WP political blog: Handicapping the Governor's races

[DeepModem Mom]

The Fix, by Chris Cillizza
The Friday Line: Will Dems Sweep GOP in Govs. Series?

(NOTE: These four states are considered at this time by Cillizza to be those most likely to elect a governor of a different party from the incumbent. The remainder of the "top ten" can be seen by clicking the link.)

4. Arkansas: A funny thing is happening in this race. Although the campaign remains largely unengaged, conventional wisdom -- among both Democrats and Republicans -- is that state Attorney General Mike Beebe (D) is now the frontrunner. Former Rep. Asa Hutchinson (R) is a sound candidate, but some Republicans believe he is making a mistake by assuming that the race is a jump ball when in fact he is the underdog. At the end of March, Beebe had $2.4 million on hand to Hutchinson's $909,000. This race will move up the Line unless Hutchinson's campaign gets more aggressive over the next month. (Previous ranking: 4)

3. Iowa: This is the first month since the governors Line started last fall that we were tempted to move Iowa down a slot. Secretary of State Chet Culver appears to have hit his stride and is now a solid favorite in the June 6 Democratic primary. Still, even most Democrats admit that Culver is far from the savviest of politicians and the man he will face in the fall -- Rep. Jim Nussle -- is one of the strongest politicians Republicans have in the state. Nussle will have to answer for the massive increases in federal spending that have occurred on his watch as House Budget Committee chairman, but Republicans are likely to swallow their doubts on that issue for the chance to get back the governor's mansion after eight years of Gov. Tom Vilsack (D). (Previous ranking: 3)

2. Ohio: Secretary of State Ken Blackwell's victory earlier this month has state and national Republicans considerably more optimistic about their chances of holding the governor's mansion this fall. In the primary Blackwell cast himself as the antithesis of outgoing Gov. Bob Taft (R) -- a good idea since the incumbent's job-approval rating hovers in the teens (thanks to the "Coingate" scandal plaguing his administration). Phil Musser, executive director of the Republican Governors Association, sums up the race like this: "Blackwell is an articulate, charismatic candidate, will be well funded, and Ohio is a fundamentally red state." Count The Fix as still skeptical since conservative Democratic Rep. Ted Strickland is the best possible candidate for his party. If Ohio voters are going to vent their spleen about Taft anywhere on the ballot this fall, it will be in this race. Still, it's fair to say there is a wider gap between our no. 1 and no. 2 races than in Lines past. (Previous ranking: 2)

1. New York: It's getting more and more difficult to find interesting things to say about this race. Let's try this: Barring a political earthquake, you can start addressing state Attorney General Elliot Spitzer (D) as "Governor." Enough said. (Previous ranking: 1)

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