Is BBV going to put Kerry in the White House?

[milkyway]

I know there was a discussion about this earlier, but this is an important issue that should not just fade away. I believe there is a strong possibility that the New Hampshire vote totals were fraudulent. It's possible that Howard Dean won the state outright.

Kerry beat Dean by only 1.5% in NH when computers were not doing the counting. Two different types of computer balloting were used: the notorious Diebold and ES&S. Hand ballots were also used. Here's the rundown:

Hand: Kerry 34.9% Dean 33.3%
Diebold: Kerry 40.1% Dean 25.4%
ES&S: Kerry 37.6% Dean 27.9%

A little more than two-thirds of the ballots were counted by Diebold computers. The hand ballots were used primarily in rural areas--where Kerry was expected to run the strongest! Yet he won by only 1.5%. If Dean was this close in the rural areas, you would think he would win the state outright.

Here's a link:

http://www.livejournal.com/users/explodedview/

The biggest evidence for me was the media election coverage that night. When the polls closed, CNN and others came on and immediately told us the race was too close to call. They were basing this on exit polls. The big problem with exit polls is that they are almost always very accurate! That's why people don't like them--they don't want to be told the results before the polls are closed.

As the NH election coverage began, the media could hardly contain their excitement with how close the race was going to be. It seemed Dean had a good chance of winning. When real vote totals starting coming in strongly for Kerry, Judy Woodruff remarked that they can't be reflective of what the final vote totals would be (she knew what the exit polls were saying). She speculated that it must be rural areas with fewer voters reporting their votes before the more heavily populated areas. But as the night went on, the vote percentages hardly changed. The exit polls were way off.

But exit polls are never substantially different from the actual vote totals. I felt like I was watching Florida 2000 all over again. It's very suspicious when exit polls and actual vote totals are so different. I wonder what Jean Shaheen has to say about these ballot discrepancies.

It's very possible Dean won NH outright, but at the least may have lost by only a few points. If that were the case, the dynamics of this race would be completely different. Apparently, there is a paper trail that could be used for a recount.

[blm]

1. Yeah. BushInc WANTS Kerry to win so they could have AWOLBush as an issue

to be hanging around their necks for the next ten months.


Oy.

[Wonk]

6. Bush's Skull & Bones nickname was/is "Temporary". nt

[tritsofme]

2. Sometimes candidates just LOOSE

Everything isn't a conspiracy.

[BurtWorm]

5. Here's a very good chance to demonstrate the importance of paper trails.

These machines in NH have them. The spreads between the hand and ballot counting are...strange, especially considering the closeness of the polling that day, with one (LA Times) having Dean ahead by 1 or 2 points. It would make me feel better--probably a lot of Dean people feel better--if the electronic vote was verified by the paper.

[mitchum]

3. Wow! From a blog! An unimpeachable source!

nonsense

[mb7588a]

4. That early excitement

was also based on the outlying Zogby poll that had Dean within 3% the day before the primary. All other pre-primary day polls had Kerry with double digit leads.

I'm not sure this story floats. Do you have information on the geography of the different systems used? The demographics and exit polls from those polls? Without an in depth precinct by precinct investigation, I don't know that the disparity between electronic and other is that significant.

[BurtWorm]

12. Some are saying that the discrepancy has to do with a town-country split.

The electronic counting was done in urban areas in the south (nearer to MA); the paper ballots were from the rural areas. Southern NH is allegedly wealthier and more conservative. It's possible that there is that great a gap between the town and country in NH. It's possible that the rural counties had fewer ballots to cast and count so the totals were closer. It's also possible that the electronic counting (by Diebold and ES&S) is fucked up.

[John_H]

7. Damn it! Rove told them to set the machines to DEAN!!! Wait...

Wait. OMG! They gave CLARK votes to Kerry! Clark really won! He won I tell you!! Fucking BBV stealing the election from CLARK!!

[hedgetrimmer]

8. if you question the general one must question the primary...

[BurtWorm]

14. Democrats care about BBV (unless a Dem benefits from it, of course).

Then they're outraged that anyone might bring up such a loony conspiracy theory! ;)

[For PaisAn]

9. I don't discount what you are saying

These people are capable of anything. But one correction. BBV may get Kerry the Democratic nomination if there is any validity to your post but it will not get him the White House. That would be saved for Bush.

Either way, the American people are being manipulated and it's working, as usual.

[Lori Price CLG]

10. If they can't get Bush in there, they will have to go to plan 'B'...

Diebold will decide *this* election, that's why Bush-Rove only needs to 'put on a show'. Should they be forced, politically, to 'let' a Democrat win, the Reichwing terrorists running this country will never let Dr. Dean win.

Lori Price

[Skip Intro]

11. Amazing that merely raising the issue earns you scorn

"How can you possibly believe anything other than what you have been told."

Its not like BBV is and has been a huge issue, especially on this board. Its not like the media called a certain result from an election, later to report that the actual result was different. Its not like the very real possiblility that bush stole florida thru rigged voting machines (and other slimeball tactics) has been discussed, even agreed to by many people.

(For that matter, its not like the media made a huge deal out of Gore's "sigh" incident, playing it over and over, and Dean's "scream" playing it over and over, both times obscuring the message of each candidate.)

Nah, forget those stats from NH. Forget that the Zogby and ARG polls showing a Dean surge just before the election. Forget the official results not agreeing with the exit polls, confounding even the news anchors. CNN has said Kerry won by a large margin. Weren't you watching?

You can't ask such questions. What are you, some kind of nut?

[maggrwaggr]

13. geez, folks, did any of you actually look at the link?

I just studied it and it's very disturbing.

The vote totals only have this HUGE discrepancy between Kerry and Dean.

The differences are very very minor between any of the other candidates.

Are you not worried about BBV when your candidate benefits from it?

This is supposed to be Democracy, folks, not "my guy won so I don't care how".

If BBV voting fraud is a reality, we are all deeply deeply fucked. And this whole election thing is just one big deception to keep us thinking we're in a democracy.

[DemBones DemBones]

16. Some say voting is and always has been "one big

deception to keep us thinking we're in a democracy. " I often find myself agreeing with that thought, thinking it's all a charade.

[maggrwaggr]

18. "if voting could actually change anything, it wouldn't be legal"

I heard that one the other day. Starting to think it's true.

[loudsue]

21. Bingo, maggrwaggr....

That is precisely why BBV is THE ISSUE in this country today. It does appear that there have been rigged machines -- LOCALLY -- for generations. Now, they can rig or hack 'em by the thousands, in the flash of an eye....an eye that never sees what happened.

And now, the stakes are higher...global. People all across the globe will die because of our rigged machines. Power corrupts. Absolute power corrupts absolutely.

If the majority of people vote for nothing but neocons by A TRUE and ACTUAL vote count, I'll live with it. But...it doesn't appear to be the case that people's votes are counting. There are way too many holes in the system, and those holes are being exploited in terrible ways.

Buy a copy of Black Box Voting by Bev Harris, and TAKE IT (personally) to every state and federal representative and senator in your district. Talk it up at your local Dem precinct meetings, Kiwanis club meetings, Homeowner's Association meetings, Sunday School classes....everywhere there are people. The supermarket, the bookstore, clerks, gas stations, book club meetings...everywhere. This needs to get as much publicity as humanly possible.

This system needs to be held as close to accountability as any bank transaction, and equally as auditable. We don't have much time before the November elections.

It's either activism now, or revolution later. Activism isn't as bloody.

:kick::kick::kick::kick::kick::kick:

[Dookus]

29. except this ISN'T bbv....

it's optical scan paper ballots.

[maggrwaggr]

15. gotta keep kicking this one with all the hooopla

:kick:

[creativelcro]

17. OLD News... Please read this older thread.

Cannot believe people keep rediscovering the wheel...



http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=215244#215492

[maggrwaggr]

19. Yeah? Well some of us actually have lives outside of DU

unlike, seemingly, yourself, who seems to have every link ever posted memorized. :)

[BurtWorm]

20. Can you summarize in somewhat plainer English the thrust of that?

:dunce: Duh, t'anks!

[creativelcro]

23. Bottom line

is that, that initial analysis showed that towns with optical scanners went for Kerry significantly more than towns with manual counts (relative to Dean).
The pattern was OBVIOUS just by looking at the distribution of optical machines in NH and at the pattern of Kerry wins. That is why I did a correlation and posted the raw data.
The big towns that went with Kerry are the Southern ones, bordering MA. The ones that went with Dean are the Western ones (around Dartmouth, I think). I don't know if the towns that went with Kerry tend to be wealthier and more conservative (wealthier = they can purchase optical scan machines) than the ones that went with Dean. I did a quick analysis taking into account income. That factor alone does not seem to explain the pattern. The thing to do is to get other demographic variables and throw them in the multiple regression analysis to see if the pattern still cannot be explained by these variables. Too busy these days for that. But it is CRUCIAL to look at the raw data (get them from the DU thread I posted above)... Please look at the raw data before jumping to conclusions...
Thanks.

[BurtWorm]

26. I don't have Excel on my home PC, so I can't crunch numbers,

and I'm still not quite getting you. Are you suggesting that the data should be analyzed and thoroughly cross-tabulated before the paper-trail ballots with the actual votes on them be looked at?

My feeling is that it would be useful for paper-trail advocates to double check this vote. It would be good to test the system. I wonder if NH is planning to do that anyway, or if they're just going to let the paper rot because of the expense.

[George_Bonanza]

28. Just to point out

Kerry won both the lower and upper class, he won both the high school graduates and college graduates, he won among the union households, he won both the religious and non-religious, he won both the "angry at" and "somewhat satisfied with" regarding the Bush administration, he won both the for and against civil unions crowd, he won among the people who opposed the Iraq war, and he won in both industrial and rural areas.

"I don't know if the towns that went with Kerry tend to be wealthier and more conservative (wealthier = they can purchase optical scan machines)"

I just thought this was a snide remark, hence my reply.

[yellowdawgdem]

22. nothing's off the table these days

If the bbv were going to change the voting tabulations in Kerry's favor, wouldn't they do it by a smaller margin of votes? I mean, they wouldn't wanna get caught, right?

[Eloriel]

27. Smaller vote margins trigger recounts -- what they learned in FL

in 2000. Remember?

That's why the stunning "upsets" in Georgia in 2002 -- results versus pre-election polling just days before the election.

[yellowdawgdem]

32. hmmm

Yes, but isn't it also true that exit polls can trigger suspicion? I definitely think California was a bbv blowout for Swarzenschnitzel, but with NH, I am inclined to be more reserved. But it certainly is possible that bbv 'helps' whoever pays them the most money.
:shrug:

[milkyway]

24. Again, the exit polls are the key. I only know of one other time the

exit polls were so far off that the media seem bewildered--Florida 2000. Probably 99% of the people on this board believe the Florida vote totals were fraudulent. Why not New Hampshire? I am unfamiliar with the web site I originally linked to, so I can't say with any degree of certainty how accurate their reporting is. But I know exactly how excited the media was when they first came on the air that night. All the exit polls were showing it too close to call. They looked like they were sitting on a stunning comeback story for Dean. Then as the actual results came in they had no idea how to explain them. Is it possible, or even probable, that like Florida, the exit polls were not wrong--the exit polls were correct as usual, and it was the actual vote totals that were wrong!

For anybody who thinks this couldn't happen, I would use the same justification I have used when discussing Florida--control of hundreds of billions of dollars are at stake in a Presidential election. People murder others for a hell of a lot less than that.

BTW, my reference to Shaheen is just pure speculation. I don't know anything more than anybody else here does.

[shance]

25. Not likely. Kerry will be the safe primary winner. Then Bush will beat

due to electronic voting due to the blessed HAVA.

People need to wake up and smell the coffee.

[theboss]

30. Nobody "steals" an election by 13 points

Joe Kennedy would have a men killed if the cheating was that dramatic.

You wait until the 11th hour, find out how many votes you need, and win in a squeaker.

[Dookus]

31. It's worth noting that

this is NOT black-box voting.

It's a paper ballot, marked by the user, then read by a machine.

They're considered quite reliable. All I've seen is a correlation, not a causation. There are a lot of demographic reasons why the candidates would do differently in different precincts - automatically assuming fraud is quite a jump.

Also, most polls before the race had Kerry leading strongly. Why steal a race you're already winning?

[yellowdawgdem]

33. Why would Kerry be preferred

The only possible reason that I could see for republicans wanting Bush to face Kerry would be if they had some good dirt on Kerry that they are holding onto.