Turkey and the fallout from the Iraqi Civil War. Very bad news.

[TayTay]

This is a very interesting (and depressing) analysis of what is going on in Turkey as a result of the fracturing of Iraq along sectarian lines. Sigh! Pay attention to what the analyst says about the ability of Iraq to even form a government. It doesn't look good. Senator Kerry, in effect, in his recent speeches on dissent, said that one way or the other we have to get out of Iraq. It looks like it will be the 'other way' in that we will have to leave because it is a full-on civil war that we are powerless to prevent, ameliorate or solve. Sigh!

http://www.pinr.com/

Iraq's Impending Fracture to Produce Political Earthquake in Turkey
Report Drafted By:
Jephraim P. Gundzik

Unusual political stability in Turkey faces upheaval from Iraq's impending fracture along sectarian lines. The birth of an independent Kurdish state in northern Iraq will end Turkey's E.U. accession hopes. The collapse of the accession process will strongly undermine the legitimacy of the ruling Justice and Development Party (A.K.P.), making it increasingly vulnerable to political attacks from Turkey's secular establishment. These attacks could prompt the disintegration of the Erdogan government as soon as the end of 2006.

Sectarianism Governs Iraq

Far from providing the long-awaited impetus for political and social stability, the results of Iraq's December 2005 parliamentary election were another step toward the division of the country along sectarian lines. Secular candidates supported by the Bush administration were trounced in the election, while the broad victory of the Iran-backed Shi'a political parties undermined Washington's influence in Iraq.

SNIP

Bush administration officials blame the escalation of sectarian violence in Iraq on the inability of the country's political parties to form a government. More likely, it is the other way around. Iraq's descent into civil war, which began with the February 2006 bombing of the al-Askari mosque in Samarra, has made it impossible for Shi'a and Sunni political parties to work together. Meanwhile, sectarian violence has raged out of control. At least 3,000 Iraqis have died in sectarian-related violence since February 2006.

Although Prime Minister Nouri Maliki is expected to soon fill his cabinet positions, Iraq's escalating civil war will continue to obstruct governance making it impossible for the country's new government to function. This, combined with the planned withdrawal in 2006 by most of Washington's coalition partners from Iraq, will pressure the Bush administration to begin withdrawing U.S. troops. A U.S. troop drawdown may be accelerated by electoral politics as the U.S. mid-term elections approach. The withdrawal of U.S.-led forces will fuel Iraq's civil war, speeding the country's fracture along sectarian lines.

Talk about doom and gloom. Again, this is not a situation in which the US can direct the outcome. It's full-on civil war. And Turkey may lose it's secular status and it's EU hopes. This is yet another world political disaster that the Bush Admin is responsible for.

[Ian David]

1. How both parties will save face: Blame the Iraqis

"Well, we sent thousands of troops and spent billions of dollars, yet it was still not enough in the face of massive incompetence on the part of the Iraqis who couldn't even keep their own streets safe."

That will be the gist of the unified message coming from both parties after we withdraw.

Blame The Brown People.

[TayTay]

2. I think that will be used internally cuz it's an easy explanation

but somebody, in effect, 'lost Turkey.' They can lie about it all they want but Turkey was a largely secular state and it is in danger of becoming more aligned with extremist factions.

This is the direct result of Bush's War in Iraq. They can spin it all they want, but truth is still truth. The rest of the world will know this.

[Cosmocat]

6. I have been saying this for a year now ...

nm

[TayTay]

9. That was some of what happened after Vietnam

well, that plus the people who claimed that we didn't use enough deadly force and fought without full conviction. (This includes the comments from people who say the effort was sabotaged by the anti-war people and the 'libruls' who forced the US to fight with one hand tied behind their back.)

This criticism is starting now for Iraq. We didn't fight as if we meant it. We should have rained down more death and deadly force. Oh, and the Iraqis didn't appreciate the death we did rain down on their country. Ingrates.

How pathetic. If the Dems adopt this attitude, they should be called on it. It is wrong and immoral.

[blm]

10. Actually it is ALL Bush's fault and the fault of his failure to push the

Iraqis to form a governing body, because he wants to STAY in Iraq and control its resources for now.

Democrats are stuck with coming up with ideas to deal with the actual problems on the ground and the REALITY of how they got there and what needs to be done to best serve their needs and our troops' safety, even though Bush turns a deaf ear to them.

[TayTay]

3. Also, there is a hering on Iran today in the Senate Foreign Relations Comm

This is examining the political consequences of the various Admin moves in that country.

These Bush people are hopeless.
http://foreign.senate.gov/hearings/2006/hrg060517a.html

Iran’s Political/Nuclear Ambitions and
U.S. Policy Options
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

HEARING
before the

COMMITTEE ON FOREIGN RELATIONS
UNITED STATES SENATE
ONE HUNDRED NINTH CONGRESS
SECOND SESSION

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Wednesday, May 17, 2006

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Time: 9:30 AM
Place: 419 Dirksen Senate Office Building

[Ian David]

4. The real lesson the rest of the world got from Iraq...

"If you have nuclear weapons, The United States won't attack you."

Pakistan: Involved in terror, has nukes, U.S. doesn't attack.
North Korea: Axis of Evil, has nukes, U.S. doesn't attack.
Iraq: Axis of Evil, didn't have nukes, U.S. attacked

Iran: Gotta get nukes so U.S. doesn't attack.

It's no longer enough just to have oil. You gotta have nukes!

[TayTay]

5. Sad but true.

Numerous commentators have said that the US chose Iraq as a target to attack because it was an easy target. Bush wanted a massive victory that would be relatively easy to achieve. Well, the original march to Baghdad was, relatively easy. Deceptively 'easy.' Now we wil be paying the price of that 'easy victory' for decades to come. And we have been revealed as 'weak' to the rest of the world.

[peacetalksforall]

7. And it seems that we are always playing the Kurds and Turkish

people against each other. Wooing one and betraying the other and then reversing it - depending on our special need of the day.

[roody]

8. We lost Iraq, but at least we have Libya!