If Dean doesn't win by Super Tuesday, he's dead.

[Renew Deal]

Look at this schedule. I don't think there is a single March 9 state Dean can win. Looking at this, I think there is almost no way Dean can pull this off.


March 9

Florida
Louisiana
Mississippi
Texas


February 7

Michigan
Washington

February 8
Maine

February 10
Tennessee
Virginia

February 14
District of Columbia
Nevada

February 17
Wisconsin

February 24
Hawaii
Idaho
Utah

March 2
California
Connecticut
Georgia
Maryland
Massachusetts
Minnesota
New York
Ohio
Rhode Island
Vermont

March 8 American Samoa

March 9
Florida
Louisiana
Mississippi
Texas

March 13
Kansas

March 16 Illinois

March 20
Alaska
Guam
Wyoming

April 13
Colorado

April 17
Virgin Islands

April 27
Pennsylvania

May 4
Indiana
North Carolina

May 11
Nebraska
West Virginia

May 18
Arkansas
Kentucky
Oregon

June 1
Alabama
South Dakota

June 6
Puerto Rico

June 8
Montana
New Jersey

[dobak]

1. He has to win in Michigan or WA

He may not drop out, but he will cease to be a contender

[Hoppin_Mad]

2. WE aren't dropping out ! Deal with it ! -nt-

[Renew Deal]

6. Does it matter?

:shrug:

[Guaranteed]

3. Before NH, if Dean didn't win, he was dead.

Before today, if Dean didn't win, he was dead.

Well, guess what? He's not dead. Dean is a phenomenon. And as much as people bag on him, they know that he's a real leader, they know that he's right, and they know that they owe the presidency to him. That's why he ain't dead.

[mitchum]

9. "...they owe the presidency to him"???!!!

But, I thought Kerry was the one with the sense of entitlement

[Guaranteed]

25. Kerry's the one with the sense of entitlement, but none of the

cobbles.

[Renew Deal]

12. I think Dean is finished

believe me. But I am being practical and also giving us something to talk about.

[Guaranteed]

26. It ain't over till Dean says it's over. nt

[Renew Deal]

28. What does that really mean?

He can sit there and finish 3rd, 4th, 5th forever. He's like Kucinich in that he won't drop out no matter what happens.

[mitchum]

35. Christ, please don't smear Kucinich like that!

[RummyTheDummy]

A phenomenon?

Gee, one would think a "phenomenon" would ring the victory bell at least once, maybe twice in an election cycle.

I guess the bar has been lowered. Howard isn't your dad's phenomenon.

[Guaranteed]

27. Dean is all people talk about.

He made this race.

[Renew Deal]

31. I think his fizzle is the phenomenon

and that's why people keep talking.

[The Magistrate]

20. Gov. Dean Is A Spent Force, Mr. Looney

[Guaranteed]

30. Mr. Magistrate,

the reports of Dean's death have been greatly exaggerated.

We'll see what happens between Kerry, Edwards and Clark in the next few days.

[theboss]

42. We owe him the presidency?!?!?!?!?

Dude. What the hell?

[Name removed]

4. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Maddy McCall]

5. None on March 9, none on Feb 10, none on Feb 24...

His only hope is to pick up a couple of New England state on February 2 and March 2.

Carrying nothing today will kill his campaign. If he thinks losing today was sound strategy, I think primaries/caucuses after today will prove him wrong.

[Egnever]

8. Nevada is his bank on it!

[Renew Deal]

11. Isn't Dean on the wrong side of the Yucca mountain issue

and/or hasn't he flip flopped bigtime on it?

[mitchum]

13. shhh...

[Maddy McCall]

17. He absolutely is...wanted to ship waste from Vermont to another state

(environmental racism) as governor, but was shot down. Clark has pledged to cease Yucca Mountain the instant his butt hits the leather seat in the Oval Office.

[MercutioATC]

23. That "environmental racism" charge is totally without merit.

It's ben discussed here before...MANY times.

[Maddy McCall]

29. Wellstone is the person who charged Dean with environmental racism

I guess you think Wellstone was wrong and without merit?

[MercutioATC]

47. Well, then,in this case Wellstone was wrong. Here's why:

Maine and Vermont had reactors and were looking for a more secure place to store nuclear waste. Maine, Vermont and Texas entered into a contract whereby Maine and Vermont would send their nuclear waste to a yet-to-be constructed repository in Texas in exchange for money. Texas assumed the responsibility for choosing a site and constructing the repository.

The Texas Legislature formed a commission tasked with recommending a site for the repository. This commission chose a site near Sierra Blanca, a poor, mostly Hispanic town that's already hist to a large solid waste dump (solid HUMAN waste).

The Federal government subsequently found the site to be inappropriate, mostly for geological reasons and its close proximity to Mexico. The plan was abandoned.

Maine and Vermont attempted to be responsible with their nuclear waste by seeking a safe, secure storage facility. They had NO input as to the site - Texas made that decision. In addition, Maine and Vermont knew that there was a built-in safeguard...the necessity of Federal approval. If the site wasn't adequate, it wouldn't pass muster. Therefore, WHY would they become involved in the site selection process?

An analogy:

When you have the oil changed in your car, you pay a fee and trust that the service station will dispose of the oil in a responsible manner. In fact, you bear no responsibility to look into the disposal methods because 1) the station bears the responsibility for disposal and 2) the government regulates which forms of disposal are proper and which are not.

Maine, Vermont and Texas made an agreement to accomplish something that's generally recognized as a good thing (centralizing nuclear waste repositories). Texas failed to fulfill its end of the contract. The safeguards (that Maine and Vermont were well aware of) worked and nobody got hurt.

In what remote way then is Dean guilty of "environmental racism"?

[NashVegas]

43. Environmental Racism?

Hey, are you the guy ABC caught on tape doing push-polls?

[Maddy McCall]

44. Um, no I'm a historian who actually teaches a college course that includes

a section on it, which, by the way, has been a term in use since the 1960s. You know who actually popularized the term? Wellstone.

[Egnever]

19. He changed his position on it from when he was govenor

People arent overjoyed with his yucca mountain stand but find his stance now to be acceptable. This is a big service union state and his support here is strong.

[Maddy McCall]

22. He HAD to change his position because he faced formidable opposition

[Egnever]

36. From who?

I was at the democratic convention here in nevada there was no competition.

[Maddy McCall]

40. Do you know about Vermont wanting to transport waste to

a small, poor town on the Texican border? The Latino community raised holly hell, as did environmentalists in Dean's own state. Welstone fought the plan. The plan was nixed as a result.

You see, it isn't just about his position(s) on Yucca Mountain on the federal stage, it is his state environmental record that is of concern. It isn't very pretty.

[MercutioATC]

46. Do you know that Dean had NO input as to the location of the site?

Maine and Vermont had reactors and were looking for a more secure place to store nuclear waste. Maine, Vermont and Texas entered into a contract whereby Maine and Vermont would send their nuclear waste to a yet-to-be constructed repository in Texas in exchange for money. Texas assumed the responsibility for choosing a site and constructing the repository.

The Texas Legislature formed a commission tasked with recommending a site for the repository. This commission chose a site near Sierra Blanca, a poor, mostly Hispanic town that's already hist to a large solid waste dump (solid HUMAN waste).

The Federal government subsequently found the site to be inappropriate, mostly for geological reasons and its close proximity to Mexico. The plan was abandoned.

Maine and Vermont attempted to be responsible with their nuclear waste by seeking a safe, secure storage facility. They had NO input as to the site - Texas made that decision. In addition, Maine and Vermont knew that there was a built-in safeguard...the necessity of Federal approval. If the site wasn't adequate, it wouldn't pass muster. Therefore, WHY would they become involved in the site selection process?

An analogy:

When you have the oil changed in your car, you pay a fee and trust that the service station will dispose of the oil in a responsible manner. In fact, you bear no responsibility to look into the disposal methods because 1) the station bears the responsibility for disposal and 2) the government regulates which forms of disposal are proper and which are not.

Maine, Vermont and Texas made an agreement to accomplish something that's generally recognized as a good thing (centralizing nuclear waste repositories). Texas failed to fulfill its end of the contract. The safeguards (that Maine and Vermont were well aware of) worked and nobody got hurt.

In what remote way then is Dean guilty of "environmental racism"?

[BruinAlum]

7. Dean was counting on wins in MI and WI to make up for skipping

tonight. A month ago he had a 16 point lead in MI and now is 40 points behind Kerry. He's sinking like a rock in WI too.

There is no way he's going to last until Super Tuesday. He has no wins in sight. Look for an announcement after his meeting with union leaders this Thursday.

[ShadowCabinet]

18. Why don't we try something novel?

And let the voters decide.

If Dean does win in Wisconsin or even doesn't win but goes on an picks-up a big state like CA or NY, the momentum pendulum could swing back.

Super-Tuesday is really the make or break time. Should things not turn around by then, I don't thing this "scavenging" for delegates strategy will mean anything come the convention.

The real factors for Dean and the other campaigns is money and who can hold out. Dean still has his core supporters who keep contributing even when he loses.

[TexasPatriot]

10. Not Fair

if he does well this weekend - if Kerry's air of electability is broken by tonight - then he could certainly play for delegates in Texas and Florida... and then move on to fight Kerry in other states later.

Now if he isnt going to do well this weekend it starts getting harder.

[Renew Deal]

15. Right

I think it's fair. If he doesn't win by March 2, it's over. We agree

[TexasPatriot]

41. he wouldnt necessarily have to 'win'

he could just do really well... close 2nds are good enough - and would get him into play in CA.

[NNN0LHI]

14. Anyone seen the most recent polling data from American Samoa? n/t

[Renew Deal]

16. lol

And Guam

[roguevalley]

21. Crap. No Alaska? American Samoa but no Alaska?!?

RV, a Clarkie for Clark. ;)

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

24. Nothing like a tauntung antagonizing thread title

I have had my issues with Dean but the pouring of salt in wounds is not graceful.

Dean did NOT spend money in the states tonight where he on some occasions did better than some candidates who did.

[slinkerwink]

45. thank you for saying that!

:hugs:

[Westegg]

32. Oh, I get it now!

Dean's planning a "Montana Surprise" on June 8. After that---you'll see. It'll be "in the bag." Wow. How clever.

[foo_bar]

33. in his words

"Not only are we going to New Hampshire (2nd)... we're going to South Carolina (5th) and Oklahoma (5th) and Arizona (3rd) and North Dakota (3rd) and New Mexico (3rd)..."

He probably singled out those states for a reason.

[Skip Intro]

34. Dean HAS to stay in, how else will Kerry and Edwards know what to say?

March 9 will look a lot different after March 2.

:D

[ShadowCabinet]

38. More important, where else will they steal their campaign themes?

Given the wholesale lifting of themes that Dean raised when no one else was articulating them, where else will they come up with their ideas?

[Skip Intro]

39. YES! That's what I was trying to say!

;)

[indigo32]

37. People on this thread are forgetting

that Dean has pulled all his advertising. He's raising money and I'd expect that he'll put new ads up.