Shocking exit poll: Edwards leading in OK

[ringmastery]

This is from Drudge:

NATIONAL REVIEW POSTS EARLY EXITS:
AZ Kerry 46, Clark 24, Dean 13
MO Kerry 52, Edwards 23, Dean 10
SC Edwards 44, Kerry 30, Sharpton 10
OK Edwards 31, Kerry 29, Clark 28
DE Kerry 47, Dean 14, Lieberman 11, Edwards 11

[Monument]

1. wow

[abburdlen]

54. Wow is right!

Folks are excited about a Drudge story about poll numbers that came from National Review Online! This might as well be the Excellence in Broadcasting Exit poll.

[digno dave]

65. unreliable source

If these are the same #s from politicalwire.com then they are not reliable. I read that they were way off for NH primary.

[poskonig]

2. Ruh-roh!

If this turns into an Edwards-Kerry battle, Dean and Clark won't have much room to operate.

[isbister]

3. We might just have found

the true anti-Kerry ;-)

[BigDaddyLove]

5. Or a future running mate.

.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

12. I like that better

landslide here we come! (The winning side of course)

[cjbuchanan]

4. If these are true and hold up...

then it will be a bad night for Clark and Dean.

That said, there are still many hours to go till the polls close, so don't go to crazy. Remember, Dean and Kerry were all but tied in the first exit polls out of N.H.

[ringmastery]

6. Edwards is very strong

in SC.

If he wins both OK, and SC, the media will label him the anti-kerry and we'll have a two man race. Clark and Dean will cease to exist in any meaningful way to the media.

[katieforeman]

9. Right

And I Think John Edwards wins that two man race and then the Whitehouse!

[shawmut]

7. the exits he had on his site for the NH primary

were not very accurate. I think it showed a 5 point spread and it ended up being 13.

[Freddie Stubbs]

11. But it did have the correct order the candidates finished

http://www.nationalreview.com/thecorner/04_01_25_corner-archive.asp#023784

[shawmut]

18. i'd just say

with 3 points seperating the three of them and more than half the day to go i wouldn't want to put money on that order. it's too close.

[Freddie Stubbs]

31. Agreed

These polls only reflect only those who have already voted. That probably includes a large proportion of retirees. Working age people often vote after 5:00.

[windansea]

46. survey usa sez

* KERRY IS BACKED BY MALES, OLDER VOTERS, LIBERALS & RESIDENTS OF GREATER TUCSON.

[katieforeman]

8. Excellent

Go Edwards!

If we give him the nomination, He'll give us the Whitehouse!

[rucky]

10. Can Clark Survive This?

He'll at least stick around thru Super Tuesday, but the miracle isn't going to happen today.

[King of New Orleans]

16. I'm beginning to believe

the Barry Switzer effect.

The exit polls sound about like what you'd expect. Though it should be noted that the rule of thumb is that old people vote in the morning while the younger voters and minorities tend to vote late in the day, Don't know if it holds as true now or in primary elections.

It would be hard for Clark to move on without winning Oklahoma or at least coming very close in Oklahoma and either Ariz or NM.

[grisvador]

23. Clark Supporter

It would be difficult to recover - but, few things worthwhile in life are achieved without overcoming huge obstacles. Kerry is to be admired for the huge obstacles he has overcome in the last two months (the media had written him off for dead in early December). Not sure if Clark can pull off the Herculean effort required - but no, I will not conceed until Clark does. Nor should you conceed your faith in DK. Nor my friends, who have worked tirelessly for Dean.

[Auntie Bush]

50. "Yes," Clark can survive.

IF NOT, then the Republican/Media will have met their goal!
We (USA/democrats) lose again. We NEED Claqrk to help beat George Bush...Edwards only adds another senator to the race. Clark has something the others don't have and we need.

[Renew Deal]

13. If that's true, Clark's cooked

We'll see if that holds up.

[windansea]

15. large numbers of absentee votes in AZ NM & OK

may not show in this exit poll data

[Renew Deal]

17. That's true.

[grisvador]

28. Cooked?

His message over - his ability to make a difference?

I know, not what you meant at all - being realistic I know. But don't start singing yet - of the many things that inspire each us to our candidates - surely you came to Clark for his resolve - for fighting for things worth fighting for...

[Renew Deal]

41. I'll fight for Clark to the end.

Clark is the best candidate running. That said, if he get's shut out and comes in 3rd in OK, that's bad.

[Padraig18]

14. That would be sweet!

:evilgrin:

[Renew Deal]

20. How?

Dean doesn't qualify for any delegates there,

[Padraig18]

34. The enemy of my enemy is my friend.

The delegates that Edwards does get are one that Kerry doesn't. Simple. :)

[Jack_Dawson]

19. P-R-E-M-A-T-U-R-E Much?

Exit polls are worth exactly squat - esp. from the MORNING, and from Republican sources, who we know already have it out for Clark.

C'mon y'all. Polls close at 8:00. Everyone back to work.

[pmbryant]

21. Exactly

The final tracking polls in NH were far more accurate than even the mid-afternoon exit polls, much less the early-afternoon exit polls.

So I wouldn't pay any attention to these results.

--Peter

[Nashyra]

25. Early polls in NH showed Clark 5th

behind Lieberman, he came in 3rd. Relax there is a long way to go

[King of New Orleans]

30. The exit poll was right

Clark finished in a three-way tie for 5th. Or at least I think that was what Lieberman said :) . Take it all with a grain of salt.

[BootinUp]

33. This isn't a sampling with a MOE

its the vote, there is no such thing as statistically insignificant differences. Lieberman couldn't keep a straight face when he uttered that nonsense.

[flpoljunkie]

26. These numbers are within Zogby's MOE for OK final numbers...

Zogby has Clark 31%, Kerry 29% and Edwards at 26% with a +/-4.1 MOE.

This race looks like it will go down to the wire, and is anyone's (Clark, Edwards, Kerry) to win.

[bobbieinok]

49. OK POLLS CLOSE AT 7 CST - 7 CST - 7 CST - 7 CST -7 CST

...

[PA-DEM]

68. Same exit polls had Kerry-Dean within 3 pts in NH (Kerry wins by 13)

A little reality never hurts.

[WI_DEM]

22. I think Dean would be very happy to...

come in third in Arizona and Missouri and take second place in Delaware considering he hasn't spent any money on adverstising this past week unlike the other candidates. Also, I think he will come in second in New Mexico. He is close to the threshold for delegates in Arizona and Delaware and will win some in New Mexico. He also has been concentrating on Washington and Michigan this weekend. We'll know tonight.

[MAlibdem]

36. Nice spin

See the recent numbers from MI? Not encouraging for the Dean camp.

It will be a 2 or 3 man race after tonight, and Dean will be #4

[democratreformed]

24. What to watch for on Election Day - from the Clark blog

Stay encouraged - the dark side will be doing their thing to discourage us. Keep the faith! According to the Moderate Independent today: WHAT TO WATCH FOR ON ELECTION DAY

Standard operating procedure for the Republican Mean Machine on election day is to release demoralizing leaks midday to try and suppress the voting for those they are against. Usually this begins with Drudge posting supposed info from a supposed insider, and then Zogby hits the air and starts hinting - not so subtly - that things are drastically going the way they want them to go. They usually turn up the heat later in the day by, usually around 4PM or so, having first Drudge than others flat out say it is a done deal for their guy before the evening voting starts.

[in_cog_ni_to]

35. Unbelievable.

Moderate Independent has predicted EVERYTHING that has happened during this campaign. So far they have been SPOT ON! I hope the rest of their predictions come true. :)

Go Wes!

[Anwen]

27. REMEMBER.....

Sorry to be a buzzkill, but this is Drudge. The same place that said Dean was just *barely* behind Kerry in New Hampshire, which turned out to be false.

[MAlibdem]

29. Good

My top two(kerry-edwards) are doing well. Long term, this is good for Kerry, his VP will be strong ;)

[Tom Rinaldo]

32. Not too late for more Calls

When I was in NH on Election Day, the campaign made calls to voters until 7:40 pm. Many people are at work, but messages can be left on machines. Go to www.clark04.com for instructions on calling voters.

[dolstein]

37. There's nothing shocking about this

Edwards was always well positioned in Oklahoma, having spent a lot of time there before Iowa and New Hampshire monopolized our attention. And if you've been following the tracking polls, you'd know that Edwards has been trending up, just as he did in Iowa and New Hampshire. The last-minute surge has become a hallmark of the Edwards campaign.

[abburdlen]

38. Now I am scared

Why? Drudge posts early exit poll data from National Review, TPM links to the same article. Wait it's not really an article it's a line;

"According to sources, the early exit polls in most of the states are in, and they look like:"


According to sources?!?
But I heard a source say Sharpton has a comfortable lead in MO and Lieberman has OK locked up. I'll go one further- my source was my talking cat.

Yes it isn't looking good for my guy Clark but if we Democrats start buying this level of journalism we're all in the crapper

[democratreformed]

39. Read this

WHAT TO WATCH FOR ON ELECTION DAY

Standard operating procedure for the Republican Mean Machine on election day is to release demoralizing leaks midday to try and suppress the voting for those they are against. Usually this begins with Drudge posting supposed info from a supposed insider, and then Zogby hits the air and starts hinting - not so subtly - that things are drastically going the way they want them to go. They usually turn up the heat later in the day by, usually around 4PM or so, having first Drudge than others flat out say it is a done deal for their guy before the evening voting starts.

Link: http://moderateindependent.com/

[LittleDannySlowhorse]

40. Marvelous!

Edwards is my second choice, and this could be significant if it holds.

[Padraig18]

43. He and Clark are my 2nd choice.

I like them both. :)

[TexasPatriot]

42. i've seen others that show him in 3rd...

guess it depends on which districts you poll

[xultar]

44. RWingnut Drudge is doing this to sandbag Clark. Isn't it obvious!

We never believed RW sources so why are we believing them now?

I really don't get it?

:shrug:

[democratreformed]

45. What I have seen is that it completely depends on whether or not

he publishes something that agrees with our particular point of view as to whether or not we trust him. Isn't that obvious?

[xultar]

51. painfully obvious and quite sad

:hurts: & :cry:

[in_cog_ni_to]

47. Because it supports THEIR candidate.

:eyes:

[xultar]

52. PUKE

:puke:

[mikehiggins]

48. Oh boy! Drudge quoting the National Review!

Can't get any better than that.

Too early to comment on the polls, especially on info coming from a pair of irrefutable sources like those.

[xultar]

53. So, let me get this straight, Edwards is in the lead and Drudge is

correct.

Buhwawaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!

I was upset until I realized hey only Right wingers go to Drudge for news. So it shouldn't affect a thing. Democratic primary voters aren't going to buy that wingnut bull$hit and do what they have been doing. Supporting Clark.

but still

Buhwawaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!

[BootinUp]

55. This is going to be a long night

No Rush

[Iverson]

56. Why should that be shocking?

Didn't people expect Edwards to do well in the south? What gives?

[dolstein]

57. This is just sour grapes from Clark supporters

I like Clark -- nearly as much as I like Edwards. But I'd much rather have Edwards win two states than have Clark and Edwards win one apiece. The only way to slow down the Kerry express is to make it a two man race, and that's only going to happen if Edwards wins both OK and SC. Of course, Clark's supporters know that Oklahoma is the only state he has a shot at winning today, and that if he loses to Edwards, his campaign is as good as over. So a lot of Clark supporters are justifiably unhappy and a bit suspicious about early reports that Edwards is leading. But this can't really come as a surprise -- Edwards has typically gained strength in the days before a primary, and his numbers in Oklahoma have been moving steadily up. The last tracking polls showed the race in a statistical dead heat.

[spooky3]

59. I'd like to see Edwards win several of these

and see Clark come in a close second.

I want to keep the R's off balance as long as possible.

And I would like for any candidates with 0-3% in ALL of these states to decide for themselves to stop campaigning, so that future debates can focus attention on remaining candidates, but I do not want anyone pushed out of the race and debates against his/her will.

[Iverson]

60. Thanks for the clarification.

I had no idea that there was that specific a rivalry between those two camps.

[abburdlen]

61. Not sour grapes!

Are things going badly for Clark? Yes. Will I be surprised if He doesn't win any states today? Unfortunatly not. Am I questioning these poll numbers because it doesn't look good for my guy? No, I'm questioning them because they're coming from Matt Drudge and National Review Online. How high would Kerry and Edwards folks be jumping if these numbers were from Rush Limbaugh?

[dolstein]

66. These numbers don't "come" from Matt Druge and NRO

They're reporting them, but these numbers originate with news organizations and, possibly, campaign organizations. The "mainstream" news organizations won't publicly report these numbers, but they'll leak them, and Drudge and NRO will happily post them.

The numbers they are reporting are consistent with what I've heard from non-Republican sources. Clearly, Oklahoma remains too close to call. But there is certainly the possibility of an Edwards victory. And again, given the trend in the tracking polls, this shouldn't come as a shock. Clark's lead has been shrinking all week, and as of yesterday, Clark, Kerry and Edwards were in a statistical dead heat.

[dumpster_baby]

62. yeah, you are pretty much right

I prefer Clark over Edwards: his platform is simply more liberal. But reading over the bio for both Edwards and Kerry again, I would prefer Edwards to Kerry, and so maybe it is for the best that Edwards take Clark out now. Otherwise, Kerry keeps rolling. Not that Kerry is that bad. But I just do not trust that much money. I dunno. His wife married a Republican. So how can she be a liberal? I just trust Edwards more than Kerry...

[BootinUp]

63. Because Clark was leading in every poll, and Edwards was 3rd?

hmmmmmmmm. could be...

[xultar]

58. YOO HOOO RW to Sandbag the Dem primaries!

WHAT TO WATCH FOR ON ELECTION DAY

Standard operating procedure for the Republican Mean Machine on election day is to release demoralizing leaks midday to try and suppress the voting for those they are against. Usually this begins with Drudge posting supposed info from a supposed insider, and then Zogby hits the air and starts hinting - not so subtly - that things are drastically going the way they want them to go. They usually turn up the heat later in the day by, usually around 4PM or so, having first Drudge than others flat out say it is a done deal for their guy before the evening voting starts.



http://www.moderateindependent.com

[JNelson6563]

64. there is no doubt.

The Rs couldn't be happier. It's been interesting to see the different tactics used on different candidates.

Their chosen MO for Clark was obviously "ignore". They set their lasers on "destroy" for Dean. Both seem to have pretty effective.

Julie

[yellowcanine]

67. How is this shocking?

This race is certainly way too close to call. Based on this, Edwards, Kerry, or Clark all have a shot at winning OK. If anything is shocking, it is that Dean is trailing badly everywhere.

[LiberalBushFan]

69. Kicking for certain people

who were rejoicing about Edwards trouncing Clark and who were defending Drudge. Now they can think about why they were defending these push polls which were clearly put out to discourage and suppress the Clark vote. Let's not react so naively when this exact same thing happens in the next round of primaries. themoderateindependent.com predicted this perfectly and I'm thoroughly impressed by them.

[SangamonTaylor]

70. they look accurrate to me

within plus or minus 2 or 3 percent.

Oklahoma was a dead heat between three people. That is what Edwards supporters were rejoicing. Edwards came from nowhere in OK and it was a great surprise. The other polls look to be pretty close.

I think you are kidding yourself if you think that these exit polls available online a few hours before the polls close really affect the outcome.