My predictions for tonight

[Gadave]

I think Edwards will win the expectation games tonight. Kerry will "win" 5 states (with most voters going with someone else), but Edwards will pick up the Joementum and this race will again get interesting.

My surprise of the night, Edwards wins OK, Kerry 3rd.

Dean will onlt break double digits in 2 states max (and sadly he is who I am backing).

Looks like it will be a horse race between Edwards and Kerry, and Dean and Clark can actually benefit by this because as long as one candidate does not break away, there is still a chance of getting enough delegates to stop the front runner.

In any event a good 2 person race will be good for the party.

[davidinalameda]

1. Clark will take OK

I don't see any doubt of that

[Gadave]

8. It was pretty close, I almost got that right.

[woofless]

2. I don't understand. Please explain

how Kerry will "win" 5 states (with most voters going to someone else). If he gets more votes than A or B he beats A or B. If he gets fewer votes, he doesn't. Wassup?

[creativelcro]

4. Simple: say you win with 30%. Still 70% did no vote for you.

[beyurslf]

6. The same way more people voted against Clinton

than ever voted for him. The same is true for Bush. You can win with less than 50% espcially in a race with so many people.

[Gadave]

9. In my mind

If you don't get close to a majority and blow out your next opponent you did not win, you placed.

For example
A - 50 percent
B - 25 percent
C - 15 Percent
Others 10 Percent

(This is pretty much a single winner)

A - 35 Percent
B - 25 Percent
C - 20 Percent
Others - 20 Percent

(This is not a single persons victory, when though the margin is 10 points.)

In the first case there is great reason for the candidate to claim victory. In the second case, the support to to widespread and the press should not act like A destroyed the field.

[in_cog_ni_to]

3. Clark will win OK.

He has an excellent chance of taking NM and AZ if we look at the absentee ballots that were cast BEFORE the media started spinning Kerry and Edwards as the party "darlings."

Go Wes!

[eyesroll]

5. My predictions

Kerry -- Will get 15% in every state; will win five
Dean -- Will get 15% in two states; no wins
Edwards -- Will get 15% in four states; will win South Carolina and come in darn close in Oklahoma (Second or third, with Kerry closely in the other position)
Clark -- Will get 15% in five states; will win Oklahoma by a tiny margin (see above)
Lieberman -- Will get 15% in Delaware; no wins
Kucinich -- No wins, nothing above 15%
Sharpton -- No wins, nothing above 15%

15% was the delegate threshold in IA and NH -- not sure if it's the same in all seven tonight, but I'm using that for my predictions. (BTW -- 15% here means "at least 15%.")

In addition, I predict Lieberman will be out of the race by tomorrow. Everyone else will stick around for another week or two, at least.
Kucinich and Sharpton are on their own timetables, and thus I don't make predictions about when they will leave. (I do think Sharpton will leave before Kucinich, but that's about it.)

[Gadave]

7. I think your are better than mine

If Edwards took OK, then it I would claim victory. In any event, still a good night for Edwards, but if he would have won OK, the expectations game would have been overwelmingly his.

Edwards looks like ready to step in if Kerry misteps, and its good to have a viable backup if Ketty misteps.