Swann's big test: Phila. suburbs (Why he probably won't win - with pics)

[LynneSin]

Look at those numbers - Rendell gets a boost from 5 counties with a 500k vote lead which means any opponent needs a pretty massive boost with the rest of the state and unfortunately there just isn't enough in the Pittsburgh region to make that up!

http://www.philly.com/mld/inquirer/news/local/states/pennsylvania/counties/philadelphia_county/philadelphia/14720140.htm?source=rss&channel=inquirer_philadelphia

Swann's big test: Phila. suburbs
Gov. Rendell swept the region in '02. To chip away at his lead, the GOP candidate has a big hurdle to clear.
By Thomas Fitzgerald
Inquirer Staff Writer


Lynn Swann burst through the doors of the service department waiting room at Norco Chrysler-Jeep in Pottstown, flashing a megawatt smile.

"Is the service good here?" Swann asked. "Do they clean the cars when they're done? No complaints? Good."

In his wake, the customers grinned as they realized who had just dazzled them: the ex-Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver with four Super Bowl rings; the familiar face and voice from years of ABC college football broadcasts; and the man who also happens to be the Republican nominee for governor.

Swann's visit to western Montgomery County last week - including the stop at a supporter's car dealership, a trolley ride, a tour of a recreation center, and a stump speech - was one of his first public forays into the Philadelphia suburbs, the traditionally Republican region whose swing voters are credited with electing Gov. Rendell in 2002.

Not even his staunchest supporters say they expect Swann to carry the suburbs.

But to have any chance of winning, Republican strategists know he must hold down Rendell's vote in Bucks, Chester, Delaware and Montgomery Counties while outperforming the typical GOP candidate in the city. Polls show that the former mayor of Philadelphia remains hugely popular in the region, but less so in the central and western parts of the state.

Nervous Republican leaders have grumbled that Swann's campaign has been slow-starting - that he has shown an unfamiliarity with issues and has not mixed it up enough with voters, especially in the Southeast. During a meeting in Philadelphia with county chairmen and party fund-raisers Tuesday, Swann pledged to spend more time in the region.

To chip away at Rendell's base, Republicans say they will rely on Swann's charisma and the voter anger shown in the recent primary upsets of legislative leaders.


<<<<<snip>>>>>>

Rendell media consultant Neil Oxman said the campaign was seeking to exploit a huge cash advantage - about 8-to-1, according to the latest reports - to build up the governor's image while Swann could not yet afford to fight back. The Southeast region is the strategic bulwark, Oxman said.

"We want to build the wall as high as we can here," Oxman said. "You have to spend $500,000 to have any kind of impact on Philadelphia TV... . In the city and the mid- and near suburbs, Ed is just going to croak Lynn Swann."

++++++++++++++++

You know, one of the reasons why Rick Santorum's opponent in 2000 lost -- Ron Klink didn't have the same war chest as Santorum and decided to scale back on the Philly campaign because of the high cost of running a campaign there. Although Klink won the Philly counties, there wasn't enough of a gap in the Philly vote to make up for the rest of the state. Democrats are learning that you need the philly vote if you want to win statewide and you need a massive turnout of voters to ensure victory. I've worked a couple of Philly campaigns including Rendell, Gore & Kerry. Basically dem leaders will flood the Philly region with volunteers in order to get out the vote

[Dogmudgeon]

1. Swann has an even bigger hurdle now

He has been coming off as being a stupid and shallow tool of his financial backers and the PA GOP.

So Lynn Swann is a "nice guy". That's not enough to qualify someone to be the Governor. Ed Rendell certainly has rough edges, but he's been the best Governor we've had in decades, and he was one of the truly great Mayors of Philadelphia.

Lynn Swann is a formula candidate -- the GOP thinks all it needs is an attractive ex-jock to promise tax cuts, and they can glide in to power. They haven't recognized that Pennsylvania has experienced a seismic shift in the past decade. It's no longer, as James Carville once said, Philadelphia in the East, Pittsburgh in the West, and Alabama in the middle. It's become its own polity, and largely after suffering under 30 years of Republican divide-and-rule nonsense.

--p!

[LynneSin]

2. The fact that Rendell has outraised money 8-1

almost makes Mike Fisher look like he was a viable candidate against Rendell. I truly believe that the PAGOP felt that Rendell was going to be a major hurdle to beat in 2006 and allowed Swann to go unopposed in the primaries. Scranton was smart to pull out of the republican race. Although he would have been a bigger challenge to Rendell, I think Scranton has a better chance in 2010 when the governor seat is wide open for the pickings. Swann is not the future of the Pennsylvania republican party. He is merely a tool used to show a bit of fight while they focus on bigger issues like holding control of the state house & senate

[Dogmudgeon]

3. You said it!

Though I doubt that the PA GOP will be able to hold the House and Senate without the kind of white-knuckled fight that gives younger scrappers anxiety disorders. The loss of Jubelierer and Brightbill to a couple of base-cons has already shaken them up quite a bit.

If there is as much of a change in national politics over the next four years as I think there will be, there will be a large and well-qualified pool of Democratic candidates for governor.

I might even be persuaded to run. :)

--p!
Pigwidgeon 2010.
Progressive Democrat for Governor.
Broke since 2002.
So he doesn't need your money, you jive-ass suckas!

[Penndems]

4. Swann's got another problem, too

Bob Asher, the MontCo RNC Committeeman who green-lighted Swann's nomination and is a campaign advisor, is a convicted felon. Asher is in tight with Tom Ridge, which would explain Ridge's joint appearances with Swann. This was brought up over at keystonepolitics.com

Link:
http://www.bobasher.net/

[ncrainbowgrrl]

5. Oh this gets better and better...

Can someone please pass the popcorn. I like mine with extra salt.
:popcorn: