NH BBV?: Dean within 2% of Kerry in hand counts, creamed in digital counts

[BurtWorm]

http://www.livejournal.com/users/explodedview/

Kerry Beat Dean in New Hampshire by Only 1.5% When Computers Were Not Doing the Counting



In the New Hampshire Democratic Primary, exit polls, which are seldom far wrong, indicated a very close race. The final vote was not close. A close race would have constituted a win for Dean, given expectations. There is serious reason to be dubious of computerized vote counting systems (see Verified Voting or Black Box Voting for details). Such systems were used in New Hampshire, especially those of Diebold, the company that has attracted the most controversy, so I decided to analyze the New Hampshire Democratic primary vote in terms of who was doing the tabulation. According to the New Hampshire Secretary of State?s office there are three possibilities:



* Some ballots are counted by Diebold machines.
* Some ballots are counted by ES&S machines.
* Some ballots are counted by hand.



Let me note that neither the Diebold nor the ES&S ballots lack a paper trail in this case. These are optical-scan systems, where the voter marks a paper ballot that is subsequently counted by computer. There is, then, the possibility of a recount, but only if the issue is forced, since the election was not considered close enough to mandate an automatic recount. Given the problems demonstrated with Diebold systems and the serious allegations made against ES&S, perhaps such a recount should be pursued. In any case, here are the vote totals and percentages for the big five candidates, grouped by vote tallying method (percentages are percentages of the big five vote, i.e., it does not include the minor candidates)).

...

Follow link to see the difference.

[cthrumatrix]

1. IF the media really wanted to investigate...look at this ..what happened?

this NH result slammed Dean when supposedly it was a "dead heat" pronounced late in the day (6pm)...

I've read enough about BBV...and we all know that the media and "other" do not want Dean...so what gives?

[BurtWorm]

4. Good luck getting Democrats interested in investigating Democratic BBV!

;)

[Trajan]

2. It's magic ...

Diebold Magic ....

[cthrumatrix]

3. Tweey and company should ask about this instead of crowning Kerry

[AndyHammond1970]

5. Does anyone know if Dean's people are looking into this?

eom

[Bombtrack]

6. The GOP would've much rather faced Dean than Kerry

they were frothing at the mouth to face him.

Unless a particular voting machine tamperer that deals to New Hampshire is controlled by the ketchup industry, there is no reason for em to want to hurt Dean

[BurtWorm]

7. You're still left with this peculiar anomaly

"To bring the matter into sharper focus, here are the percentages by which Kerry?s vote exceeded Dean?s, grouped by tallying method."



VotingTechUsed % Margin

Diebold 58.1%
ES&S 35.0%
Hand 4.7%

[nancyharris]

23. You’re still left with THIS particular anomaly

"To bring the matter into sharper focus, here are the percentages by which Dean’s vote exceeded Kerry’s, grouped by tallying method."

VotingTechUsed % Margin
Hand 95.2%

Surely there must be voter fraud going on in the precincts that used “hand” ballots because they are so different than precincts using electronic balloting.

[Mile Hi]

58. Come on

If the GOP REALLY wanted Dean to go against Bush trhen they wouldn't have kept saying he would be easy to beat.

Think about it. Why would the GOP say anything if they REALLY wanted to go up against Dean.

Seems to me they would have kept their mouth shut or said Dean was a good choice then we all would have fallen in line to vote for Dean and they would have gotten their wish.

Now it looks like they will go up against Kerry. The one guy they said they were afraid of.

And another thing why is anyone listening to who the GOP says is easy or tough to beat.

[Lori Price CLG]

8. Well, we need to take it to the streets.

Obviously, the Reichwing is still deciding who wins elections.
:grr:

Revolution, now.....

Lori R. Price
Citizens For Legitimate Government

[HawkerHurricane]

9. earlier thread...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=260553

So, are the Republicans at Diebold trying to get Kerry vs. Bush?
Or is it a DLC plot?
Or is it just that urban areas with Diebold machines went for Kerry and rural areas that hand counted went for Dean?

edited to put correct link in.

[BurtWorm]

10. Apparently there is a paper trail with these machines.

It might be an excellent chance to demonstrate how paper trails work. This vote should be recounted, if possible.

[cthrumatrix]

11. good idea ...recount...and have the media eat crow if it's wrong...and

have the DNC pay for it..since they are probably involved...we've all seen Terry M. wanting to crown Kerry ASAP...he repulses me.

[loudsue]

12. What should we do? Who can request a recount???

:shrug: Can the VOTERS request a recount? :shrug:

I'm concerned the Dean campaign won't want to because it might look like "sour grapes". So, can the VOTERS initiate this? Will the New Hampshire Democrats do it?

Can you New Hampshirites (?) call for this to the Sec. of State, or the State Bd. of Elections?

Let's put the rubber to the road on this.

:kick:

[Eloriel]

13. We have to get the campaign to request recounts, probably

Post the information to the blog. I'm going to be doing so -- and you know they pay more attention when more people talk about the same thing.

This is CRITICALLY IMPORTANT. Please help.

[Andy_Stephenson]

16. I tried to talk to the Dean Camp when they were in town...

Bev Got a BBV book to Dean. They were non plussed. Either they did not care or they did not understand the gravity of the situation.

[foo_bar]

55. by the way, nonplussed means "perplexed" or "bewildered"

not unmoved or apathetic.

[Andy_Stephenson]

99. Thanks

Merriam.

[John_H]

14. That's because those Diebold bastards gave Kerry all Clark's votes!!

Diebold knew everyone would expect them to set the machines to "Dean" like Rove told them so they dressed republican androids in Phish T-Shirts and Berkenstocks and switched all Clark's votes to Kerry. I {i]knew{/i] Clark was really the choice of the people!!!
I demand a re-steal!

[Andy_Stephenson]

15. Yes...New Hampshire was using

uncertified software on it's Diebold System. I talked to Anthony Stevens in the Secretary of State's office last friday and he told me the version they were using. No tinfoil here but...uncertified means uncertified. The only solace I find in New Hampshire is they do keep a paper ballot.

:shrug:

[Adenoid_Hynkel]

17. troubling

i hate to sound like a sore loser, but this needs looked into. the fact that such doubts about the legitmacy of election results can arise is cause enough for BBV machines to be scrapped.

i've never seen an election in which polls have been so off the mark (except Cleland).

can we look forward to a similar come from behin=d for the BFEE come November?

[bigtree]

18. I've haven't heard the Kerry supporters question ballots

I think it stinks like sour grapes and feeds resentments. It is a poison argument that is supported by a (blog?) Or can the poster provide any proof to justify the Blog's assertion that the Dean campaign has cause for a recount?

Proof that doesnt rely merely on percieved anomolies between exit polls (which are notouriously wrong) and the reported vote. I can't understand why, if this is so obvious, why you can't find a substantial source to confirm your suspicions.

Also this is an unconvincing refutation from the blog of the possibility of a higer rural vote for Dean than in the cities which would go far to explain the anomoly.


". . . computerized systems are mostly used in the larger towns in New Hampshire. Can this be attributed to a rural preference for Dean? "

YES! More folks in the rural areas voted for Dean . More voters in the larger towns voted for Kerry. SIMPLE AND BELIEVABLE.

But some would have us follow a goose of a charge of fraud.


Here's something to compute:

The Peter Principle Proven

In case you've ever wondered why ignorance rises to the executive level, here is a simple explanation that is also a mathematical proof:

Knowledge is Power.

Time is Money.

And, as every actuary (with some physics training) knows:

Work
---------- = Power
Time

So, if

Knowledge = Power
and
Time = Money

then through simple substitutions,

Work
---------- = Knowledge
Money

Solving for Money, we get:

Work
-------------- = Money
Knowledge

Thus, If Work is held constant as a positive number (no matter how small!)
Money approaches infinity as Knowledge approaches zero.

What this means is:

All else being equal, the less you know, the more you make

[HawkerHurricane]

19. Scott Adams

Reading increases your knowledge.
Knowledge is power.
Power Corrupts.
Corruption is a crime.
Crime doesn't pay.
If you keep reading, you'll go broke! - Dogbert.

[progressivebydesign]

25. Okay, if Kerry gets the nomination...

And out of nowhere Bush wins.. and the computerized voting looks suspicious, I'll remember the position taken here by many Kerry supporters, that it's sour grapes. Geez.. wasn't that the way Gore was abused when he complained about voting irregularities?

[redqueen]

20. This needs to be recounted

Those percentages are suspicious.

[G_j]

21. yes

and even a hint of a problem swept under the rug now, IMO will come back to haunt us when we raise questions about the election. And we know this coming election is going to be messy!

Set the tone now for impeccable fairness.

[Straight Shooter]

22. Accept this now and we have no defense or legit argument in November

Everyone will counter with, "Well, you weren't concerned about it in January when your candidate was running."

The Repubs will shove it under the rug, and they'll say we're only whining because we didn't win. And what prior evidence will we have to support our position if we don't bring this to the attention of all voters now?

If we don't defend and stand up against the potential for injustice against candidates we don't like, then we better be prepared to keep our mouth shut when November rolls around and it really hits the fan.

Edwards supporters really need to get on the ball about this, and I'm not kidding. Dean supporters, too. And if Kerry supporters are as smart as they should be about backing their candidate, they'll also join in. Same for Kucinich and Clark.

One candidate's supporters will sound like a whine. All of us together will sound like a foghorn, warning of danger if cautionary procedures are not taken.

[republicansareevil]

27. You nailed it, Straight Shooter!

That is why even Kerry supporters should be concerned about this.

:think: :yourock:

Some people in this party are maddeningly short-sighted.

[progressivebydesign]

24. Non-Dean, but Anti-Bush voters take note!!!

Hey. I know that there are people on here who are against looking into this, if it shows that Dean was cheated. BUT.. this is a damn good small test of the computer systems. 1.5% to a 15% margin based on the type of voting? Do you want to find out that perhaps Dean was cheated of a small state like New Hampshire by computerized voting schemes? Or do we want to find out that the machines are working just fine to get past it? Or do you want to find out AFTER the election in November that our nominee was cheated by the computerized voting, and have Bush back in office. This should be a no-brainer for reasonable Democrats. It's okay for questions to swirl around about computer voting as long as it's not YOUR candidate?

Remember.. Bush was not handed the Presidency because of the votes and how they were tallied. He was given the job by the Supreme Court on an equal protection arugment. Briefly, he was led to believe that he was the President, because it was called in his favor early on... they voted that it would be unfair, under the equal protection rules, for it to be taken away from him.. because he believed he was the President, and so did other, and it would do him harm to take it away from him. I'd say that any questions we have AFTER the General Election about those voting systems are null and void. The Supreme Court has already proven that once the race is called.. it's over. No going back, even with massive evidence of tampering.

Soo... wanna take care of these discrepencies NOW? or in November??

[Fleshdancer]

26. they're talking about this now on ie America Radio Network right now

the story is moving.

[foo_bar]

29. this will help Dean

I mean he didn't actually win the hand-counted ballots either, but this plus Skull&Bones will split LaRouche's control of the paranoid troglodyte voting bloc. Dean will pick up 1% in WA and NY, although no one will know for sure what with the optical scanners.

[loudsue]

28. Can someone post links to all the candidate blogs??

We need to post this on all the candidate's blogs, PLUS e-mail the DNC.

Let's just do it, and let the TV news stations KNOW we're doing it!

Here are the e-mail addresses of the TV news stations. Just copy & paste into the e-mail:

[e-mail], [e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail]


And here are the newspapers e-mail addresses:

[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],letters@tulsaworl

:yourock:JUST DO IT!!:yourock:

:kick::kick::kick::kick:

[Karmadillo]

30. Interesting. A couple of questions (absentee ballots, pre-election polls)

1. Would the absentee ballots be the difference here? I assume all of them were hand counted. I don't know how many were cast, but since many would have been submitted before Dean's post-Iowa decline and Kerry's post-Iowa surge, it's likely Dean would have received a greater percentage of votes from New Hampshire's absentee voters than from "live" voters. Before suggesting fraud, it would be helpful to know what percentage of the hand counted votes were absentee.

2. While the exit polls showed a close race, exit polls have been known to be wrong. Since almost all polls prior to the day of voting showed a substantial Kerry victory in the making, isn't it possible the actual results, also showing a substantial Kerry victory, are indicative of a fair election? Even Zogby, showing a closer race up to the day of the actual voting, indicated a strong swing to Kerry at the end. Doesn't all of this suggest the exit poll was the inaccurate measurement?

[foo_bar]

31. conspiracy theories don't need facts

This is about faith and bending conclusions to match hypotheses. Kerry won on every type of ballot-counting system, so the next epicycle is "Dean was cheated by hand counts too". Once that's refuted, it's back to the media's fault. So long as Dean wins in their solipsist universes.

[Straight Shooter]

35. Right. And Florida was row row row your boat gently down the stream

I guess it was just a bad bad dream to think -- shock and awe! -- that someone would actually cheat and skew the election using modern technology. Please. Wake up. This matters to all of us.

:shrug:

[foo_bar]

38. I can't defeat a solipsist argument

If you find a scrap of evidence in "consensus reality" that Dean didn't lose New Hampshire because fewer people voted for him, you'll be on your way to a theory that transcends faith and emotion.

[Trajan]

41. Methinks that perhaps ...

You arent using the term "Solipsist" properly ...

From http://www.m-w.com

Main Entry: so·lip·sism
Pronunciation: 'sO-l&p-"si-z&m, 'sä-
Function: noun
Etymology: Latin solus alone + ipse self
: a theory holding that the self can know nothing but its own modifications and that the self is the only existent thing
- so·lip·sist /'sO-l&p-sist, 'sä-l&p-, s&-'lip-/ noun
- so·lip·sis·tic /"sO-l&p-'sis-tik, "sä-/ adjective
- so·lip·sis·ti·cal·ly /-ti-k(&-)lE/ adverb

Solipsism is the denial of material objectivity: IE the denial of a 'real' world, with objects and matter .... It is an epistemological position ...

The fact that a Dean supporter feels he has been defrauded is miniscule in scope, compared to the GREATER issue: .. the control of Voting Processes by secretive organizations ...

A person may be 'deluded', without being solipsisitic ...

[foo_bar]

45. it's "solipsistic"

A person may be 'deluded', without being solipsisitic ...

I'm addressing the subset of delusion that seeks to deny external reality in order to retain an unsupportable conclusion. I grok your distinction between metaphysical belief and sloppy thinking, but "egocentrism" doesn't adequately express this disconnect from externality.

[Trajan]

66. 'deluded' ..

The typo is irrelevent ...

The 'denial of external reality' ...

Has a 'reality' been estabished ? .... how so ? ..

When we discuss issues like, .... for instance, ... 'cooking' ... we dont ask for much accountablity ...

But when we discuss issues such as: ... the honesty of ... the 'reality' .. of an election in a Democratic society, ... we demand a bit more transparency ...

We demand to see the reality, in person, face to face with that reality ..

Frankly: .. I can give a holy FUCK who voted for who in this case: but I DEMAND that the process be pure ... and honest ...

We demand that 'fraud-free elections' be the 'reality' ...

There is NO WAY to assure that fraud-free elections will be the 'reality', without a thourough and OPEN evaluation of all the elements of the voting process ... including the machines, the programming of those machines, and the security of the process as a whole ...

There are many questions that have been raised regarding the accuracy of the process; reasonable questions that your insults do not answer ... Woe to them that dismiss such 'reasonable' questions without a thourough examination of that process ...

Your dismissal of these issues with no more than a wave of the hand, and some nearly incomprehensible 'jargon' ... hardly suffices as a thourough examination of the process ....

[TexasSissy]

32. You got a VALID link for this? Livejournal is not valid. CNN?

MSNBC? FOX? NBC? ABC? CBS? Anything at all? Anything?

I didn't think so. This is hogwash, and one of the reasons Dean lost so big. His supporters need to focus on his vision for the country, not on complaining about how people and events are unfair and picking on Dean.

[BurtWorm]

33. How is FOX more valid than Livejournal?

[Trajan]

39. This issue is not necessarily about Dean ...

Its about CHEATING ...

Its NOT about Dean supporters, or detractors ..

Its about DIEBOLD, ESS, and Black Box Voting ..

Its about using NEW Technology to RIP OFF DEMOCRACY ...

Its NOT about Dean ... so get over that thought ...

Its NOT going to be 'reported' by the major media outlets, who 'apparently' dont feel that election fraud is possible, or even probable ....

So: .. DONT try to make this out to be an PRO/ANTI Dean issue ...

Its about THEIVERY .....

Its about FRAUD ....

[foo_bar]

50. it's about fear of the unknown

and a corresponding belief that corrupt computers are more effective than corrupt election officials. In truth there's nothing "new" about purported BBV fraud; if realized, it would simply automate what thieves have been doing since Cleisthenes. The spectre of Florida-style paper corruption or "computer magic" has nothing to do with Dean faring poorly in large towns near Massachusetts.

[BurtWorm]

51. I'm not clear on what you have against checking the work of the

computers, or do you trust machines more than people, as the Bushists did? Do you argue that the Democrats may have been overreacting in 2000?

[foo_bar]

52. isn't Gore a counterexample to BBV?

He lost to people: people who voted improperly, people who counted the votes improperly, people who stopped the counting of votes improperly.

or do you trust machines more than people, as the Bushists did?

I trust machines to do what they're told; that's what they're for. They can be instructed to cheat, but again that's a people problem. Any system, whether it's the honor system or retinal scanners, is useless once the humans pulling the lever practice bad faith. Same goes for democracy: changing the mechanics of voting simply displaces the problem. Focusing on "black boxes", instead of democratic integrity itself, is either sensationalism or myopia. Machines aren't the root of the problem, as some technophobes believe, nor are they the solution, as Diebold insists.

[BurtWorm]

56. BBV and human error are two sides of the same coin.

The only way to address either--or both, rather--is to set high standards for electoral integrity and stick to them.

We can't know know what goes on behind locked doors, whether they belong to Republican operatives or computer hackers. We can't know what goes on behind drawn polling curtains. But we can look at the evidence--anomalous outcomes and marked ballots--and draw reasonable conclusions. What is needed is an evidence-based standard for tabulating votes, as well as standards for certifying the machinery and software that record votes.

The public needs to be educated about the process--about what they are actually doing when they cast their votes, about where those votes go, about what they mean, about how they are counted and especially IF they are counted. This would enable them to protect their rights in the electoral system.

In the meantime, people who want to rescue American democracy from itself have to be the guardians of the process.

[foo_bar]

59. I agree 100%

So how does NH enter into this? It's fair to imply the entire process is a shambles, but I don't see how Nashua/Concord voting differently from rural areas is evidence of a specific conspiracy. It appears the subject (edit: of polluted primaries) is only being raised in close races involving Dean. Is there a "Dean only lost Delaware by 38 points" thread?

[BurtWorm]

79. Repeat: NH can be checked.

Dean voters are Democrats. Some Dean voters need to be reassured that their party's nominee is being elected fairly, just as they need to be reassured that the same system they'll be voting on in November will elect a president fairly. It's in the party's interest to demonstrate that they take electoral integrity seriously. Why not check these votes in NH where they can be checked in the interest of restoring trust in the system rather than allowing mistrust to fester? A small, cost-effective stastically significant sample would reassure me and probably other Dean supporters that the party is sincere about electoral reform, and not just when Democrats lose elections.

[creativelcro]

87. And, by the way:

Diebold should have to pay for the recount in their counties because they used uncertified software.

[Trajan]

65. Machines are the tools ...

Processor programming is invisible ... only those who load the programs know which are loaded, and only those who WRITE those programs know how they function ...

You have no idea what is in those programs, so how can you decide these criticisms are purely 'sensationalist' in nature ? ...

Isnt this an argumentum ad ignorantiam ? ...

Could an appeal from ignorance be defined as 'myopic' ? ...

We can brook no apologia based on ignorance ...

[foo_bar]

73. words are the tools

Could an appeal from ignorance be defined as 'myopic' ? ...

Could an appeal from Google be far?

Every voting device conceived in the last two centuries (and beyond) has been cheated. It's good to nip this technological iteration in the bud, but crying wolf on the NH primary gives the cheaters more credibility, by abdicating your own.

[Trajan]

74. Not the point ...

NEVER have voting devices been 'remote controlled' ...

They ARENT ? ... Prove it ....

They have the ability (in software support) to hook up to a wireless transmission device and communicate surreptitiously with ANYONE who knows few passwords ... We would NEVER have known this if Diebold's Source Code remained hidden ...

The 'fact' that this 'hasnt happened' doesnt undermine the argument that its SHOULDNT be possible to happen ..

I worry more about "ACTUAL" cheating, than the crediblity of cheaters ...

I love both Kerry and Dean: .. so I have no other axe to grind: just the one that DOESNT relent against those would take our ballots into a darkened room, and emerge empty handed afterwards, happily declaring a 'winner' .....

[SharonAnn]

75. Aahh, but corrupt computers are more effective than corrupt

election officials.

They're more effectively corrupt in several ways:
1. on a larger scale
2. faster
3. without a trail

Be afraid. Be very afraid.

[creativelcro]

53. Here is the link. What FOX ? I give you the actual data.

You can download and reanalyze. Then tell us what you find, if you find that the correlations this thread talks about are not there. That would be helpful. Yelling about nothing doed not help.

>>
Feel free to analyze this to death. I'm still recovering from the flu and I'm not sure exactly how much more I'll be working on this this week. Please report mistakes, if you notice some.
http://www.geocities.com/mrigurl

[foo_bar]

54. reprise

Dean won lots of towns with optical scanning (Keene, Canaan, Grafton, Hanover, Lebanon, Lyndborough, Peterborough, Durham), and Kerry won most of the hand counts (and won overall on hand counted ballots). The trend is larger towns on I-93/95 (Concord, Manchester, Nashua) going overwhelmingly Kerry, which isn't surprising since their population is weighted towards Massachusetts expatriates.

For the record the spreadsheet has no breakdown by voting technology, just 0 for "good" and 1 for "bad".

[BurtWorm]

57. re-reprise: hypotheses about voter demographics

are no substitute for actually looking at the votes.

[foo_bar]

60. that's my point

the burden of proof lies with the accusers. Recounts are always nice but singling out New Hampshire indicates a personal, partisan motive.

[BurtWorm]

63. Re-re-reprise: Not talking about a recount.

I'm talking about validating the vote. Doing a stastically significant sample to show that the machine/hand tabulation discrepancy is decidedly not due to the method of counting but to the actual votes.

[foo_bar]

64. what's the New Hampshire connection?

1) New Hampshire is suspicious because elections can be rigged.
2) Dean fared poorly in Massachusetts border towns, possibly because elections can be rigged.
3) It's not about Dean, it's about electoral integrity.

[BurtWorm]

78. 3) It's not about Dean, it's about electoral integrity.

And 4) The discrepancy between hand counts and electronic counts seems anomalous. NH has paper trails. Why not double check just to be sure the system is working?

[On the Road]

34. There is a High Correlation

between the days of the year with the highest boating accidents and the days with the highest ice cream sales. Seriously.

Nobody thinks that one causes the other. They're both correlated with another variable -- temperature. They both peak on the hottest days of the year.

Kerry/Dean votes and type of voting equipment are also correlated with a third variable -- geography. Dean won the western part of the state near Vermont, which is mostly rural and uses paper. Kerry won the southwest near MA, in which precincts are larger, richer, and tend to use optical equipment.

There are many screwy voting patterns that suggest fraud. As far as I can tell, this is not one of them.

[aquanut]

36. Voter temperament

What type of person has the time or inclination to participate in an exit poll?

It could be someone who was energized, outspoken, and/or angry. That sounds somewhat like a typical hard core Dean supporter to me. This could skew exit polls toward Dean.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

44. You and ribofunk have excellent, reasonable responses

no tin foil on your heads.

[BurtWorm]

48. I guess you all lost the tinfoil hats the DNC passed around in Nov. 2000.

Lucky you! ;)

(This isn't about paranoia. It's about electoral integrity. Now that your guy is sitting on the other side of the divide, are you feeling more sympathy for the Bushbots who couldn't comprehend why Dems were so furious about the suppression of the vote count?)

[Straight Shooter]

37. I guess that proves the "little guy" prefers Dean, the "rich" prefer Kerry

Gee, that really makes me want to vote for Kerry even more, doesn't it?

Not.

[5by5]

43. Lies, damn lies and statistics

Shucks! You take all the fun out of a perfectly good conspiracy theory. You, you--miserable fun-sucking statistician!

Oh well, I must grudgingly award you a medal of Merit in the Use of Statistics to Deflate a Conspiracy Theory--with Oak Leaf Clusters.

Now about those boating accidents--don't we need to pass a law to prevent boaters from licking ice cream cones? It would be worth it if it would save one life...

Or do Ben & Jerry harbor some secret amnosity towards watersports? Vermont is right next to New Hampshire, so are they also involved in the voter fraud aginst Dean? (I had to get back on topic, doncha know.)

[milkyway]

40. I HAVE LINKS TO DATA...

Here's a link to the New Hampshire Secretary of State that shows which voting systems are used in each municipalities.

http://www.nh.gov/sos/voting%20machines.htm

This link gives the actual vote totals for all candidates in each municipality. It links to Belknap County. To see the voting for the other counties, click the link at the bottom of the page.

http://www.state.nh.us/sos/presprim%202004/dpresbelk.htm

I have not had the time to double check the numbers that were originally posted at livejournal, but this is where he got his info from. Roughly, it looks like about one-third of the votes were hand counted. Assuming his numbers are correct, there still may well be other reasonable explanations for the results. But for me what really makes things suspicious is how excited the media was when they first came on the air the night of the NH primary. All their exit polls were showing it too close to call. The newscasters looked like they were sitting on a stunning comeback story for Dean. Then as the actual results came in they had no idea how to explain them. Is it possible, or even probable, that like Florida, the exit polls were not wrong--the exit polls were correct as usual, and it was the actual vote totals that were wrong! Exit polls are very accurate. When polling before an election, it's difficult to pin down who's really going to vote and who's not. You're relying on vague answers. But exit polls are so accurate because you are talking to only the people who actually voted--there's no need to try to determine the likelihood of who's going to vote.

I posted this info last night and again this morning at the Dean blog. I don't know if anybody is actually looking into it.

[foo_bar]

46. the numbers aren't really the problem

But for me what really makes things suspicious is how excited the media was when they first came on the air the night of the NH primary.

You boiled down the history of religion, geocentrism, and Creationism in one sentence.

[OutlawCorporatePolls]

42. good stuff here.

congrats Exploded View. i have linked u up on dean's page under news. bring it on big media.

http://www.scandidate.info/howarddean.html

if we can tell enough people, WE are the new media..

[Nicholas_J]

47. Exit polls are not even given any real credence for accuracy

And were actually held accountable by many people for the Bush win in 2000, especially due to Fox News Exit polls which were set up to place Bush so far ahead, that many Democrats, beng made to beleive that a Bush victory was inevitable during the last hours prio to the polls closing, decided it was not worth voting.

Exit polls used absolutely no scientific methodology. Simply asking "who did you vote for" to selected people coming out of a polling place, has no amount of accuracy at all, as many people can state they dont want to respond.

The more activist that the voters are about their candidate, the more likely they are to respond y telling who they voted for, which in itself is the only factor likely involved here.

Exit polls are almost always wrong.

[abcdan]

49. Geography explains the breakdown

Most of New Hampshire's Western counties (next to Dean's home state of Vermont!) went for Dean, and most of the rest of the counties went for Kerry.

I think geography is a much better explanation for the vote breakdown rather than the vote tallying methods—of course only if most of the counties neighboring Vermont were hand-counting counties and the other counties counted votes by computer.

[Lorien]

61. Unless the candidates make a serious issue

out of BBV, we're all toast in November. Period.

[KoKo]

62. If this isn't looked into NOW..then when. But, Dean is boxed in..if he

speaks up they will call: "Sour Grapes" ....you lost....now you're whining...." But, if he doesn't speak up...who will?

[Dookus]

67. Why should ANYONE question the results?

they match the polls prior to the election, and there's absolutely NO evidence that anything unusual happened.

None. Zip. Nada. It wil make Democrats look loony to insist that somehow Kerry stole the NH primary with a 13 pt. lead.

[creativelcro]

68. If you believe factor X explains the pattern, then do an analysis

and report the results. That is the only convincing way to explain the correlation in other ways. Just referring to vague demographics does not do it. Ot by pointing out a few anecdotal counties...

The obvious fact that correlations do not imply causality does NOT mean that no correlation is the result of a causal link. In fact, all causal links lead to correlations. And correlations are red flags that lead to the discovery of causal relations.

[Reality Bytes]

76. Analysis here

Optical scan municipalities are in red. Paper ballot municipalities are in blue:



Here is the source. Go to Interactive Map; click on New Hampshire; click on Voting Systems Used. The geographic reason for the deviation between optical scan and paper ballot municipalities is self-evident.

[Dookus]

77. A thousand thanks, Reality

I've said it a hundred times, but people still believe the only possible explanation for the difference is voting machine fraud.

This shows what happened clear as day. I'll bookmark this.

[creativelcro]

84. That is not an analysis. It's a picture.

if you believe in what you are saying, then come up with a varable that captures what you think is driving the correlation and plug in the numbers.

[stickdog]

69. Vote fraud is real.

And this looks like an obvious example.

Who would have though Dean would have done far better in rural areas than urban areas?

How does that make sense?

[theboss]

70. Look at a bloody map!!!

Dean won all the counties that border Vermont. Gee, he is from Vermont.

Kerry won all the counties that border Massachusetts. Gee, he is from Massachusetts.

The counties Kerry won have a lot more people than the counties Dean won.

Thus you get a 13-point blowout.

(By the way, nobody steals an election by 13 goddamn points.)

[BurtWorm]

80. You could very well be right. What if you're wrong

and a delegate is at stake? What if the nomination comes down to just one delegate? Do we argue about demographic analyses and exit polls or do we count the votes? What if this were between a Democrat and Bush?

This is about Dems putting their money now where their mouths were in 2000. Count the votes. If you can't count all the votes, at least demonstrate, through stastical analysis of a sample of actual votes that the system is not corrupt. The system--meaning the method of counting.

[cthrumatrix]

82. what if there was fraud...and the vote count was closer...then what?

it would through democracy into action...better now..than the GE

we already went through that in 2000....

[creativelcro]

86. Right. The point is that the correlation is there.

so, it is COMPATIBLE with a fraud (or "glitch") explanation, though it does not prove it. I have not seen formal analyses using other variables (demographics), just people handwaving.

[theboss]

89. Your only proof is that Dean lost . . .

By your argument, if a Democrat gets 90 percent of the vote in Philadelphia while the rest of Pennsylvania goes 50/50 is enough for Republicans to declare voters fraud.

That's not enough.

[BurtWorm]

90. Do you need "proof" to check that the vote counting system works?

Isn't the desire to test the integrity of the system sufficient?

PS: Isn't the integriuty of the system in question after the elections of 2000 and 2002?!

[theboss]

92. Then frame it in that context

I have no problem with checking the accuracy of the system. You can do that with a relatively small sample though.

But the minute you say, "Look at these numbers. Dean got robbed!! Check the system," it becomes a partisan fight, not an indepedent review.

People are not asking to see if the system is correct. You are asking to see if Dean was robbed. That's a very important disctinction.

The fact people seem to think that Kerry stole a 13-point win indicates massive and intentional fraud on the part of the Democratic front-runner.

[creativelcro]

95. obviously, the candidate who "lost" is the one who is

going to scrutinize the process the most. Somebody has to do it. Nothing wrong with that. Certainly, I don't expect the winner to do that. Did Bush to that in 2000? Noooo, it was the Dems (I guess you would call them sore losers too then; and wait this Nov 2004, when we lose by a landlisde and see then what you are going to say about this issue).

[PassingFair]

71. Huge

kick :kick:

[Dookus]

72. Huge?

It's absolutely meaningless. All it means is that different counties voted differently. Hardly a surprise.

[creativelcro]

85. Still have not seen numbers explaining the pattern...

Obviously, you are taking one (yet not quantified) correlation as being more indicative of causality than another. And that is your choice, not objective rality. The issue has been discussed at length in the past week or so. It is silly to declare there was fraud based on the data. It is also silly to discount it as you do, simply because you cannot, based on the data.

[Norquist Nemesis]

98. Let's fast forward with your position

replace Kerry=Bush replace Dean=Kerry

Same effect? Or maybe that there are more Republicans in those counties vs. the geographic argument. Same effect? Even given the overwhelming reports of disgruntled Republicans who are telling us they won't vote for Bush in November. Still the same effect?

Until the vote is verified for accuracy it won't be put to rest.

[Cheswick2.0]

81. Kick

this matters

[populistmom]

83. I was just going to post this link

I'm limiting my DU time these days, so I'm not as fast here damn it. Something has to be done (not like anything will though). Am I the only one freaked out here? I want to ultimately support Kerry if he is the nominee and I certainly would over Bush, but my little tin foil hat is going "beap, beap" right now. I'd like to see something on this on Bev Harris's site, but I don't want to shoot my own party in the foot. Something just smells very, very bad and I don't like it. Remember, if this can be done now people, it can just as easily be done if November. Again, as usual, where's the f*cking media? Oh yeah, another kidnapped kid. Yes that and Janet's breast. They're onto more important things. :eyes:

[LizW]

88. Okay, forget about fraud and forget about Dean

What about finding out whether these machines work? Do they count votes with a high enough degree of accuracy that we may stake our democracy on their use?

NH should be suspect by virtue of the fact that they used uncertified software in violation of the law. Also, NH is a small state and one where there are not a bunch of other vote counting methods. There is a countable paper ballot for every vote cast in NH. It is a good test state.

Forget who won or lost. Let the candidates agree that the delegates awarded by the NH primary will not change unless there is uncontrovertable proof of fraud. If the machines just didn't count correctly or tablulate correctly, AT LEAST WE'LL KNOW.

ASSURING THE INTEGRITY AND EFFICIENCY OF THESE SYSTEMS IS MORE IMPORTANT THAN WHO THE NOMINEE IS.

Otherwise, what is the point of having a paper trail? If we are never going to count the votes to assure that the machines work, then we might as well go ahead and accept purely electronic, touch-screen voting and the hell with it.

I'll bet Bev Harris and all the other folks who have worked so hard to educate us about the dangers of electronic voting want to kill themselves when they hear some of you argue against using the paper trail as a safeguard against these machines.

[BurtWorm]

91. This is an issue that all Democrats should be getting behind.

Considering what happened to us in 2000. It's in all of our interest--it's in the democracy's interest--to ensure the integrity of the electoral system.

[theboss]

93. Then make that your issue

Don't frame it in terms of Dean's overwhelming defeat.

[BurtWorm]

94. The numbers in NH make me uncomfortable. But this is bigger

than the numbers in NH.

[theboss]

97. There is nothing wrong with the numbers in NH

They make perfect sense.

If you want to check the accuracy that is fine. But don't come from the approach that this is some grand conspiracy.

[LizW]

96. It IS the freakin' issue

It has been all along. The Kerry vs. Dean percentages in NH are just a trigger of concern.

But it has always been the fact that these machine have been yielding screwy results all over the United States for several elections now. After 2000, they are being touted by the manufacturers as a solution to all voting problems.

Problem is, we don't know if these machines work, and if they work with a high enough degree of security and accuracy that we should trust them to be our majority method of vote counting.

My suggestion is that New Hampshire is a good state in which to do a test. New Hampshire did not comply with certification requirements, as we know other states have not and do not. The logical thing to do is utilize the paper trail and do a hand count in a small state. We can assure ourselves and all voters that these Diebold and ES&S machines are accurate. And if they aren't, we can demand that the manufacturers and the states take steps to fix the problems. BEFORE some screw up in November puts Bush back in the White House for four more years.