Tradesports odds, nominee: Hillary 45%, Warner 22%, Gore 12%, Edwards 7%

[Awsi Dooger]

These are actual betting odds from Tradesports.com on who will win our 2008 nomination. And a dose of reality for those who insist on leaving Mark Warner out of the preference polls. Or downplaying his chances. Yes, it's opinion, but generally informed opinion: $$$

For reference purposes, Wesley Clark is at 1.5%. John Kerry 3.6%, Russ Feingold 4%

http://www.tradesports.com/aav2/trading/tradingHTML.jsp?evID=23190&eventSelect=23190&updateList=true&showExpired=false

Note: edited to correct to the Buy prices, not the Sell prices. The true man-to-man price would basically be the average of the two numbers.

[wakeme2008]

1. IMHO once he tosses his hat in the ring Gore will replace Hillary

11% for a person "not running" is not bad.

[Awsi Dooger]

2. Gore has been the hot commodity

Going up steadily, in fact from 11.5% to 12.3% in the latest quote. If he declares, I would guess he would pass Warner and move fairly close to Hillary.

I still think it will be Warner, but 4/1 is a fair estimate of his chances right now.

For all the talk about Hillary having a much greater chance than anyone else, yeah but it's theoretically less than 50/50 she wins the nomination according to these numbers. The media is very poor at recognizing something like that. They throw out words like overwhelming favorite, and terms like odds-on favorite without even knowing what they mean.

[Awsi Dooger]

3. Also, notice the odds on congressional control

http://www.tradesports.com/aav2/trading/tradingHTML.jsp?evID=23190&eventSelect=23190&updateList=true&showExpired=false
You have to use the little pull down menu for Visited Events to get to those odds.

Republicans are still a huge favorite to retain the Senate, slightly more than 80%.

Democrats are a very slight favorite to win the House, just above 50/50.

[neoblues]

4. Probably too early to mean anything.

at all.

[wisteria]

5. Interesting all those mentioned are DLC now or at one time and

lean somewhere in the middle with Southern connections. I wouldn't wager any more than a nickle on any of them.