Bilbray by 1.07% over Busby..

[espera17]

As per http://electionpredictions.blogspot.com :

House (incumbent retiring):

Margin of last three polls avg (SUSA 45-45 tie, 47-45 to Bilbray): -1 x .7 = -.7

Ratio of money advantage x5 capped at 20 (1.82 to Busby): 9.14 x .1 = .91

District partisan leaning (44.52-29.70 to GOP): -14.82 x .15 = -2.23

Generic Congressional ballot polling (Newsweek 50-31 to DEM): 19 x .05 = .95

Prediction: Busby will lose the special election to Bilbray by 1.07%.

We better mobilize in the 50th, pulling off a win here will greatly strengthen our chances.

[rodeodance]

1. oh NO!!

[nadinbrzezinski]

2. I tink it is WELL WITHIN REACH

but alas I am not in the 50th, that said, EVRRYBODY GO VOTE

[aquart]

3. When did residency stop being a requirement?

[espera17]

19. it is a req.

misquote

[The_Casual_Observer]

4. Close enough to steal.

[robinlynne]

5. if you go to moveon.pac or . org they ahve a calling campaign to get out

the vote for busby. you sign up, and tehy give you phone numbers ot call. It's easy. i've been doing it.

[Cha]

6. This is INCENTIVE

to GET OUT & VOTE FOR BUSBY!

[DavidDvorkin]

7. This is bad news

I hope I'm wrong, but I expect to be depressed about this race tomorrow night. I had let myself hope there was a chance of a pickup.

[Awsi Dooger]

8. That +19 generic seems too high

That may be Newsweek but it's not the consensus, which would be many points lower than that.

Still, I'm not conceding anything. Why not win the unlikely ones for a change? Imagine the energy around here if Busby pulls this off.

[gasperc]

9. damn the torpedos, full speed ahead

keep working folks, push push push

we got the GOP to spend $10million to try and hold this seat, we can and will win this thing, imagine how much they will have to spend to hold 15 seats or 50 seats???

That'll be $100-$500 million or more so keep pushing with every last fiber in your being

[Capn Sunshine]

10. 1% is a challenge we can fix

That's like 200 people. Don't you think we can get out an extra 200 people by GOTV efforts? That we are this close is just miraculous; Bush won this district by double digits in'04.

[Adelante]

11. Damn, that's close nt

[dorktv]

12. When is this election? I want to walk.

[RUMPLEMINTZ]

13. Today

[DeaconBlues]

14. I hope voter motivation helps win the day

Bilbray may have the numbers when it comes to polls, but who will motivate people do actually get off their butts and go to the polls? Hopefully, the Democrats will be pissed enough to win the get out the vote effort.

[espera17]

15. site now projects bilbray by 1.54%

and most political analysts doubt Busby can pull it off.

[AX10]

16. Get out there and VOTE.

If Democrats can't win in this environment, I don't know when they will win again.

[snowbear]

17. You have to consider the area though..

If Ohio RETHUGS can pick someone like Mean Jean Schmidt over Major Paul Hackett.. you KNOW that they don't care about the person as much as retaining (( power )) at all costs.

[espera17]

18. i doubt they can pull it off

its such a republican area and i don't think the dems are capitalizing on republican failures.