Kerry got THIRD in Oklahoma...What does this mean?

[DjTj]

Clark and Edwards are NOT fighting for the same voters. They can both finish ahead of Kerry even when they both compete hard.

What does this mean? Neither Clark nor Edwards need to drop out to compete with Kerry in Tennessee and Virginia. There is more than enough Southern appeal in these two men to fight off that Massachusetts liberal...

[David Dunham]

1. Clark and Edwards will divide the southern vote:JK'll win the rest

[mitchum]

6. Yep!

[abburdlen]

2. Kerry should drop out

otherwise he's spliting the Clark/Edwards vote and giving the nomination to Edwards/Clark

:)

[dolstein]

3. Sorry, but you are wildly off base

Clark or Edwards alone could beat Kerry in Virginia and Tennessee. With both of them in the race, Kerry could still win. He nearly did in Oklahoma. Also, with both of them in the race, neither can afford to contest any races outside of Virginia and Tennessee. So that makes Kerry's task in Michigan and Washington that much easier.

[Maddy McCall]

4. Actually, I disagree...Clark and Edwards ARE attractive to the same voters

I do think, however, that this is a preview of southern primaries.

[killbotfactory]

5. It means Kerry is weak in the south

[Maddy McCall]

8. Exactly.

[xxqqqzme]

7. It means the Sooners

have not been duped by the whorporate media!

[jenk]

9. even if edwards eeked out a victory in oklahoma

and finished 1 or 2% ahead of clark, clark still wouldn't drop out because it would be so close.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

10. I think they might all end up with the same number of delegates.

It was pretty close.

[PVnRT]

11. Did he campaign much in Oklahoma?

I was under the impression that he wasn't going hard after that state.

Given his victories tonight, a third-place in Oklahoma probably won't hurt him yet.

[MAlibdem]

12. No...he didn't

The Democratic Party in OK was angry he didn't pay more attention to the state.

He went on Saturday for a rally in OK City, but all in all it was about what he wanted/deteremined would be fine to get in the state (tho im sure he would have at least preferred 2nd).

[SadEagle]

15. Well, he hardly had time for an OK campaign.

Seeing how Kerry focused exclusively on Iowa for so long (which paid off)

[Mobius]

13. That people in OK are smart

:D

[Nicholas_J]

14. Polls only a few days old

Show Kerry fairly well in the lead of both Edwards and Clark in both Virginian and Tennessee.

A week ago, Kerry was behind Edwards in South Carolina, and Behind Clark in Oklahoma. So far, the polls have been very accurate, a week ahead of time:

2004 Virginia Polls

Survey USA 1/27-29 MoE 3.3%

Kerry 32%
Clark 17%
Edwards 17%
Dean 14%
Sharpton 9%
other 6%
undecided 5%

Survey USA 1/27-29 Moe 3.3%

2004 Tennessee Polls

Mason Dixon 1/28-29 MoE 5%

Kerry 31%
Clark 22%
Edwards 13%
Dean 7%
Lieberman 6%
Sharpton 3%
Kucinich 0%
undecided 18%

http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/CurrentPolls.htm

While both Edwards and Clark did extrmely well in their own backyards, Kerry did not lag far behind either in both states.

THe real test today were the states where neither Kerry, Edwards, or Clark were on their home turf. In these areas's Kerry's lead over both Edwards and Clark was far greater that either Edwards or Clarks lead over Kerry on both their home grounds.

In polls available fo this saturdays elections this is also true:

2004 Michigan Polls

EPIC/MRA 1/20-25 5%

Kerry 37%
Dean 14%
Edwards 14%
Clark 10%
Lieberman 5%
Sharpton 3%
Kucinich 1%
undecided 16%

http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/CurrentPolls.htm

So in polls for lections that are now a week or less away, both in areas that are not in the south, or are border states, the polls that predicted the win's for Edwards in South Carolina, and for Clark in Oklahoma, are both predicting rather large wins for Kerry on Saturday, and next Tuesday. This campaign season, the polls have been strikingly accurate. As a result of how badly they predicted 2000, they have been rather cautious in their method and the heads of the polling organizations have been watching the people who have ben taking the informations like hawks. They do not want a recurrence of 2000,which is what resulted in Zogb being the most popular pollster for the last few years, as he was the only person who predicted Gore winning the popular vote, but losing the electoral college.

In the end, while Clark and Edwards can compete on their own turf, they do not look to be polling anything nealy as well off that turf as Kerry is polling off of that turf. And Edwards did have the same sort of bounce situation coming out of Iowa as Kerry had going for him.
The South is simply going to be a battle ground between Edwards and Clark, while Kerry, will stay tightly behind them. If the polls for Tennessee and Virginia hold up and as is being predicted, Kerry will win several southern states.

Kerry's 2.5 coming in less than 3 points behind Edwards in Oklahoma, and 3 points behind Clark makes Oklahoma a win for Edwards, Clark and Kerry, as the difference in delegates will be nominal, if their will be a differnce in delegates won at all.

I congratulate both Edwards and Clark for their wins on their own ground. But Kerry's positioning in both these states is hardly a loss for a New England Liberal. Virginia and Tennessee are now six full days away. A bounce could help both Edwards and Clark, but I dont beleive that either of these wins will give enough of a bounce to overtake Kerry's lead in Virginia (remember, Kerry just won Virginia's next door neighbor, little Delaware, with 50)percent, and there may be enough bounce for Clark in Tennessee to overtake Kerry there, but I think it might not happen,m iven the emount of time left. Kerry is well ahead in Washington right now, and as soon as that is over, he will likely head straight to Virginia to solidify the lead he has their, leaving Harold Ford to do the bulk of his campaigning in Tennessee. I think if the polling percentages between Kerry and the others in Virginia were smaller, todays results could have more significance there. Both Clark and Edwards have a real chance focusing on Tenessee, as their home states are both relatively near Tennessee.

But again, congratulations to both Edwards and Clark suppoprters.

I have had my eye on Edwards ever since I first became aware of him after the Florida Debacle, when he spoke in Congress, criticising the Supreme Court decision. Wesley Clark has been a great leader for his entire career, and knows how to handle any crisis. I have been follwong his career ever since his appointment as Supreme Copmmander of Nato. I was disapppointed in Clinton for not speaking up more firmly on Clarks behalf when the Pentagon pencil pushers forced him into retirement. The military needed more generals like Clark in the 90's than what was leftover when he left, and are largely responsible for the mess that has occurred in the Pentagon since.After all. Clinton was commander in chief, and could have spoken a bit louder on Clarks behalf. Anyway, we will see what we will see.