1992: Clinton won just 3 of first 14 contests

[pmbryant]

Dibgy summarizes this at his blog (link), but here it is in a different format...

Jan 21 1992:  IA caucus -- Harkin blowout.  Clinton 3rd with 3%.
Feb 18 1992:  NH primary -- Tsongas 33%, Clinton 25%, etc.
Feb 23 1992:  ME caucus -- Brown edges Tsongas 30% to 29%.  Clinton 4th with 15%.
Feb 25 1992:  SD primary -- Kerrey wins with 40%.  Clinton 3rd with 19%.
Mar 3 1992:   CO primary -- Brown edges Clinton and Tsongas 29% to 27% to 26%.
              GA primary -- Clinton wins handily with 57%
              ID caucus -- Harkin 30% beats Tsongas 28%.  Clinton 3rd with 11%.
              MD primary -- Tsongas 41%, Clinton 34%.
              MN caucus -- Harkin wins with 27%.  Clinton 3rd with 18%.
              UT primary -- Tsongas wins with 33%.  Clinton 3rd with 18%.
              WA caucus -- Tsongas wins with 32%.  Clinton 4th with 13%.
Mar 5 1992:   ND primary -- Clinton wins easily with 46%
Mar 7 1992:   AZ caucus -- Tsongas 34%, Clinton 29%, etc.
              SC primary:  Clinton blowsout the competition with 63%.   

Even after tonight, we've got a long way to go yet....

--Peter

[jean]

1. thanks for this - it is soothing on such a tense night

[DjTj]

2. SC is the one that did it...

...sounds good to me!

[andym]

3. Clinton only won 1/ first 11

But he did place or show (2nd or 3rd) almost everywhere.

Btw, Brown (winner of ME caucases) ran a great populist campaign. look at his announcement speech:
http://www.4president.org/speeches/jerrybrown1992announcement.htm

[pmbryant]

4. Yes, Brown was my guy back then :-)

Clinton did come in 4th in some of these, though he was behind 'uncomitted' in those instances. Never finished behind more than 2 candidates in those 14.

--Peter

[krkaufman]

12. But how many total candidates were there?

A factor needing consideration is how many candidates were running back in 1992? Anybody know?

[pmbryant]

21. At least 5.

Jerry Brown, Tom Harkin, Paul Tsongas, Bill Clinton, Bob Kerrey. That's 5.

Am I forgetting anyone major?

--Peter

[mzmolly]

19. So has Dean. His average is third place...

:hi:

[vi5]

5. So what you're saying is that the Joementum is getting stronger?

There's still a chance that Joementum can sweep the nation?

[jburton]

7. Joementum !!!

It's all about Jo'mo

[ShaneGR]

6. That's fine, but this isn't 1992

Totally different dynamic. BUT, if Edwards wins OK then I totally agree with your assertion!

[HereSince1628]

11. Yeah, the pace is pretty remarkable

Not much time for recovery from any missed steps.

[TheDonkey]

8. Clinton had some HUGE southern blowouts

That race looked very exciting.

[Yupster]

37. Biggest difference to me

was the news coverage.

Back then I don't remember reading a thing about the Maine or Idaho caucuses. If they were there at all, it was a two paragraph story on pag four. Today the candidates are covered 24 hours a day on tv, so a win brings with it tremendous momentum.

Back then, all I remember being covered were Iowa, NH, SC, then the big states starting with Michigan. The others kinds just got lost in the mix.

[cindyw]

9. Yeah, but no one else was winning a majority of the other states.

Clinton would not have gotten the nomination if say Harkin won the other 10 or 11. Most people like to talk about the '92, but they ignore the other factors of that race.

[pmbryant]

10. True enough

But it is a telling indication that the first 10-15 contests are not necessarily predictive of the final result.

--Peter

[Mobius]

13. Kick

:kick:

[Mobius]

14. And Double Kick

:kick:

[LiberalTexan]

15. God I miss Clinton

Remember the good old days? Jobs. Growth. Peace. Security......

[mzmolly]

20. Yes indeeeeed. Didn't realize how good it felt until we lost it.

I remember picking up the job section in the local paper in the Clinton era, it was about 1/4 inch thick. Today it's about 2 pages.

*sigh*

[Skinner]

16. That calendar really shows how front-loaded we are this time.

New Hampshire was on 2/18 -- nearly a month after Iowa! There were only four contests before March 3. Amazing.

For comparison, here's the 2004 calendar...

01/19/04 - Iowa
01/27/04 - New Hampshire
02/03/04 - Arizona, Delaware, Missouri, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina
02/07/04 - Michigan, Washington
02/08/04 - Maine
02/09/04 - Democrats Abroad
02/10/04 - Tennessee, Virginia
02/14/04 - DC, Nevada
02/17/04 - Wisconsin
02/24/04 - Hawaii, Idaho, Utah
03/02/04 - California, Connecticut, Georgia, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New York, Ohio, Rhode Island, Vermont
03/08/04 - American Samoa
03/09/04 - Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi, Texas
03/13/04 - Kansas
03/16/04 - Illinois
03/20/04 - Alaska, Guam, Wyoming
04/13/04 - Colorado
04/17/04 - Virgin Islands
04/27/04 - Pennsylvania
05/04/04 - Indiana, North Carolina
05/11/04 - Nebraska, West Virginia
05/18/04 - Arkansas, Kentucky, Oregon
06/01/04 - Alabama, South Dakota
06/06/04 - Puerto Rico
06/08/04 - Montana, New Jersey

[Renew Deal]

25. That's what I was thinking.

They had almost a month between IA and NH.

[Julien Sorel]

30. And that's the point or the problem, depending on your POV.

Ordinarily, a few weeks can go by, and these bandwagon bumps have a chance to smooth out as people digest information, and the campaigns have a chance to adjust and make their strengths felt. This time around, things simply happen too fast for anyone to use whatever brains they have, so it all turns into a media beauty contest. Dean could have recovered from the drubbing in Iowa and NH, and even yesterday, in a longer-format campaign, but his goose is cooked now. Edwards could have used the extra time after Iowa to fundraise, but there was no time. Clark could have refined his message and got an organization on the ground in Missouri, but nope! The state went to the media darlings du jour. The media have enough of an influence on campaigns; we don't need a format that essentially allows them, and a few early states, to choose the candidate. This format also diminishes the value of grassroots campaigning, because it takes time to press flesh and talk to one's neighbors and so on -- time we no longer have.

[Mobius]

17. 10 whole % of the delegates tonight...

90% to go. Why does the phrase "herry kerry" keep going through my head? Im scared :scared:

[mzmolly]

18. Interesting... Thanks for sharing.

;)

[TexasSissy]

22. Clinton won a primary in a fifth primary. We've now had 9 primaries.

If a candidate hasn't won any yet....well, the writing's on the wall.

Who have won so far?
Kerry
Clark
Edwards

[pmbryant]

26. Those 3 are indeed the only viable candidates left I think

Dean has a slight chance. But I don't see how it happens. The momentum is all in the wrong direction for him.

--Peter

[dumpster_baby]

29. the point isn't that Dean is still viable, but that Kerry's NOT inevitable

The point is that Clark and Edwards and MAYBE Dean are still viable candidates. The race is DEFINITELY not over.

[bearfartinthewoods]

23. kick

[MAlibdem]

24. As you can see

It was much less front-loaded, only 4 states before Super-Tuesday. This year it's something like 14 states before super-tuesday.

[mzmolly]

27. All the more reason to take some time...

;)

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

28. The point is that he actually won some

I don't hate Dean and for the sake of his supporters, I hope he starts pulling it out of his hat, but he was poorly organized in Iowa for all he spent. When I spoke with Carlos Jiacinto, who you know now lives in Iowa, there was barely a Dean presence at his caucus and he saw NO Dean activity but for commercials prior. The relevence of this is Carlos was actually looking favorably at Dean.

Dean's own people admit he bussed people in to fill his appearances. Skipping 7 states after losing 2 doesn't seem to have been a good idea for MORALE of his troops.

If Howard Dean wants to wn, then the states where he has people like Cap'n Sunshine working for him need to get with the states where he doesn't have much of a presence and coach those people on the GROUND level work.

Commercials are great but expensive. Canvassing goes a VERY long way.

again, I hope he pulls it off but actions speak louder than hope and sending your spare change.

[pmbryant]

31. Yes. Wasn't thinking of Dean, but of Clark and Edwards

Well, at the time I posted this, neither Clark nor Edwards had won either, though the odds were good that they would. Dean is in dire straights, obviously. He has to pull out a win very soon.

Mainly I was thinking that Kerry is no shoe-in. Not even close. :-)

--Peter

[mzmolly]

32. Dean is second in terms of delegates, and I feel he will pull a win soon.

:)

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

36. I agree...it usually goes at least to Super Tuesday

but it is interesting to have such a jump prior to it this year

[Democat]

33. What happened to Jiacinto?

Is he still around DU?

[Jack_Dawson]

34. Thanks for some Perspective

I think it's safe to say all of us needed that.

[LynneSin]

35. I'm taking this to my Dean meetup tonight

I'm so on the Dean bandwagon that I'm practically leading the pack.

Thanks for this post!!

[KFC]

38. So Clinton had won 21% of the primaries. Dean at 0%

Just to put it in perspective.

[Tatiana]

39. Kick

For an excellent sense of perspective...