If Clark wins Tennessee and Edwards wins VA next Tuesday ??

[kentuck]

Could that change the momentum that Kerry had captured? Has he lost some of his invincibility? It is difficult to argue that John Kerry is not presently the front-runner. He is. He beat everybody handily. In seven races, he had 5 firsts, 1 second, and 1 third. It don't get much better than that. All the other candidates running must be considered underdogs at this time. However, Clark could do very well in Tennessee, as could Edwards. And the same goes for the state of VA. A win by either Clark or Edwards in either one of those states will give them more credibility in the South, if you consider OK a southern state, which I do. Don't get your hopes up because there is at least one more round...

(edited for Tuesday)

[Jack_Dawson]

1. CLARK CLARK CLARK CLARK CLARK

Sorry I have a typing problem.

[DjTj]

2. That would definitely chip into the "electability" image...

...Clark and Edwards need to show that the South is their backyard. I think they can turn up the heat on Kerry a little bit. This fight is just beginning...

[mikehiggins]

3. If Kerry loses either or both, it will begin to shake the foundations

of his inevitable success. It doesn't take much for a frontrunner to come down hard. Ask Dean.

Now that Jo-mentum is out of the running things seem to become more clear.

[fairfaxvadem]

4. Virginia is next Tuesday, not Saturday

And among Democrats here in Northern Va, I've encountered more Kerry or more Dean supporters than Clark or Edwars, although they are out there.

Sure will be interesting. Heaven knows what the rest of VA will do.

[windansea]

5. I thought Michigan Maine Wash on saturday

[kentuck]

8. Sorry...I think you are right...

I wish Tennessee and VA were on Saturday... :)

[Nicholas_J]

11. Kerry has a big lead in Michigan (37 percent)

According to polls done a few days ago. Edward, and Dean are at 14 %, Clark at 10 percent.

And polls in Washington state done locally have him with a good lead in the Washington Caucuses on Saturday.

He is a good deal ahead of both Edwards and Clark who are both at 17 percent in Virginia, while Kerry is at 32 percent.

In Tennessee, Kerry is at 31 percent, with Clark at 22.

I didnt think much of Kerry's win in New Hampshire, becasue it was on his home ground. I think Kerry just receivedas large a percentage of the S.C. vote as he received in N.H, his own ground.

When I watch any campaign, I dont look to see how well a candidate does where you expect them to do well. But look to see how they do against their competition in areas that are not home turf to either of them.

That is really the only gauge on how well a cnadidate wil do during the nomination process. But it iseven a better indicator of how well they can do against an incumbent during the geeral election. Kerry did massively better in the midwest, and even in the south-west, than he did in New Hampshire, again his own ground. That is a very big indication to which candidate stands a better chance against Bush than winning on ones own home ground. Whoever runs against Bush is going to have to beat him not in the south, or in the west, ot in the east, or in the North, but all over. THe wins over Kerry in the South were not by large enough numbers tocause Kerry problems in the South. But his wins in the other campaigns today were significant enough for these wins to cause the Bush machine some serious concerns today.

[roguevalley]

6. I hate primaries called early. That's what the thugs do.

[Renew Deal]

7. Kerry is winning VA

last I saw. I think TN is up for grabs

[Nicholas_J]

9. Kerry has a significant lead

in Virginia, as of the most recent poll take there on the 29th, adn has a good lead in Tennessee right now as well. So far all of the polls have been rather accurate this far in advance, and whil it would be possible for Clark to pass him in Tennessee, Kerry's lead in Virginia over Edwards and Clark is rather large:

Virginia:

Kerry 32%
Clark 17%
Edwards 17%
Dean 14%
Sharpton 9%
other 6%
undecided 5%

Survey USA 1/27-29 MoE 3.3%

Kerry 31%
Clark 22%
Edwards 13%
Dean 7%
Lieberman 6%
Sharpton 3%
Kucinich 0%
undecided 18%

Mason Dixon 1/28-29 MoE 5%

http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/CurrentPolls.htm

The polls from both SUSA and Mason Dixon were pretty accurate in predicting both S.C. and Oklahoma, and so far this year, the polls have been rather accurate on the whole in predicting the results of all of the nine races so far, so there is really not much chance of them being off base now.

Edwards won on his own ground, that was expected. Same thing For Clark in Oklahoma.

Virginia is another case. Far less rural. Far more like a Northern State than a Southern one, particualryl in the Democratic rich Northern Area of the state, much more like Washington D.C. than.

I think Edwards and Clark may now do a little better in both those states than expected, but I dont think they will beat Kerry. Kerry is very well organized in Virginia, and Edwards may not be able to match the air time that Kerry has just started to spend on in Washington D.C. to reach Northern Virginia. Then in Tennessee, Harold Ford has been stomping for Kerry for the better part of the last eight months, which accounts for Kerry's polling in that state. I would not have expected Kerry to be doing as well as he is in Tennessee as of the latest poll there(about 4 days ago) I looked at the results a dozen times and didnt get it and then I remembered Ford. With a weel left, it is not likely that either Clark or Edwards will get enough bounce to win, as what happened to night was not an unexpected surprise. But they may do better than the current polls indicate.

[DjTj]

12. Edwards has made up more ground than that...

...in Iowa and Oklahoma.

Edwards will own southern rural Virginia. It will be interesting to see what happens in NoVa.

[jmaier]

10. I suspect that Kerry will win VA

and possibly TN with Clark and Edwards splitting the 'opposition' vote. I'm a strong Clark supporter but neither Clark nor Edwards have much of a chance of derailing Kerry when they must crawl over the other guy to do it.