vs Lieberman in CT and Webb vs Miller in VA.

Some are afraid of Webb because he was a Republican who only recently claimed to be a Dem. And in some races, that might well be cause for concern. And even in this race it might well be. Many here subscribe to the thesis that holds that we need to fight for principle in the primaries and then 'stand by our Dem' in the generals.

I generally subscribe to that thesis.

But let's consider these two races and draw some comparisons .... and see some fundamental differences.

In Connecticut we have a challenger to an incumbent Dem. Lamont has built a head of steam almost no one could have predicted. he still has a ways to go to beat Lieberman, but it sure seems like that becomes more possible each day. On the issues, the contrast between the two could not be sharper. If Lieberman goes on to win, he'll likely coast to relection and we are left with the status quo. At worst, it helps our seat count in the Senate. At best ..... well, I guess it is the same as the worst. But you get my point. We lose nothing. If Lamont wins the primary, we're less sure of his election, but he seems to be popular and could well do it in a blue state like Connecticut. On balance, this is a race where supporting the guy you like (I suspect, for most of us, that's Lamont) is absolutely the right thing to do. The overall risk to the seat is acceptable in the case of either man winning.

In Virginia, we have a whole other issue. First, the incumbent is a popular Republican with national appeal. Virginia is a red state. Well, purple, really, but still one that leans red. In my dreams, popular former governor Warner woudl have run against Allen. But apparantly Warner thinks more of his personal ambition than what's best for the party - the defeat of Allen. Allen's being defeated is really pretty important when you think about it. It gets us another Senate seat and, maybe even more important, it would seriously damage a potential 08 presidential nominee. I suspect a loss of this seat by Allen now would effectively cost him any chance in 08.

And so we need to look at the Dem primary. On the one hand we have this former Republican who has supported Allen in the past, who served in Reagan's cabinet and continues to see him as a good guy, and who was pretty strongly against John Kerry just a very short time ago, in the 04 run. On the flip side, he's smart and credible. He's personable in that serious, non-nonsense sort of way (conservative) that appeals in the South. He's been on board as opposed to the Mess-in-Potamia almost from the start, and has become increasingly vocal about it. He polls exceedingly well in the redder parts of his state and among the state's many, many military-connected voters. In short: he can beat Allen if things go well.

With Harris Miller we have a man who appears more as a gadfly than a serious candidate. Admittedly he's a lifelong (I think) Dem. He's also said to be pretty liberal. But he's also had some questionable business dealings. not legally, mind you, but morally. Outsourcing. Tie in to electronic voting. Self-made CEO type. So where are his serious Dem creds? Social issues? Probably .... sorta. His resume in my mind is no less dichotomous than is Webb's. The only difference is in long term party affiliation.

I watched the two men 'debate' on Hairballz last week. There wasn't a dime's worth of difference between them on the issues explored in that session.

In Virginia, I see less benefit from voting for 'principled reasons' in the primary. Assuming Webb to be sincere (and I see no reason not to), the two stack up pretty evenly on issues. So maybe we need to be much more strategic in a primary like this. I honestly think Webb can beat Allen. I don't think Miller can.

The back stories on these two primaries are very different. They are day and night different.

Anyway, that's my take on things. Fire away.

[kaygore]

1. As a Virginia voter, I agree, but rumor has it that

Republicans in the state tomorrow will vote for Miller just so Webb is not the candidate.

We'll see.

Allen has so aligned himself with Bush that he is more vulnerable this time. Also, the fact that he'll be running for president rather than representing the state should also work against him.

[Stinky The Clown]

2. Yeah, I heard that about Repubs voting for Miller .....

.... and posted about it yesterday.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x2673036

[onenote]

7. I generally agree with your analysis

However, I think, just as Virginia is not as pure "red" a state as some think, neither is Connecticut a pure "blue" state. Indeed, the Governor and 3/5 of CT's delegation to the US House of Reps are republicans. If the repubs had an indepenedently minded candidate in the mold of shays running, then I think Lamont might have a hard time if he gets the Democratic nomination. Fortunately, my sense is the repub candidate is probably too conservative for the state and that Lamont could take him. So I agree that supporting Lamont may be an acceptable risk for those that have become dissatisfied with Lieberman (and/or want to send Lieberman a message).

[Stinky The Clown]

3. self kick ... I'd really like to hear from others about this

strategic vs principled

[Nay]

4. I at first wanted to vote for Miller, since he is a lifelong Dem, but I

have since then found out that Webb was against the war, Miller is a big outsourcer, etc., and have been mad as hell at the fact that we get to vote either for a Repub (Webb) or a big biz ripoff artist "Dem."

This is why people don't vote anymore, folks. There is truly little choice between any two candidates anymore. Since I would love to see that slimeball Allen defeated, I will be voting Webb.

This leaves a very bad taste in my mouth, however. The guy is an effing Pub. When pubs run as Dems and dems are running right, we still get more of the same disastrous shit that got us all in this handbasket in the first place. Jeez.

[Tom Rinaldo]

5. We need more voices like Webb's in the Senate now

People who don't talk in spin, who have a strong personal moral compass, who have the courage of their convictions, men and women who can admit when they made a mistake and why they made it. Murtha isn't a liberal Democrat either but he has strong personal integrity. When Murtha thinks something is going wrong you can count on him to speak out. That's the type of Democrat Webb can be for us.

Even if Virginia is becoming more of a swing state, it's not an outright Blue state. If we can get someone like Webb to represent us coming out of States like Virginia, and Democrats like Ted Kennedy to represent us coming out of states like MA, the country will be in a hell of a lot better shape than it is in right now. We need people with strength and personal integrity to protect our Constitution right now, and provide a check on the Executive branch. I believe Webb will come through for us when it counts the most.

[TheVirginian]

9. I think we need less voices like Webb's in the Senate.

The man calls himself a populist. What does that mean? Panderer. One way to look at his endorsement of Democrat Chuck Robb then Republicans George Allen and George Bush is a flip-flop of party affiliation. Another way of looking at it is jumping ship when it looks like the other guys are taking over.

Take Webb's position on affirmative action. According to public statements Webb has made since before he was in the Reagan Administration, he's opposed racially-based affirmative action, believing it should be color-blind because poverty is color-blind. Then he found out that black Democratic activists didn't appreciate those comments, and they all lined up behind Harris Miller. What did the principled Jim Webb do? A month later, he flip-flopped on affirmative action, claiming that it was owed to African-Americans for the long years of suffering they've been through.

But while Webb's positions that we know about (for instance, his opposition of admission of women to the Naval Academy and other military schools) scare me, perhaps what scares me more are his positions we don't know about. Webb calls himself a Reagan Democrat. Where, then, does he stand on abortion? Same-sex marriage? Health care? If you've been paying close attention to this race as I have, then you'll be as informed as people who haven't been paying attention. Simply put, we don't know. And perhaps we won't know until Senator Jim Webb votes to confirm Supreme Court Justices who promise to overturn Roe v. Wade. And while most of the board will uproar with how worthless that DINO is driving us backwards, a few Webb apologists will shake their head and smile about how their "principled" Webb is at it again.

Miller has two strikes against him on this board: outsourcing and voting machines. But as any baseball fan knows, there's a world of difference between two strikes and an out. I'd rather take my chances with Harris Miller and hope he'll hit the next one out of the park then put all my efforts behind the pop-up to 2nd base that will represent Jim Webb if he wins tomorrow.

BTW, since when is a self-made businessman a bad thing? Last time I checked, Governor Mark Warner, Senate hopeful Ned Lamont, and many other Democrats all share that title? I would consider it a mark of honor, not something to sneer at.

[williesgirl]

10. I tend to agree with you on this. I called Webb's office to find out

his position on abortion. The person who answered the phone said he is definitely PRO CHOICE. I asked why I couldn't find anything on his website or in interviews thus far. He mumbled something about "I'm sure it's there somewhere". It's NOT. Maybe he thinks that position will cost him the central and southern part of the state, but who really knows?

I don't trust him. I still think he's a Republican. Great that he can probably beat another Republican, but where does that really leave us? Still with a Republican in everything but his position on this criminal war.

I'm still wrestling with this problem as I prepare to head to the VA polls in the morning. I can't stomach the site of George Allen and really want him defeated in November.

[Stinky The Clown]

6. I understand your sentiment ....... but does the idea that Webb's

candidacy could turn out to be better for the larger party help you any?

Not challenging ... just asking .... which was the real point of this thread.

[stoxx]

8. Can DeLay tell the West Coast from the East Coast?

I am new to this board, so if someone with thread-starter access can copy this and make a new thread it would be appreciated.

On the Republican side in Northern VA, there is a primary to select someone to run against Moran for the VA 8th district. This evening from another bulletin board:

My old lady and I agree to disagree on (most) things political. Therefore, we have been receiving all kinds of telephone calls this weekend in the runup to the northern VA primaries on June 13th. Within the last hour, someone purporting to be Tom DeLay said he was calling because he had registered and voted (absentee?) for Mark Ellmore (one of the candidates running in the Republican primary for Congress).

However, DeLay said he had registered in Northern CALIFORNIA.

Was senility one of the factors in his downfall?

Or is this instead an attempt by someone to do dirty-trick politicking?

[vademocrat]

11. Well, Husb - your argument was the deciding factor for me today -

I voted for Webb, mostly in order to defeat Allen in November. Here's what I emailed my family (all voting democrats!) after voting this am -

After much mental turmoil, I ended up voting for Webb. Last week I'd changed my mind from Webb to Miller because of an email from Webb's campaign smearing Miller as a "Northern VA liberal". In the end though I couldn't reconcile Miller's support of "vapor trails" and electronic voting plus his strong support of technical outsourcing and lack of support for labor unions (how you can be a liberal democrat and not support labor unions is beyond me...). My initial reaction of Miller as a corporate democrat was too strong to overcome in the end. I hope I haven't voted for a DINO (democrat in name only)!

The "Northern VA liberal" slur really got to me last week especially since I was born and raised a Northern VA liberal!

Thanks for your thoughtful rationale - it helped me to refocus my eyes on the prize: a Democratic Senate in November!

[Stinky The Clown]

12. I'm glad you found this thread helpful .....

..... but funnily enough, I started it not to try to sway people one way or another as much as to explore the issue of strategy versus principle.

I'm personally glad, however, that Webb won. I'm on the strategy side of the equation.

[carrowsboy]

13. Interesting

I voted Miller cause I figure we'll never win if we keep running & voting Republican candidiates who call themselves Democrats.