Even if Edwards takes OK

[mohc]

I can't see Clark dropping out. I am saying this as an Edwards supporter, and in fact I realize Edwards would do much better if he did not have Clark to compete with. But at this point delegates still matter more than winning states. If Edwards just barely beats Clark in OK, Edwards will either get 1 more delegate than Clark or possibly the same number. Edwards delegate count from MO will probably be similar to Clark's count from AZ since MO has more delegates but Clark is doing better in AZ relative to Edwards in MO. SC will probably be the only other state Edwards gets delegates from, while Clark will win some in ND and NM. Edwards will probably have a few more delegates, but not many more. The main concern Clark supporters have to have is that if this does happen the media will ignore the delegate count and concentrate on winning states.

[maxr4clark]

1. Agreed.

Clark will pick up a little Joe-mentum tomorrow, no matter how he does. I don't see the Lieberman crowd voting for Edwards, although some of them may go for Kerry.

Clark is poised to take second in a number of the states, and maybe a first here or there; he may take second from Kerry in SC. He finished third in NH, so any second place finishes are one step closer.

Edwards may do tolerably well, but I don't think he'll be one of the top two in as many states as Clark. And that should confirm Clark as the candidate in second place, since he beat Edwards in New Hampshire (although only by a smidge).

I still think Clark will exceed expectations tonight.

[jenk]

2. It's so damn early

as an edwards supporter, I'm focused on SC now and NOTHING ELSE. Anything more then SC is gravy! period!

[dolstein]

3. He may not drop out, but where is he going to win?

If Clark stays in, I'd say that Kerry probably has a better chance of winning Virginia and Tennessee than either Clark or Edwards. That's the problem -- if it's Kerry, Clark and Edwards, Kerry definitely wins. If it's Kerry and Edwards, Kerry remains the favorite, but at least Edwards still has a little longer to make the case. The only way that Kerry isn't going to get the overwhelming share of media coverage is if it becomes a two-man race. The press simply cannot comprehend a multicandidate race beyond today, so if they can't make it a two-man race, they'll award the nomination to Kerry by default.

[jmaier]

5. Possibly

But if 3 candidates consistently win delegates and Kerry is kept, on average, to 40% or less in the remaining state contests, he won't win the nomination outright even with 80% of the super-delegates.

Things can remain interesting for quite some time.

[xultar]

4. Clark should drop out. He should go back and hang with the

grandbaby, make his millions and leave this country to whomever the media nominates and subsequently s-elects.

EOS

[jmaier]

6. I disagree

Simply by competing and remaining a strong anti-Bush voice in the crowd, he does the democrats, and the nation, a great public service.

At worst case, he wins a nice spotlight at the Democratic convention.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

7. OK is a 3 way tie from what I can see

and there is no reason Clark needs to drop out.

[Nashyra]

8. 2 MSNBC exit polls have Clark ahead

[jenk]

9. were those zogby or exit polls?

zogby polls i think, i don't think msnbc has any info yet

[Blitz]

11. Here are the latest numbers from Drudge

AZ Kerry 46, Clark 24, Dean 13.
MO Kerry 52, Edwards 23, Dean 10
SC Edwards 44, Kerry 30, Sharpton 10
OK Edwards 31, Kerry 29, Clark 28
DE Kerry 47, Dean 14, Lieberman 11, Edwards 11

For whatever they're worth. If this holds, it's a huge win for Edwards and we have a 2 man race, with Kerry still the frontrunner.

[elsiesummers]

10. The exit polls

there are some listed at
www.politicalwire.com

It looks damned tight in OK - could be won by any of the three - Goddard says to remember that the NH exit polls were unreliable - predicting a much tighter race between Kerry and Dean.